# Probability of facing as steal while in BB

• Bronze
Joined: 23.07.2009
Hey guys,

I was trying to calculate the probability of facing a steal (openraise from CO,BU,SB). I am a bit confused.

Should the formula look like this ?

P(co)*(1-P(bu))*(1-P(sb) + P(bu)*(1-P(co))*(1-P(sb)) + P(sb)*(1-P(co))*(1-P(sb))

Any ideas ?
• 5 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 23.07.2009
The alternative and more logical formula for me would be:

P(co) + P(bu)*(1-P(co)) + P(sb)*(1-P(co))*(1-P(bu))

That's because if cutoff steals, the further players don't have a chance to steal as well, so we shouldn't take them into account, if you know what I mean.

Basically I got confused between these two, since I assumed the following ranges, and get 0.8862 possibility that I will be facing a steal in BB, which looks rather high:

CO-30%
BU-75%
SB-35%
• Black
Joined: 27.11.2008
your formula is more complex, not going to check if it's correct.

the easier way to do it is...

Probability of Not Facing a Steal = 0.7 X 0.25 X 0.65
Probability of Facing a steal = 1-P(no steal)
• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
Both methods give the same answer.

However, I don't think I understand the value of merging these players together.

If button is open-raising 75% of the time, your reaction to an open-raise from him would be quite different than your reaction to an open-raise from the SB

In the first case, vs the BTN you are OOP if you call or 3Bet but likely face a weaker hand.

vs the SB, you will always be IP, but face a stronger hand.

Another way to look at this is that 12% of the time you get a walk in the BB.
*That* seems high to me.

Of course, that is also the % of time you get
66+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+

Coincidence?

Maybe...
--VS
• Bronze
Joined: 17.11.2008
Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Another way to look at this is that 12% of the time you get a walk in the BB.
*That* seems high to me.

Of course, that is also the % of time you get
66+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+

Coincidence?
Hahaha - good one!!!
• Bronze
Joined: 23.07.2009
Since I didn't get replies for a while, I forgot about this question. Thanks Galvin for the reply, the formula is definitely easier, I forgot about the opportunity to count the probability of the opposite event

Vorpal - I don't really remember what I was doing, but it was not about defense vs steals for sure. It was more about what is the impact if I do not defend enough, how much lower my potential "ideal" winrate is.

I am underdefending OOP, but I am having a hard time playing OOP, without initiative, with a shitty hand... Don't know what boards to bluff postflop basically It is kind of easy to say check-call TP and some strong draws and Check-raise bluff backdoor stuff, and barrel scare cards. I usually play zoom, and underdefending is really bad in there, however the player pools are huge... So you very often don't have reads and have to bluff.

I am certainly aware that i have to open up my range (i think overall i fold to steal 65-70, which is too much), but by this formula I kind of wanted to know how much the opponents would be "autoprofiting", by me folding too much

Regards,
Johnis