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Is it +EV to call IP vs LAG fish

    • stttNNN
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 1,333
      Hi guys I just have qustion couse i think i might have more money to win if im doing this.. my qustion is if its is +EV to call with like JTs on BTN vs a LAG fish open raise from lets say MP. will win alot with this? if we play the fish a bit with hands like KTs JTs QTs and maybe like JTo or something we have a bigger chance to take the fish money down insted of wating for like big hands like KJs+ AT+ TT+.

      do u guys understand what i mean? :s_biggrin:
  • 2 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,501
      According to Equilab -- have you downloaded it yet?
      Get Equilab -- it is free, and answers ALL of these types of questions.

      Here is what Equilab says about your situation:

      I assume you mean shorthanded, and according to Equilab, "loose" open raiser in MP is playing 22+,A9s+,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,A9o+,KJo+,QJo

      If that is the case, then this is the equity calculation:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    58.68%  57.46%   1.22% { 22+, A9s+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o+, KJo+, QJo }
      BU     41.32%  40.11%   1.22% { JTs }

      So no, it is NOT +EV
      The range that is 50% or better vs that range is:
      77+, AJs+, AJo+

      In order for JTs to be +EV, MP needs to be opening much wider:
      Like so:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    49.48%  48.14%   1.33% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q3s+, J4s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K3o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43o, 32o }
      BU     50.52%  49.19%   1.33% { JTs }

      But that is 55% of hands, so if your HUD tells you that MP is openi-raising 55% from MP then go for it.

      On the other hand, even with less than 50% equity, it can be profitable to 3Bet a LAG preflop from the button because he will fold the bottom of his range (maybe) and you only need him to fold some of the time for the whole exercise to be +EV

      So he folds some, you lose some, and you win some -- and this can be +EV if you can play well postflop -- knowing when to bluff etc.

      The downside is that it is VERY hard to put these monkeys on a range.

      Note that ALL of the information in this post came from Equilab.
      It might also make a huge difference if you're playing tournaments or cash games -- you don't say, so I guessed cash.

      Limits make a huge difference too -- LAGs at the low limits don't fold much, and if he is really aggressive, and you 3Bet with your JTs and get 4Bet then what?

        Don't call LAG in MP w/ JTs unless you have great postflop skills
        Download Equilab

    • stttNNN
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 1,333
      thx for the answeer again! :f_love:

      gonna try to work a bit by myself with equilab.. :f_biggrin: