[NL2-NL10] NL100 AQo Shove ?

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $19,00
      BB:
      $38,49
      UTG:
      $20,00
      UTG+2:
      $73,01
      MP1:
      $89,36
      MP2:
      $87,13
      MP3:
      $96,00
      CO:
      $45,44
      BU:
      $57,41

      0,5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.60 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:club: , Q:heart:
      UTG+2 calls $1,00, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $4,00, 5 folds, UTG+2 calls $3,00.

      PFR EP was 10% and I thought he was UTG+2 so I folded but should i have pushed it anyways looking at his stats?
  • 7 replies
    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      If 25 hands is a good enough sample size for you then yes, push it all across with AQo. I think this hand has to rely on your table read of the 25 hands you have seen him play thus far. Is he a running hot LAG or just another maniac??
    • DeKuip
      DeKuip
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 10,985
      Easy shove IMO.
      47/12 and 40/32 aren't stat you should be afraid of, even with this small sample size.
    • allizdoR
      allizdoR
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2007 Posts: 4,568
      Originally posted by davidangel
      If 25 hands is a good enough sample size for you then yes, push it all across with AQo. I think this hand has to rely on your table read of the 25 hands you have seen him play thus far. Is he a running hot LAG or just another maniac??
      be carefull with stats without samplesize.

      utg+2 seems to be fishy, so mp2 try to isolate him with the fish. He will do this wit many Hands because he has position of the fish.

      i think you can push it.

      what do you mean with PFR EP was 10%
    • drachdudek
      drachdudek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      good fold, i would not push except with TT+ pair, it is to dangereous to go broke in this case.... let them fight, i would not cooperate...
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Gerv

      ...but should i have pushed it anyways looking at his stats?
      Most definitely yes. Whilst 25 hands isn't much of a sample the very fact that MP2 raised in 32% of cases ( and BTW lost every SD) makes it VERY likely that he is a maniac. Someone whom ordinarily raises 10% of the time will return stats like this (ie. >=32%) approx. once in every 2000 25hand sessions!!! As far as information required to shove, 25 hands is plenty IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE.

      Originally posted by allizdoR

      be careful with stats without samplesize
      Make sure you know the significance of sample-size.
    • hammiemon85
      hammiemon85
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 116
      i would fold here, would push if i had JJ+/AK

      we didn't put in any money yet, and i'd just wait for a better spot.
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      I push here after 26 hands his pfr will increase again and also he is isolating a fish