CradrunnersEV Question: The math of stealing blinds from CO. Is this equation right ?

    • AlHadadhhh
      AlHadadhhh
      Basic
      Joined: 12.07.2012 Posts: 67
      As you maybe already know, stealing blinds math equation is:
      EV=(vFold%*Pot)+(1-vFold%)*((YourEq%*(Pot+YourBetSize))-(1-YourEq%)*YourBetSize)

      vFold% = Villain folds %
      Pot = Pot Size prior to bet
      YourEq% = Hero Equity AGAINST VILLAIN RANGE
      YourBetSize = hero bet size

      Set EV=0 in order to find out the breakeven line.

      When stealing the blinds from the BTN: we have SB Fold vs Steal %; and BB Fold vs Steal%.
      So the vFold% = SB_FoldvsSteal% * BB_FoldvsSteal%

      Now, could someone say to me what vFold% should be when Hero want to steal blinds from CO, please ?

      I tried to find out this but it looks very weird to me if put vFold%=(1-BTN_VPIP) * SB_FoldvsSteal% * BB_FoldvsSteal%
      but not sure if vFold% is equal as I said above.

      e.g. Pot Size prior to bet is 1.5 BB (unraised pot, just BB + SB).
      Hero is in the CO.
      SB_FoldtoSteal=70%
      BB_FoldtoSteal=15%
      BTN=1-vpip=1-37=63%.
      Like I said above, I'm not sure if vFold% = all these 3 stats multiplied or not but according to my own assumption it means that vFold% in this case is 6.62%
      =>vFold%=6.62%
      So, replacing all of these in the equation above, we will have:

      1. Hero raise 2.5x from the CO.
      =>Hero minimum Equity must be 36.83%
      which means just TT+. => really weird !

      2. Hero raise 3.5x from the CO.
      =>Hero minimum Equity must be 39.93%
      which means just JJ+. => really weird !

      I don't know but I feel I did something wrong into my equations above or something because it makes no sense to raise just JJ+ or TT+ from the CO when you have a fish in the BB which fold vs steal just 15% and BTN and SB folds a lot to steal (63% and 70%). This doesn't make any sense to me.
      What am I doing wrong ?

      Any help, please ? Could someone put these two examples and verify them into CardrunnersEV, please ?

      Thank you a lot !

      PS: Just ignore the probability you get raised or called.
      You just want to steal blinds from the CO.
      So, if players (BTN, SB and BB) call or raise then you should already consider blinds stealing in this case a failure. Only if the fold it must be considered success.
  • 3 replies
    • PerusJamppa
      PerusJamppa
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 2,714
      If you raise 2,5bb, to make automatically profit, other players have to fold:
      2,5/(1,5+2,5) = 0,625 = 63%

      If you raise 3,5bb:
      3,5/(1,5+3,5) = 0,7 = 70%
    • AlHadadhhh
      AlHadadhhh
      Basic
      Joined: 12.07.2012 Posts: 67
      Originally posted by PerusJamppa
      If you raise 2,5bb, to make automatically profit, other players have to fold:
      2,5/(1,5+2,5) = 0,625 = 63%

      If you raise 3,5bb:
      3,5/(1,5+3,5) = 0,7 = 70%

      So, replacing all of these in the equation above, we will have:

      1. Hero raise 2.5x from the CO.
      =>Hero minimum Equity must be 36.83%
      which means just TT+. => really weird !

      2. Hero raise 3.5x from the CO.
      =>Hero minimum Equity must be 39.93%
      which means just JJ+. => really weird !
      1. ~63%+36.83% = 100%
      2. ~70%+39.93% =100%

      So, it seems I'm right but it seems to be too tight.
      Really, is there someone opening just TT(JJ)+ from CO ?
      In fact we have two tight guys and one fish (or LAG) in the blinds, should we really opening only TT(JJ)+ from CO ? I feel there is an error...

      Could someone post the results from CardrunnersEV calculator here, please ?

      Thanks in advance !
    • PerusJamppa
      PerusJamppa
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 2,714
      I'm not quite sure what you mean with minimum equity?

      EDIT: I mean these numbers just tell that if your opponent folds 65% you can raise 2,5bb with any two and it's still +EV.