It's On You: guess hero's play by 21/02 and win $50

    • MJPerry
      MJPerry
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2011 Posts: 4,908



      We'll be posting an interesting spot played by one of our coaches every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

      You have to guess what hero's next play was and why. Check out the first hand below - you have until Friday, February 21 to make your guess in the forum.


      It's On You: what's your play? [deadline 21/02]

      Reads: villain is a fish who is a little fit-or-fold on flops.

      Stacks:
      UTG ($103.35) 103bb
      Hero (CO) ($359.42) 359bb
      BTN ($125.01) 125bb
      SB ($100) 100bb
      BB ($146.05) 146bb

      Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is CO Q:spade: 10:club:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $2.43, 2 folds, BB calls $1.43

      Flop: 8:diamond: Q:heart: Q:diamond: ($5.36, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.61, BB calls $2.61

      Turn: J:spade: ($10.58, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $8.50, BB calls $8.50

      River: 8:spade: ($27.58, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $24.50, BB raises to $60, Hero ???


      What can I win?

      At the end of the promotion (February 28) we'll hold a raffle with all the PokerStrategists who guessed correctly. They're in store for the following prizes:

      1st: $50 + status upgrade
      2nd: $25 + status upgrade
      3rd: Status upgrade

      Cash is paid to user's Tell-a-Friend account. Status upgrade lasts for one month.

      For each correct guess, we'll award you one point; for each correct guess and correct bet sizing (within a certain margin of error) we'll award you two points. Each point gets you a ticket to our raffle.
  • 24 replies
    • FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      Silver
      Joined: 30.12.2010 Posts: 3,107
      EDIT: sorry didn't see player's description above.. My questions didn't make sense :)

      I never fold here vs fish, I know that somwtimes vs passive fish this could be a tight fold, but I call all day.
    • Justin37
      Justin37
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2009 Posts: 445
      since u say he is fish, i going to say raise again!
      Since there are ONLY 2 more hands can beat you, 88+QJ.

      RAISE
    • XandreW36
      XandreW36
      Platinum
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 197
      Insta CALL
    • Rich552
      Rich552
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2012 Posts: 69
      Just call
    • foodprince
      foodprince
      Basic
      Joined: 01.05.2011 Posts: 1
      ofc raise
    • Balltas
      Balltas
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2011 Posts: 101
      MIN RAISE

      and call his all-in after this. Thats the plan

      1) the fish could have quads or QJ but thats higly unlikelly - we loose in this case.
      2) He would have Qx in most cases that would be a split. - we spit so its irelevant if we call or raise if he has this.
      3) He could have a busted flush too - min raise to induse him into insane bluff all-in raise.
    • ContenderNR7
      ContenderNR7
      Silver
      Joined: 21.01.2011 Posts: 7
      Its a Call because we have almost the best possible hand, the only two hands that beat us is 88 or QJ but since there is a chance that the villain has one of these hands we just call. As it's said he is a fish so maybe he overbets because he didn't hit his flush draw and now is trying to represent a hand like ours a Q or maybe an 8 and hopes we have something like AA or KK hero bet small on the river 1/3 of the pot which could make an impression that we are weak to him and he's trying to push us of the pot that way
    • Gibs007
      Gibs007
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 1,885
      callllll
    • Brdjan
      Brdjan
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 248
      min raise always vs fish
    • cleed
      cleed
      Basic
      Joined: 17.02.2008 Posts: 1
      shove. bb fish has an 8 and thinks it is good. he won't fold. heehaw.
    • SeagalSteven
      SeagalSteven
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 506
      Well, against this type of fish I would call. Even tighter fish can think his 8 is good here and "value min check-raise" it, but he can still fold to our shove (he has still 72$ behind), since we have read that he is not total donkey. His range is full of splits / some QJ's, so I see no need to shove here.

      Against more loose/aggressive fish I would shove, or if we have read he overplays his hands (here, can't get rid of his 8 after min-cr).
    • PokerPPP
      PokerPPP
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.10.2009 Posts: 494
      Call for the split, would have folded if he wasn't a fish as it seems that he has a monster hand and is letting us do the betting for him. Provided that he is a fish, he could be doing this with A8 for example, but it's mostly Qx hands that we split pot against.

      Edit: He could even have JJ that he decided to flat pre with. He could have decided to go for the c/r on the river instead of the turn, even when the river is an unfortunate card.

      So final answer is call as we only lose to JQ and 88 and we beat all FD/SD hands, split against Qx and beat 8x and JJ hands. We'll split here most of the time and I don't think we should contribute more rake by rasing ( or put ourselves in a difficult situation facing a reshove )
    • benaars
      benaars
      Gold
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 732
      I think in this case we have to call. We do have a very strong hand and there are very few hands that beat us. I think that re-raising has no point, since he will only call/re raise with the hands we either split or loose against. So call ofc.
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Short Answer: Call.

      Auto-excluding fold, only 2 hands (2 combos!!!) beat us, and villain is a fish.
      Given it's a fit or fold fish, from my experience these ones can fold even when super committed, and in this case we are even deep, or almost.
      So I don't see value in a raise as I believe an 8 will fold and we split vs other queens.

      The only action left is a Call.
    • redrawstump
      redrawstump
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.05.2012 Posts: 244
      Reply to trip q with qto hand: 3bet jam all in on the river. (cos I'm an aggro fish)
    • whentheclouds
      whentheclouds
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2013 Posts: 14
      He's fit or fold, so he had something postflop and he definitely has something after the river. If he had pocket 8s, he would have had a full house and the draws wouldn't have scared him. I see no reason why he wouldn't have raised.

      Pocket 8s and QJ are the only hand that beat us. He more likely had an 8 or a Q. He flopped good with a Q and OK with an 8, but there were draws and the passive fish decided to just check and call to be safe, all the way to the river. After he saw the full house on the turn, he thought his full house was gold and shoved. So any Q is the most likely, including QJ. We call.
    • jonnyZ
      jonnyZ
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2010 Posts: 138
      Call, and just call. Even though he is a fisch there is only an 8 that we can rasie for value and its not even sure he will call with an 8 if we shove. I shove would only result in a split pott VS another Q or we loose more money against JJ or QJ. Putting JJ in his range even though he didnt 3b pf since he is a fisch and probably dont 3b these hands when he dont know what to do post flop OP with flopped overcards to the J.
    • jonnyZ
      jonnyZ
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2010 Posts: 138
      Correction to my post. We dont lose against JJ but 88. Same resoning for villain to not 3b 88 as my previous post.
    • MrTrocks
      MrTrocks
      Black
      Joined: 25.03.2006 Posts: 4,859
      i could not fold here and see somethimes QJ :D

      i would just call

      .
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