variance or just unlucky or just plain suck

    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174
      After playing 47,00 hands in 20NLH, I have been raped, kicked, robbed, spit on and laughed at. AKS, KK, and QQ are not very good hands, they just don't win. Whether I raise pre-flop (90% of the time I face a re-raise) or just limp in. If an A flops, I know I am dead in the water. They win small pots but lose larger pots, why is that?????? If my opponent hasn't flopped a set, he'll river a str8. They refuse to win.

      KK generates much less money then 55, how many times can one face AA when holding KK in such a short time. 4.39% is normal, they say. I'm facing them 6.16% of the time, this is just too much. Dealt KK 211 times, for a total loss of 699 big blinds, 7 buy-ins.

      QQ, there's a winning hand for you, dealt QQ 230 times, for a loss of 952.35 big blinds, 9 1/2 buy-ins. Oh La La!!!!
      QQ faced KK 9 times, AA, not even once??? Lost to AK 7 times on the river.

      Aks is just the worse hand for me, the raise, re-raise and re-raise strategy is not the answer here. Let's see how well they perform:
      AKs dealt 131 times, for a profit of -350.55 BB, 3 1/2 buy-ins, not as bad as QQ or KK, but hey, they're just A high after all.

      Now after losing 400.00 in less then 6 weeks, I go over my hands to see where I am going wrong, in part All-In AK, is generating too big of a loss. Raising and re-raising with this hand, is not such a good idea, IMO. Even in the moments when you have something like AKh and the flop comes 3h-6h-As, you bet, you get raised, there's a re-raise, what do you do? You push of course, with 9 hearts, 3 Ks and 2 As, you have just flopped the world. 14 outs give you 0.95:1 odds, so you have the correct pot odds to call. Hitting a flush by the river is 35%, hmm, means 65% you're gonna miss, hopefully TPTK will hold up, they never do and rarely does my flush hit in these situations, they hit when there is no one in the hand, however. Can't progress this way.

      Those are just 3 of the top hands, the rest is just a joke, except for AA and JJ, won't even mention AQs or not suited, AJ is also costly. Small pairs that hit sets get eaten, I don't call anything smaller than 99 on raises, but will limp in any pair from MP, full house are hurting me as well, that river will sink any ocean liner, as it is quite spiteful and malicious.

      I noticed quite a trend at this limit however, there are a lot of set miners who call any pair at any price, this has to be costly, no?? With these players is best to not to get too agg. with your top pairs, if they call the flop bet, rest assured their 22 flopped a 2 and you're in trouble.

      I read a lot, and everyone advises the same thing, keep plugging away, it's variance, raise more pre-flop, that way your KK and AA will get more action, not working, you miss the flop 66.7% of the time, so adding more money in the pot is only depleting my resources quicker. The probability that the final strength of your hand will be A high is 50.1% and any pair is 42.2%, so 92.3%, your hand is junk, how can one offset this by losing the majority of the remaining 7.7% of the hands that you have a chance winning with???
      When the cards are cold, they are cold, but this is ridiculous, I haven't lost 4.5 buy-ins in a 30 day period, ever, even when I was just beginning. Years later 300 000 hands and countless hours reading and playing I'm suddenly losing 19 1/2 buy-ins with just these top three is just downright depressing.

      Anyway, thought I'd sound off, going down a limit and re-building my bankroll, lookout donks, I'm coming for you. Just keep calling those raises with 6-7, K-9, A-T and the like.

      Peace out!!!
  • 14 replies
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Hey racenutalways,

      I gonna say it the direct way: You have leaks!
      I guess the number you mentioned is 47k, the samplesize you played. Well, you might have a long downswing stretch but 47k hands is a lot so it's actually not that likely that's is just a downswing. Be honest to yourself. You do make faults and you do need to work on that. I can only repeat how important it is to work on your game by posting sample hands, listening to coachings and watching videos. Maybe you could make a video yourself and upload it - that way others could have a look at your game. Keep improving and try fix your leaks and you will beat these limits in no time.

      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174
      Thanks for the reply, I have no doubt I have leaks in my game, playing too tight is one of them pre-flop. I never get callers, adjusted that and am losing even more. AKs, KK and QQ is my leak at the moment, I went from winning player after 150 000 hands. Built a $1000.00 bankroll. Started with 3.15 for coming in third in a freeroll at ipoker. Moved to NL20$, was doing well and all of a sudden, top cards are losing, not once in a while, 90%. The 400$ loss is due to post flop all ins. Nothing more, that's in 6 days out of the last 8.
      I have posted hands here before. It's the loose calling stations that are getting way luckier then I am. Taggs with AA, KK, QQ that dominate me from the beginning.

      I'm playing a game of $10NL at the moment with a calling station that has beat me every hand, I raise with AK, he rivered me with his Q6o, I raise with KK, he rivered me with 3-4. He donk bets every time and calls the raises and hit a 2nd card to beat me, it's won't stop. Playing AK, KK, QQ is killing me.

      There are hours of playing where you are dealt nothing good enuff to call, let alone raise with, that get's costly when you play 1200 hands a day at 50 hands per hour.
      .20cX50=10.00$/hr. Then you get rivered a couple of times, outflopped or just behind on the get go. Doesn't take long to have your bankroll crippled.

      Like I said, I read, re-read, watch poker like no one I know. I study, I play, I am an apprentice with over 300 000 hands experience and still has lots to learn.

      I'm still way out ahead of the game here.
    • gggeorgio
      gggeorgio
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 494
      I don't mean to sound negative, so take this as constructive criticism :)

      If you've played 300 000 hands and you aren't beating Nl20 then you must be doing something wrong. Like tribune said you need to review your game and get help from coaches/experienced players.



      I'd say you're biggest problem looks like you're mindset. One of the main things players don't put enough emphasis on is the mental aspect of poker. You need to approach the game from a point of view where each session your goal isn't to make money but to play the best poker possible. This way even if you lose money from time to time it won't frustrate you as much because you'll be confident that you played your best possible game (which should make you money in the longrun ;) ). The other part of the mental game is tilting...everyone experiences bad beats in poker, it's just that people deal with them differently. All you can do is ignore things you can't control (such as short term luck) and keep focusing on the things you can control (the way you play the game). We're all human so every once in a while we all go crazy after a tough run of cards, you just have to make sure you've on a break from the tables so that you can go as crazy as you like :D ... without wasting you're hard earned bankroll.

      Hope this helps a bit... successful players aren't good because they haven't encountered setbacks, they're good because they've surmounted everything in their way. This is just one of those setbacks on your way to becoming a great player ;)
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174
      Thanks for all your input, appreciate it, in my quest to find my leaks, I have found some instances where I made some -EV calls on all in, mostly when flopping top pair or sets. Fixed, as of today.
      A lot of those calls, I was drawing dead. TP against set, set over set sort of thing. No matter what, I will not play pairs lower then TT OOP and play those little pairs in LP only. Call raises with JJ-QQ and re-raise KK and AA.

      I have had too many sets turn to boats and still lose with med to low pairs, aggravating.

      The other is opponents chasing their draws and hitting the river. Nothing I can do there.
      When they make -EV calls, why are they hitting it so often????? LOL!!!

      Thankx again peeps, keep up the good work. I will still go over my 50 000 hands and try to identify each mistake I have done. ex. -EV(call), raising Taggs with QQ-KK, bad reads etc.......
    • punta
      punta
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2008 Posts: 297
      I kinda know what you are going though - but i have less hands. i have gone down from playing $50 to $10 now with my latest and LONGEST downswing and they are still happening :(

      Party Poker
      No Limit Holdem Ring game
      Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
      6 players
      Converter

      Stack sizes:
      UTG: $10.15
      UTG+1: $10.70
      CO: $10.30
      hero: $10.00
      SB: $10.25
      BB: $11.65

      Pre-flop: (6 players) hero is Button with K K
      3 folds, hero raises to $0.35, SB calls, BB calls.

      Flop: 3 T 6 ($1.05, 3 players)
      SB bets $9.9, BB folds, hero calls all-in $9.65.
      Uncalled bets: $0.25 returned to SB.

      Turn: 2 ($1.05, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $1.05)


      River: 6 ($1.05, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $1.05)


      Results:
      Final pot: $1.05
      SB shows 7s 6d
      hero shows Kd Kh

      Gotta laugh aint you - What I did was make a video of myself playing two tables and then watch it yourself and ALSO get as many other people to view it and GET FEED BACK- it helped my game a LOT.

      Punta
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174
      How do you make one of those vids?
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      By using camtasia.

      @punta: Don't forget to stick to BRM
    • Termi8r
      Termi8r
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 408
      Download Camtasia software and use the trial version for 30 days or buy it for $200 dollars. Just open the tables and select your viewing area and press record. The rest will be done for you. You even have the option of creating it with sound if you wish to explain your thinking behind the moves you make.

      [x] Too slow
    • punta
      punta
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2008 Posts: 297
      Originally posted by TribunCaesar
      By using camtasia.

      @punta: Don't forget to stick to BRM
      Thats why I am now playing the $10 tables :( - crushed em last night so I may have got though it - we will see :D
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174
      I gonna say it the direct way: You have leaks!

      I did find some leaks, but want I want to discuss here the losing with KK. QQ, AKs.


      I'll get on the cam idea, but in my quest of finding leaks and why KK, QQ and AKs are behaving poorly, I discovered that 21.10% I am forced to fold, ugly board, 57.75% I get no callers.
      Was dealt KK, QQ, AKs for a total of 697

      AKs is absolutely the worse hand, raise and hit nothing, I lose 56.43%
      AKs may be a good hand in tourny, if you're lower then 15BBs and you are in the push or fold mode, but cash games, they lose too much, raising with these is fine, but folding on a re-raise seems to be the best option here.
      Losses:
      5.02% was due to suckouts, either the turn or the river sunk me
      3.01%, I was dominated, KK vs AA or QQ vs KK or AK vs QQ 54/46 fave
      2.01%, my opponent flopped a set
      2.15%, i was outflopped, either they flopped trips or 2 pair, straight

      So, in short, the small percentage I do get callers, I seem to be losing.
      In the NL5 or NL10, you had more callers,, hence more profit. Titan poker is very tight. PF averages are about 15%.
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Well, don't overplay one pair hands. If you get a raise by a tight player your one pair hand might be beat, so you should consider folding. Think about pot-control with your one pair hands. On boards where you might be beat, take a check behind on the turn or river to control the pot-size.

      Best regards.
      TribunCaesar
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174
      So it's best to fold KK on a re-raise? Do I play weak-tight??? Tagg isn't working.

      It just happened again, SB, everyone folds to me, BB left, I raise, he re-raise. I cold call, highest card is a Q, I bet pot size, he raises, what do you do??????

      I opted to call, half my stack committed and 4.39% chance he has AA, AQ would be more likely here, first time I play this guy. Well he did have AA, not surprised one bit as I meet AA 5.5% of the time.

      So in short, raising KK is costing a lot of money. When do you fold???????
      When you know your opponent has AA, how do you ever know?

      It just won't stop, I flopped the nut flush, do i play passive? NO, you raise and re-raise, got beat on the river, he re-raised the flop with his 2 pair, boat on river. I minimized my loss as much as I could, by the time the river came around and the board paired, had 1/2 my stck in there, had to call his 1/2 pot sized bet on the river. This is ongoing, should I fold to a re-raise?? I can not win for some reason lately, I don't mean by leaks, sure there are hands where I could have played better, but, what do you do when you hit the nuts?

      I am changing platforms for a while, just to get a fresh state of mind.
      Summer bonus is almost over anyhow, so in Oct. I'll be hunting for a new one.
      PT isn't keeping tack of all hands, I have been beaten twice today holding KK, once I called all in re-raise pre-flop against a an extreme Lagg with his AJs, he flopped an A, but and it doesn't show????????????????????????
    • racenutalways
      racenutalways
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 174


      At what point does it stop????
    • Ave27
      Ave27
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2007 Posts: 171
      Originally posted by racenutalways
      Thanks for the reply, I have no doubt I have leaks in my game, playing too tight is one of them pre-flop. I never get callers, adjusted that and am losing even more. AKs, KK and QQ is my leak at the moment, I went from winning player after 150 000 hands. Built a $1000.00 bankroll. Started with 3.15 for coming in third in a freeroll at ipoker. Moved to NL20$, was doing well and all of a sudden, top cards are losing, not once in a while, 90%. The 400$ loss is due to post flop all ins. Nothing more, that's in 6 days out of the last 8.
      I have posted hands here before. It's the loose calling stations that are getting way luckier then I am. Taggs with AA, KK, QQ that dominate me from the beginning.

      I'm playing a game of $10NL at the moment with a calling station that has beat me every hand, I raise with AK, he rivered me with his Q6o, I raise with KK, he rivered me with 3-4. He donk bets every time and calls the raises and hit a 2nd card to beat me, it's won't stop. Playing AK, KK, QQ is killing me.

      There are hours of playing where you are dealt nothing good enuff to call, let alone raise with, that get's costly when you play 1200 hands a day at 50 hands per hour.
      .20cX50=10.00$/hr. Then you get rivered a couple of times, outflopped or just behind on the get go. Doesn't take long to have your bankroll crippled.

      Like I said, I read, re-read, watch poker like no one I know. I study, I play, I am an apprentice with over 300 000 hands experience and still has lots to learn.

      I'm still way out ahead of the game here.
      ok not to sound mean but plaing ak,kk,qq is not ur leak or hurting ur game. thats is just so silly to think, thats prob whats hurting ur game. your scared to play the hands right because you think your not going to win. Plus the hands themself are great. Getting sucked out on happens with everyhand so why play 55 and have to give some1 a bad beat then play kk and be ahead. Its also important not to over play the hand tho.