a math question!

    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      Let’s say we are at the sb and we shove a 40k stack to the bb that covers us.

      We know that he is going to fold 70% and that if we called we have 35% equity
      Is this information enough to calculate if this is profitable or not? And if yes how!?
  • 4 replies
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Hi, w4terman!

      It's not. It depends on how many Big blinds that 40k stack is : )

      If it's 100bb it's one number, if it's 10bb effective, than it's a completely different result :)
    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      ok lets say around 13bb effective stacks
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      (Lol, managed to squeeze in 234 errors in my first two edits.)

      ES_shove = ES_BB_calls*probability_BB_calls + ES_BB_folds*probability_BB_folds.

      ES_BB_calls = pot_size_bb_calls*equity_bb_calls = (1sb + 1bb + 2*effective_stack)*equity_bb_calls

      ES_BB_folds = pot_size_bb_folds = (1sb + 1bb + 1*effective_stack)

      ES_fold = effective_stack

      You take it from here. ES_* stands for "Expected Stack in case *".
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Oke, so if effective stack size is 13bb, we push-he calls us 70%(I put power call-22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o-which is 70.14%), our hand is 53o that has 34.12% equity vs this range and this way-it's minus ev. It's gonna be a losing play in the long run by a lil over than 3bb on average. If he calls that loose with that exact range, we need to be pushing about 41% of hands which includes these ones-22+,A2+,K2s+,K4o+,Q5s+,Q8o+,J8s+,J9o+,T9s in order to show profit. I used ICMizer and pokerstrategy equilab.


      Note, these are all calculations that are done with no risk aversion or icm tax taken in consideration.