It's On You: guess hero's play by 24/02 and win $50

    • MJPerry
      Joined: 03.10.2011 Posts: 4,908

      We'll be posting an interesting spot played by one of our coaches every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

      You have to guess what hero's next play was and why. Check out the first hand below - you have until Monday, February 24 to make your guess in the forum.

      It's On You: what's your play? [deadline 24/02]

      Reads: villain is a reg and generally solid, though willing to mix it up and bluff in the right circumstances. This is the bubble of a 6-max $60 SNG.

      BTN (2,495) 17bb
      SB (2,205) 15bb
      Hero (4,300) 29bb

      Pre-flop: (225, 3 players) Hero is BB 7:heart: 5:club:
      BTN calls 150, 1 fold, Hero checks.

      Flop: 3:diamond: 9:spade: 7:spade: (375, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets 225, Hero calls 225.

      Turn: 3:diamond: 9:spade: 7:spade: A:club: (825, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets 346, Hero calls 346.

      River: 3:diamond: 9:spade: 7:spade: A:club: T:spade: (1,517, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets 825, Hero calls 825.

      BTN shows Q :club: J :diamond:
      Hero shows 7:heart: 5:club:
      Hero wins pot 3,167 with a pair of sevens

      "Having reached the river with our weak flopped second pair, we face a third bet by villian.

      I decided to call for a number of reasons. A wrong decsion will not put me out of the tournament; we will lose our chip advantage, but it's not fatal.

      Our opponent's betsizing is suggestive. On the turn it looks as though he wants us to believe that he hit the Ace and so goes for value (under half pot). However, on the river, he bets just over half pot on a card that hits some of our flop calling range (i.e. flushdraws).

      I think that my hand is face up as either: a weak 1-pair hand 3x/9x/7x or a flushdraw. I think any one pair hand would have a hard time calling on this particular river (overs/flush/Ace on board/possible straight) and so an Ax hand would be less likely to bet this much since it's hard to get paid off by worse (thus he migh go for less value or just check back).

      So, villain's river betting range seems polarised to: flushes (some of which may even shove) and air. Given the odds, what we think about his preflop limping range, and how weak our hand should appear to him, I decided to make a thin bluffcatch."

      What can I win?

      At the end of the promotion (February 28) we'll hold a raffle with all the PokerStrategists who guessed correctly. They're in store for the following prizes:

      1st: $50 + status upgrade
      2nd: $25 + status upgrade
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      Cash is paid to user's Tell-a-Friend account. Status upgrade lasts for one month.

      For each correct guess, we'll award you one point; for each correct guess and correct bet sizing (within a certain margin of error) we'll award you two points. Each point gets you a ticket to our raffle.
  • 28 replies
    • MJPerry
      Joined: 03.10.2011 Posts: 4,908

      Hand will be updated with reads and context soon, but feel free to have a crack at it now if you fancy your chances!
    • Balltas
      Joined: 13.01.2011 Posts: 101

      The call is out of question: you beat only complete air. Even if he like to bluff I dont think calling is a good desision here.

      you cant raise for bluff here because villain is commited pritty much. Even FD completes, he could have that flush himself even Ax he would call. Yes its a bouble but if he folds here then he is in difficult situation he is not a newbee.

      so the only option is fold.
    • BotiaKiraly
      Joined: 18.03.2009 Posts: 461

      Because it is such an obvious fold that there has to be a trick somewhere so I say call
    • SeagalSteven
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 495
      Something very fishy going on here, beginning from the villains btn limp.

      Calling - hero has obviously very weak hand here, 4th pair with lousy kicker and the river brings straight/flushes. If here calls and wins, stacks will be 6bb, 15bb, 40bb, which would obviously be great situation. If hero loses, 27bb, 15bb, hero 18bb.

      Folding - if hero folds, stacks will be 22bb, 15bb, hero 24bb.

      Raising - Hero really should never raise here as a bluff, when villain has invested 10bb's and has 6bb's to call pot of 34bb. Maybe that's the exact reason hero can turn his hand into insane bluff here, when flush completes and hero can rep it.

      I don't believe that hero's 7's beat villains hand often enough here to call, and I'm not a believer that random reg can make a hero fold here (6bb's left, next hand BB). I'm just folding.
    • IvicaIliev77
      Joined: 31.05.2012 Posts: 3,280
      It's On You: what's your play? [deadline 24/02]

      Reads: villain is a reg and generally solid, though willing to mix it up and bluff in the right circumstances. This is the bubble of a 6-max $60 SNG.

      BTN (2,495) 17bb
      SB (2,205) 15bb
      Hero (4,300) 29bb

      Pre-flop: (225, 3 players) Hero is BB 7:heart: 5:club:
      BTN calls 150, 1 fold, Hero checks.

      Flop: 3:diamond: 9:spade: 7:spade: (375, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets 225, Hero calls 225.

      Turn: 3:diamond: 9:spade: 7:spade: A:club: (825, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets 346, Hero calls 346.

      River: 3:diamond: 9:spade: 7:spade: A:club: T:spade: (1,517, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets 825, Hero ???

      Crucial information missing on this hand

      What is that "reg" limping btn with in bubble?
      Is he capable of doing so with Kx hands? Or his range largely consists of connectors? Is he ever limping Ax from btn??? What about pp's , does he ever limp those and if so does he balance them some way with top of his range ?

      Most Jx hands beat us, we only beat random Kx and small part of Qx hands.

      Hero doesn't have blocker for flush , has a very weak hand and calling river without reads that opponent triple barrels with K high is super wide and bad.

      Regarding sizing, opponent weaker bet on turn is doing so to fold us from 7x hand and draws and also to keep extracting value (with 9x, pair + draws, Ax if he limps that ever + sets and 2 pairs). He could also block bet turn with FD and a pair (J3s Q3s, K3s, if he has those in his btn limping range).

      River bet is standard from opponent and board completes J8 and 86 straights (which is just part of his limping range), there are flushes out there completed now also but also lot of 2 pair combos that are in opponents limping range ( 109.107 and 97 from flop obviously).

      There is far less combos that we beat on river that opponent bets for bluff cause its usually capped to K8, KJ type of hands which is doubtful cause he could be raising KJ from btn as top of his r/folding range...
      There is however lot more hands that beat us and without specific reads this is better to fold then to do hero calls.

      P.S. We are chip leader, in vacuum opponents will not triple barrel us often with air therefore calling river here is burning money long run.
    • sempik69
      Joined: 25.07.2010 Posts: 14
      :club: First thing that pops up in my mind is to fold, we have 0 showdown value with all these possible flushes, straights and even bigger pairs so we Fold and don't even think about calling.
      After folding we still will be CL, and will have quite nice odds to win the whole thing letting go with that hand.

      So folding is one of the options here, however...

      :heart: As our opponent limps pre flop and bets every street after our check I wouldn't say he has completed some of his draw. Which means we we can put him on a pair/two pairs even set rarely so we could try to shove and bluff this guy.

      Of course that is risky, and we would have to consider few aspects, especially the fact that villain is very committed to this pot.

      So if it would be me I would like to remain CL considering we're on bubble here. I've read somewhere that bluffing on the river is rarely profitable but maybe it is one of these situations. Really tough one but i go with fold here.

      Greetings from Poland :)
    • atz13
      Joined: 16.12.2009 Posts: 31
      Fold. Sincerly, i had folded on TURN, small chances to hit another 7 to have pretty decent odds to win, and, dont need to invest more chips on that hand. In my opinion, after flop, it was better play to re-raise him to 475 ( considering that on turn if hit set or 2 pairs, i get more chips and anyway if check/call flop then check/call turn, had almost the same amount of chips invested).
      Joined: 30.12.2010 Posts: 3,107
      Yeah, without specific limping range on the villail its hard to make a call. Vs unknown, it's fold- call would be better option if T otr is not of spades.
    • EightyEights
      Joined: 22.05.2013 Posts: 1
      Villian is on a for sure draw on the flop that's why he raised, he definitely rivered his flush or straight. It's a risky call so I'd fold with the bottom pair!
    • martinemem
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596

      Board is super wet, and Arag, 9x, Tx is gonna fold to a shove, since it is a bouble. If he is a reg, he know how to fold 2 pair aswell.

      He probably isnt going to fold AJ+ with a spade, but since a limping range hit this board so hard, i might be prone to shove.

      Fold or shove, never call here. And i think hero is raising. Unless if hero dont raise the straight, but just calls, i think he folds. But im still going with raising.
    • dogma18
      Joined: 08.12.2009 Posts: 340
      Really read specific depending on buttons limping range. If its a solid reg i assume that he will generally raise his top 10% hands to induce, so we can discard that from his range preflop.

      As you check pre and check flop he will nearly always bet to pick up the pot uncontested meaning his flop range mirrors his preflop range, which imo will be usually low pairs/weak aces, connected broadway( that he couldnt raise call with pre) and maybe some suited connectors/mid suited gappers.

      His bet on turn will usually mean his weak ace has got there, however he might barrel worse as the ace is a card which misses your range for checking preflop. Its also useful to know he will usually check back his suited connectors/gappers to see a free card because it is the bubble so pot control will be a priority. So i believe his turn betting range consists on weak aces/connected broadway (as bluffs), maybe some mid-low pairs that he looked to fold out better by betting.

      His bet on river isn't too good in that he usually wont be getting value from worse if he has a weak ace and he also doesn't represent a flush with the line he took. So because of this his bet is usually a bluff. The decision to either call or shove is close, i would initially assume that he would check back most of his showdown value hands, but versus your range of calling flop and turn, he might see value in representing an ace or flush/str8 with his 9s, 10s, or mid pairs like 6s. This will also contain bluffs of broadways. Because of this i would shove to fold out all hands in his river range that have us beat. As our range for check/shoving river is strong he cannot call on bubble with his range as it is on river. The only way shoving river would be bad is if he had flush/str8 draws in his range which because of the fact it is on the bubble, i dont think he would have.
    • Timmaywin
      Joined: 23.02.2010 Posts: 1,080
      BTN is committed and thus I don't think he is folding to a shove. And the only thing you have here is a bluff catcher
    • ragney
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Board hits his limping range quite good. River is ugly and since we're CL I'm just folding. I don't think we have the odds to call it.
    • dbadge09
      Joined: 27.08.2010 Posts: 1
      Fold, easy fold
    • Benji009
      Joined: 08.02.2009 Posts: 659
      I think it's an easy fold. If you just call, there's not much we beat except from a pure bluff, but his range could have hit the board as well, especially with such an ugly river card.

      He might be bluffing yes, but it still is a guessing game and on the bubble...i prefer not to take the risk. I also think a raise would be better than just the call, at least if we weren't on the bubble. So i'd fold.
    • DelPane
      Joined: 28.05.2013 Posts: 60
      a c/shove for bluff is pretty possible, call is impossible IMO. By check raising hero can make him fold anything less than AQ (maybe even AK) both cards turn and river are nice to bluff on, calling is not possible IMO because hero will be behind the bluffing range a lot of times, check raise is fine because villain is a reg enough to know he will almost never be ahead with an A, because we made alot of straights and flushs on this river, and all this draws might be on our range. He can fold even two pairs or sets due to the bubble factor, the only problem here is the stack, he is pretty commited, but yes, we definely have tons of fold equity, otherwise the fact that his stack is short have a good side, we lose less when he calls, and even if he calls and we lost (obviously he will never call with a worst hand here) we still have a medium stack.
    • Brdjan
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 243
      Fold, because of the spade on river
    • vikasgupta09
      Joined: 18.05.2011 Posts: 352
      villian didnt raised preflop , he wud obviously not be trapping with any higher pairs, as this is not really that level to trap someone. so his range and reason behind calling was a small pair or small suited connector that he might hit..
      After flop, his betting could either mean stealing or he might be holding 45s or 45o, or 3x , or 7x, or 9x
      Hero calls as it is very standard flop raise nd hero might hit a 5 or even another 7 for his three of a kind.
      Ace on the turn would surely be of no profit to villian , if he was holding Ax then he must have raised preflop. His continuation bet on turn is comparatively smaller representing a little weak hand , calling here represents hero holds something like Ax or a chance to hit flush draw or a straight, if he is regular he will understand this.
      Now the pot is 1517, and villian is having a stack of 1774 (12 BB) he raised 825 (more than 50% of the pot) Now what does he raise represent here, a straight , a flush , or 2 pairs (less chance) but so far with hero calling, hero is also trying to represent a good hand, if hero is not folding on flop and turn, folding at river is not a good option because he must be having a good read on his bluffing range.
      Hero shoves here representing a flush draw, having a certain fold equity( though not really good but still some) hero shoves represent a really strong hand to any regular, the range for calling even after villain puts so much in the pot will be only high, he wont be able to call with a pair or two and must be holding a straight or flush to call which will happen only 2 out of 5 times according to my experience.
      So shoving here as a bluff could be hero's play.
    • Ayahuaski
      Joined: 06.01.2013 Posts: 19
      Sure we need a read on his limping range, but in the absence of more information I tend to think hero is planning to shove the river and force the villain to fold better hands. Otherwise I see no point in calling two barrels with such a weak hand and then folding to a medium bet on the river (or just calling the river). Obviously the villain is pot committed but in the bubble he's likely to fold some hands better than our pair of 7's, we're forcing him to make a very difficult decision and even if we fail, we're still alive!
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