It's On You: guess hero's play by 26/02 and win $50

    • MJPerry
      Joined: 03.10.2011 Posts: 4,910

      We'll be posting an interesting spot played by one of our coaches every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

      You have to guess what hero's next play was and why. Check out the first hand below - you have until Wednesday, February 26 to make your guess in the forum.

      It's On You: what's your play? [deadline 26/02]

      Reads: CO is tight, playing 16/8 over around 300 hands.

      UTG ($472.12) 472bb
      UTG+1 ($75.44) 75bb
      CO ($221.24) 221bb
      Hero (BTN) ($287.11) 287bb
      SB ($97.82) 98bb
      BB ($103.40) 103bb

      Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN A:spade: K:diamond:
      2 folds, CO raises to $3, Hero raises to $9, 2 folds, CO raises to $20, Hero calls $12

      Flop: Q:spade: 5:spade: 5:heart: ($41.50, 2 players)
      CO checks, Hero checks

      Turn: J:spade: ($41.50, 2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $24, CO calls $24

      River: 10:diamond: ($89.50, 2 players)
      CO goes all-in $177.24, Hero ???

      CO shows 2 :heart: 2 :club:
      Hero shows A :spade: K :diamond:
      Hero wins $442.18 with a straight, ace high.

      "CO is tight/fishy guy playing 16/8 over small ~300h no reads on river tendencies.

      Villain's line made no sense with anything, his QQ/JJ would most likely value bet themselves by the turn as would his flushes.

      On top of that we block all nut flushes. he could have AK himself or maybe TT, but most likely hes just spazzing with crap so should be a call. Most people would fold here because "QQ-TT and flushes are all in his range", but I think most of them actually are not in his range in this specific spot, despite this being a 4bet pot.

      It's more likely has complete crap or is turning some sort of weak made hand into a bluff like maybe AA or KK which I block too."

      What can I win?

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  • 30 replies
    • Ayahuaski
      Joined: 06.01.2013 Posts: 19

      Since he's a tight player his 4betting range shoudn't go far from JJ+ AK, making the full house a probable hand to put the villain on. I think he got it and he hopes that we hit a flush or straight and we'll pay for his overbet. I don't think he's bluffing because JJ and QQ are probable holdings for us too, since they fit in our call4bet range, so why could he possibly shove with less than that?
    • vikasgupta09
      Joined: 18.05.2011 Posts: 352
      Hero folds..
      If CO is a tight player , he will not be shoving wide with smaller pairs...He definitely have a strong pair , most likely AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT
      out of which i believe in this hand he is holding QQ or JJ, i do also think he might hold AKs, AQs but the shove on river in some way eliminates this range
    • SeagalSteven
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 891

      16/8 doesn't seem that solid player, so his 4-bet is for value for sure.

      Villain goes c, c/c, and then donk-shoves. I just think it's very strong hand, here QQ, that wishes hero hits something he likes and then gets the money in. It's a bit suspicious that he doesn't go crai on river when hero could've flushes, straights here that will bet for value, but still not enough for me to level myself calling here.
    • kidzoltan
      Joined: 05.08.2010 Posts: 870
      Answer: FOLD. If CO is a tight player he's 4bet range will be very strong QQ+,AK. But looking at he's betsize on the river I think he shoves only QQ here. He can't have a flush because we hold the Ace of Spade. Assuming he's not a bad player, he probably realized that we can have a straight or flush with AK or Full House TT,JJ, so he tries to get maximum value.
    • hipkiss
      Joined: 08.02.2010 Posts: 3
      We can completely rull out a flush as we hold the As. Combinatorically it is extremely unlikely for CO to show up with a flush here. A(c,h,d)Ks might continue with but i doubt they would 4bet preflop too much, maybe just flat due to being OOP.
      The bet is again, extremely polarizing.
      1. 4bet preflop in any game is QQ+ maybe AKs. However it is possible to open that range to maybe 10s+ and AQs+ as the game is 6 handed.
      2. If he was 4betting preflop with the intention of bluffing then we can expect aggression on future streets. Which leads me to my next point.
      3. Preflop CO is aggressive, post-flop CO is very passive (check-call), untill the river. This line makes little sense. It's not a maximum value line.

      He either has 10s QQs or nothing. By nothing i mean either a bluff or KK+.
      But i don't see 10s or JJs 4 betting preflop. CO is 16/8, which means hes only doing this with extremely strong hands. Also, he might not know where his fold button is when holding REALLY strong hands.
    • bogdan12345
      Joined: 09.06.2010 Posts: 8
      Even a tight player makes a bluff once in a while. He doesn't have flush.
    • HonestAbe200
      Joined: 05.06.2013 Posts: 2
      Preflop you can pretty much rule out small pocket pairs 4-betting from the CO, presuming Hero is mildly aggressive. Hero unless he’s really unlucky is not really the kind I’d classify as a preflop stealer based on rudimentary stack size info. So CO should be putting you on exactly what you have.

      On the flop, the board should be innocuous for someone with AK to c-bet and see what happens. The only hands that might be wary of what the Hero is holding are JJ and TT … no chance he’s drawing to a flush in his range without A-s… can rule out CO having AA or KK because of the odds and how it played out. He could have QQ for the nuts and is waiting for you to push in more chips. The check back on the flop is really the only mistake I see in how the Hero played this hand. Would like a bet there and rep the QQ or AQ, instead of basically letting him know you have AK.

      Free card comes and the check call makes me think it’s QQ or JJ got there… KK or AA would probably lead out or raise - but not betting on those hands being in the CO’s hand, even if its 200bb+ deep.

      The shove on the river is never happening without A-s if representing a flush, or with TT. Would expect a blocker bet there with those hands… With the preflop 4-bet, I’m leaning towards QQ or JJ.

      The right thing to do here? We’re getting less than optimal odds and we can’t really beat any hands in his range, even if in the CO. Broadway is no good most of the time in this spot.

      Don’t have any physical tells to work with, so Hero folds.
    • GiJoe883
      Joined: 28.10.2009 Posts: 7

      as CO is playing fairly tight and snug and we were four bet...we can put his range squarely with JJ+

      there is not much he can be bluffing with the way this was played and there is not much that we beat here (except bluff hands)...we have no indication this player 4 bets with the range required for us to be able to call.

      the two hands we do beat that could be in his 4 bet range AA and KK would not play the way they did ...i.e. the check call on turn coupled with the the river shove would rule out those two hands.

      the way the hand played out is in my opinion a clear indication of villains holdings

      the chances of Broadway being good here are extremely minute.
    • whillee
      Joined: 23.08.2012 Posts: 10
      I think we are beaten by full house

      Villain made strong pre-flop play and slowplayed on the flop. And checks turn also, when spade comes out. That looks weak play, and is making hero to semi-bluff with flush and straight draw. On the river comes T what gives us straight, but it is pretty weak to call all-in when board is paired and flush is possible. Flush is possible for villain, but does not make sense to me because of that preflop play. Can't have A, Q or J of spades, i think T9 of spades could be possible, but since pre-flop action went that way i don't think so. And would he/she risk whole stack to just that? I think villain haves QQ or JJ and because of that we should fold our weaker hand to full house.
    • BotiaKiraly
      Joined: 18.03.2009 Posts: 461

      If he is so tight I don't think it is likely that he 4bet bluffs often, which excludes hands like K5, or A5.

      His value 4bet range is QQ+, AK, maybe JJ.

      His postflop play can either be a slowplay with the nuts, or a poor play with AK

      even if we take out JJ from his range on the river which lleaves us with QQ or AK there is not enough equity to call this.

      + The pot isn't that big, and the most we are hoping for is a split and we have to invest 177BB for it
    • AtrociousNightmare
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Short Answer: Fold.

      I'd make it a problem of odds here given the lack of info/notes.
      A 16/8 on NL100 can't survive for long unless it's really super tight.
      A 4b from such a player is therefore QQ+, AK (rarely JJ).
      16/8 indicates passivity: the difference between VPIP/PFR is too high for such a range. So, it's a bad nit I'd say.

      Given the type of image xe knows xe has on the table, I wouldn't be surprised at such a slowplay with QQ (which would go with the typical "omg I'm on the river and the pot is so small with my nuts what do I do" DONK ALL-IN type of action). Or a badly played AK.

      I never see a bluff here, or it'd be too variance heavy to call to see a split anyway.

      We need to invest 177.24 for a (221.24*2+1.5) pot = .399% equity needed.
      Against QQ,AKs,AKo we are at 37.5%.

    • clawindsouza
      Joined: 08.12.2009 Posts: 7,085
      Fold. Looks very much like a full house.

      A player who is that tight would only 4bet super strong hands. The check on the flop would either mean that he has JJ (highly unlikely to be in his 4bet range though although we would need to look at his stats to be sure),QQ or maybe AK. I think AA and KK would just cbet this board. In fact I think even AK would cbet here almost 100% of the time.

      Hence I think its a pretty easy fold on the river. The more you think about it, the more folding makes sense. :)
    • kikopego93
      Joined: 06.03.2011 Posts: 1,044
      I think that the 4beter would cbet AQs(in case he 4bets that what I do not believe), AA KK AK, and check something like 1010, JJ, QQ.

      So he reaches turn with 1010 JJ QQ... IMO.

      4 combinations of QQ
      4combinations of JJ
      6combinations of 1010

      He folds 1010 on that turn bet.

      River is a 10.

      CO goes all in with is 8 out of 8 full house combinations. So i fold.
    • CPallo
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,350
      Actually this is a great spot to make a hero-fold.

      CO is only 16/9, so I think we will see him 4-betting very tight range here.

      When he just checks flop he is going to ch/call us or just give up with random blockers (which he shouldn't have, unless you have dynamics). I think he is often just slowplaying here.

      On turn I'd bet, too, to see where are we going.

      River is fold. I think we are having a split at best.
    • philesse
      Joined: 06.02.2014 Posts: 1

      CO, being a tight player 4betting preflop may have a big pair. In this particular scenario, he may have 10 10 and hit full house on the river so he went all in on the river. Otherwise, he had JJ and had hit full house on the turn but decided to just check call on the turn (so as not to show the strength of his hand, hoping that Hero would think he's bluffing and call his all in bet on the river).
    • pasqua544
      Joined: 07.06.2010 Posts: 4
      it is obvious to me that he is going to attempt you to fold a split pot and cash in alone... but you call and the pot is split
    • Justin37
      Joined: 25.07.2009 Posts: 445

      A tight player will only go all in with absolute winning hand or 2nd best winning hand.
      You only spend around 8% - 15% of your stack here. Calling n lose, you lose 100%.
      The board is so dangerous, Full House, Flush, and Strght. Dont believe the CO got 5555 (not make sense). The CO should have at least QQ,JJ,TT, Flush. Even if i have AK i will not go all in with this kind of dangerous board.

      PS: Unless he is bluffing? But how do we know when a tight player is bluffing?By spending $200 to see if he is bluffing or not :)
    • ZvonkoDus
      Joined: 25.02.2014 Posts: 1
      Fold,he has full house.
    • motzy92
      Joined: 04.10.2011 Posts: 7
      Definitely Fold. He 4bets PF QQ+ rarely JJ so on that board he has a lot of times a full house. He shoves because he thinks we have flush, and shoves for value.
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