ICM vs Live reads

    • vaulsc
      Joined: 28.06.2012 Posts: 124
      I've played 75-100 MTT's, most 180 man's online at PS, all at micro/low stakes.

      Recently I've been getting into some live tournaments that are 30-50 players, with buy-in varying from $20 to $200. One thing that often feels like it could present a problem is the unpredictability of very weak live players when it comes to final table situations.

      Take this scenario, where players are on the bubble.

      Hero (BB) - 23bb's
      Player 1 (SB) - 65 bb's
      Player 2 (Button) - 11 bb's
      Player 3 (UTG) - Less than 1 bb.

      This is a live tournament, and we have a read on Player 1, that he is a fishy player that very often makes highly irrational decisions, most of which make no sense from an ICM perspective.

      Player 3 folds UTG, then Player 2 shoves on the button. Player 1 flat calls. Hero holds AA.

      We know that Player 3 is going to have to pay his entire stack at the big blind next hand, so obviously we have a great chance of making it into the money by just waiting. However,

      - What if Player 1 re-shoves instead of flat calling? Do we call? Or wait?
      - Assuming Player 1 flats in the example above, is there any sense re-shoving ourselves, knowing that Player 1 is very fishy and could call with a very wide range?
      - Assume both Player 1 and Hero both flat call Player 2's shove. We see a dry flop that happens to be good for Aces (feel free to offer your own examples). We decide to check it down, but Player 1 begins betting. Under what circumstances is it worth sticking around in that pot in order to ensure that Player 2 gets eliminated?

      Obviously, our equity is always fantastic with Aces, but what is more likely:

      1- busting out on the bubble because we went to showdown against two other players and had our Aces cracked by the bigger stack, or,

      2 - Player 2 doubling up this hand from Player 1 after we fold, and then Player 3 also picking up new chips the very next hand?
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