[NL2-NL10] NL100 opponent bluff or valuebet?

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      • 26.10.2008, 23:58
      • This post has been edited 2 time(s), it was last edited by DaPhunk: 27.10.2008 00:01.
      Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (10 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      SB ($113.67)
      BB ($200.65)
      UTG ($69.92)
      UTG+1 ($25.14)
      Hero (MP1) ($21.18)
      MP2 ($52.28)
      MP3 ($117.43)
      CO ($85.03)
      Button ($100)

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9, 9
      2 folds, Hero raises $4, 5 folds, UTG calls $3

      Flop: ($8.50) 2, 6, 6 (2 players)
      UTG bets $2, Hero raises $7, UTG calls $5

      Turn: ($22.50) A (2 players)
      UTG bets $27, [color=#666666][i]Hero????

      Villain stats are 30/2 his AF is 2.3 WTS = 19

      So do you think the Villain is ever bluffing this spot?

      We have to call $10 to win $30 so we need to win just 33% of the time to make a call allright. So i have given a reason why i may fold, and one why i would call.

      Fold because - Villain may know i only need to win 33% of the time and so realises he has less F.E and therefore pushes with stronger hands that beat me.

      Call because - Only raising 2% of hands is kind of stupid imo... Villain probably doesn't know what he is doing so may well bluff in this spot enough for a call to be profitable.

      Don't forget Villain could think we are just raising him on flop with nothing and try and bluff us out of the pot on any scarecard as well!


      So, do we Call or Fold?
  • 5 replies
    • kukkiwonBG
      kukkiwonBG
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      I thing you must shove on the flop. After his donk bet (I did not understand how you act first pre-flop) you must raise to $8-9 and you have only $17 left. He may have 2x or two overcards and on a turn like that you must fold. So shove the flop for max FE. He don't have big WTS value but with this kind of post flop aggression and 2 PRF this bet don't mean 6 or overpair most of the time.
    • drachdudek
      drachdudek
      Gold
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      push flop in this case you dont have to worry if he is bluffing or not and you have higher fold equity....
    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      donk da donk donk
      These stats are clearly a chum-limper. This player raises AA-QQ preflop, all other hands they must see a flop first. AF 2.3 with low wts means this player overbets players off pots. If the W$SD is also low, then they are simply bluffers. Betting 1/4 pot into the PFA oop is just a bad, bad play, and I would punish them with an all-in. Furthermore, they flatcall and then donk the turn, how do you go from underbet pot, to overbet pot? By being a chum, thats how. Yes, they might have TT or JJ, or even QQ or a random 6, but most likely they have 22-88 or suited broadways.
      Best way to handle this chum is to get them into the pot, and then steal all the fire by going all-in, they have no idea how to play against thier own game and often end up being a calling station, or going on tilt...
      My thoughts for you.
    • IngolPoker
      IngolPoker
      Black
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,473
      raise flop higher, probably all in is best
      as played, fold turn


      how does UTG get in the hand? did he limp? then raise more preflop :)
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by IngolPoker

      how does UTG get in the hand? did he limp? then raise more preflop :)
      I think they were actually BB. Crazy hand history converter :p