My EV calculations

    • arnsaa1
      arnsaa1
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2013 Posts: 71
      Hello,

      I came to the hand which I was analysing and I wanted to calculate my shove, just to see if it was +EV. But I'm not sure if I calculated it right, could anyone tell me if my calculations are correct and I didn't make any mistakes?

      PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      UTG: $1.07 (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
      UTG+1: $2.14 (VPIP: 25.81, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
      UTG+2: $2.35 (VPIP: 25.81, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 31)
      MP: $0.81 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
      MP+1: $0.83 (VPIP: 29.03, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
      CO: $2.25 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)
      BTN: $5.60 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 4.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
      Hero (SB): $2.13
      BB: $2.00 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)

      Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Q:club: K:diamond:

      UTG calls $0.02, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls $0.02, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.08, fold, UTG calls $0.06, fold

      Flop: ($0.20, 2 players) J:club: 5:heart: A:club:
      Hero bets $0.12, UTG calls $0.12

      Turn: ($0.44, 2 players) K:club:
      Hero bets $0.26, UTG raises to $0.52, Hero raises to $1.93 and is all-in, UTG calls $0.35 and is all-in

      I've put my hand on ~26% equity and did this calculations:

      26 * $1.83 - 74 * $0.35 = $21.68

      So my EV = $21.68, is it correct? I'm asking just because it seems way too high.
  • 20 replies
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      if you give yourself 26% equity then assuming you have 0% FE your shove won't be +EV.

      your problem is that you are representing your equities as percentages rather than probabilities - divide them by 100 and then do it. instead of 26% you should be using 0.26
    • arnsaa1
      arnsaa1
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2013 Posts: 71
      0.26 * 1.83 - 0.74 * 0.35 = 0.2168, I don't understand how you've got -$0.16. Could you please explain me?
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Hi arnsaa1,

      EV calculations can be very simple in some cases, but very complicated in others. This is luckily one of the simpler cases :)

      When calculating the EV of a shove, you have to take a couple of different outcomes into account. Villain can fold, which means you will pick up the pot uncontested. But villain can also call, in which case you can either win or lose the pot.

      You determined that you have 26% equity when called. So assuming villain never folds to your shove, you can calculate your EV like this:

      EV = equity * (total pot - money invested) - (1 - equity) * money invested

      Your equity is 26%. The pot after villain calls is $2.19 (- your investment is $1.57). On the turn, villain has $0.87 behind and you have already put in $0.26. You therefore have to invest $0.61 more to shove. Therefore your EV is:

      EV = .26 * $1.57 - .74 * $0.61 = ~-$0.04

      So if you have 26% equity when villain calls, you can expect to show a loss of roughly $0.04.

      Hopefully that helps! Just let us know if you need any further help :)

      Kind regards,
      Tino
    • arnsaa1
      arnsaa1
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2013 Posts: 71
      Thank you, very detailed explanation. I'm glad it was +EV shove :>
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
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      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,926
      Thanks Tino, great post!
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
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      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Glad I could help! :)
    • PerusJamppa
      PerusJamppa
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 2,714
      Originally posted by TinoLaan
      .....
      You can't put your invest twice in the formula, so this should be:
      (0,26 * $1,58)-(0,74*$0,61)= 0,41 - 0,45 = -0,04$
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      That is actually incorrect. The total pot you win when all the money goes in is $2.19. It doesn't matter in that case how much you put in and how much your opponent put in. Since the money went in, if you win the pot, you go from $0 to $2.19. So that's a $2.19 profit.

      I'm also not quite sure how you got to $1.58 ?(
    • PerusJamppa
      PerusJamppa
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 2,714
      2,19$(final pot) - 0,61 (our investment) = 1,58$

      EV = (prc. you win * amount you win) - (prc. you lose * amount you lose)

      We can also check this via pot odds. Pot on the turn is 0,44, we bet 0,26 and when villain bets we assume that he is all-in.
      Pot is 0,44+0,26+0,87(rest of villain's stack) = 1,57 and we need to call 0,61, so
      1,57:0,61 = 2,57:1 = 1/(2,57+1) = 1/3,57 = 0,28 = 28%
      Since we have "only" 26% equity, all-in is slightly -EV.

      EDIT: So actually the pot size should be 1,57$ not 1,58$
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Ah yes, you are correct. My apologies there. Maybe I misread something and didn't notice it afterwards ?(

      Or maybe I'm just a fish, idk :facepalm:

      Either way, my bad. It should indeed be what you said, edited in my initial post, thanks for pointing that out :)
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
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      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      My head hurts now :(
    • PerusJamppa
      PerusJamppa
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 2,714
      I edited one of my post so people don't get too confused.
      Seems that one of them allready have some symptons.. :f_frown:

      Hopefully i got some part of this wrong so we could make this really epic thread! :f_thumbsup:
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Thanks! And no you didn't get anything wrong :f_biggrin:
    • fullofbenjamins
      fullofbenjamins
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.12.2012 Posts: 116
      Nice thread. :)

      by the way I do not think that betting the turn accomplishes anything.
    • arnsaa1
      arnsaa1
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2013 Posts: 71
      Since I had many outs, I wanted to make the pot bigger and if I hit any of my outs on the river, I can win more money. The only mistake here was shoving on the turn, I think I should've just called his raise.
    • fullofbenjamins
      fullofbenjamins
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.12.2012 Posts: 116
      You have no implied odds here.

      If you hit, villain won't put more money in the pot unless he is super fishy. Therefore, I think it's not a good enough reason.
    • arnsaa1
      arnsaa1
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2013 Posts: 71
      First of all, he IS very fishy, since he called with JdTd. Second of all, it depends on what I hit, if I hit another K, he might call my river bet.
    • iMumu
      iMumu
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2013 Posts: 72
      Originally posted by arnsaa1
      First of all, he IS very fishy, since he called with JdTd. Second of all, it depends on what I hit, if I hit another K, he might call my river bet.
      i dont get this reasoning, are you saying he is fishy because he called with JTs preflop ? ?(
    • arnsaa1
      arnsaa1
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2013 Posts: 71
      Look at the turn, doesn't look too fishy to you? I mean... look at the board, there are SO MANY hand that beat him and he still shoves.
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