[NL2-NL10] Monster draw free play

    • caltabiano
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Known players:

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.60 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 9:club: , A:heart:
      4 folds, CO calls $0,25, BU folds, SB calls $0,15, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($0,75) Q:heart: , J:heart: , 7:spade: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

      Turn: ($0,75) 8:heart: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

      River: ($0,75) J:club: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

      Final Pot: $0,75

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows a pair of jacks (9c Ah)
      SB shows a pair of jacks (9s Kd)
      CO shows a pair of jacks (2c Ac)

      Hero wins with a pair of jacks (9c Ah)

      I went free up to the turn, where I got a gutshot and a FD. That's 12 outs. And I still have 3 aces that I might count. Should I try to get yet another free card? Or would it have been alright if I had made a bet there on the turn?
  • 3 replies
    • superjunk
      Joined: 21.06.2007 Posts: 2,856
      Check or Bet , Both options are ok..
      But obvisious all hands that have something , will bet the turn for protection..
      So a bet looks strong.

      But again checking is not wrong imo..
    • davidangel
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      Here you have 3:1 odds to improve, plus some FE as all hands appear very weak, and you are tight. Checking is a good option because one player is left to act and with 2 villians you are more likely to get a call or induce a bluff on the river then with one. Betting is also good as it leads into a nice riverbet with a bigger pot. I would bet potsize on the turn.
      OK, lets add the stats to the equation. SB has solid stats, AQ AJ limp in late position is unlikely, he should have Axs, 2 broadways or a small PP. OOP he simply cannot check his set twice and expect to get value from his hand esp with 3 hearts on deck. CO looks like a major calling station, and most likely has enough of this flop to call a turn bet without 3-betting you out.
      In my final analysis I would bet potsize on turn as the most likely result is 2 folds or CO calls and SB folds... In such a case even ace high or a pair of nines could potentially win a showdown if you check/call the river on a blank or middle pair. CO also has a nice stack, and might just donate to your cause should you spike a monster.
      I wrote this and then looked at the results...
      I think you will be pleasantly suprized when you bet your big draws on the low limits, they tend to pay-off one way or another :D
    • IngolPoker
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,482
      "monsterdraw" always refers to a draw on the flop because there you have 2 streets to improve, which roughly doubles your chances.

      so here you should _not_ play aggressively, just checkcall according to odds@outs