Ignoring ICM

    • tomsom87
      Joined: 19.07.2013 Posts: 85
      Was sweating a session last night and this hand came up. Sorry I don't have the HH available but it's fairly straight forward.

      4 handed on final table of a $15 180 man, blinds 2.5k/5k/500ante

      CO (hero) 42,000
      Bu (random playing really tight) 30,000
      Blinds are regs (sb aggro reg, bb tight reg) with roughly 99,000 each

      We have K9o.

      I ran this spot through ICMIZER and it suggested pushing KJo. I then ran the same ICM spot using the new Future Game Simulation (which magically calculates ICM with regards to possible future action), and it said we should shove KTo. I'm also fairly sure that the button will be willing to blind down to 1bb to make the jump.

      My question is do we stick strictly with the ICM calculations here, or do we take this slightly -ICM spot (I think we lose $1.18 by shoving in this situation) and give ourselves a shot at winning?
  • 4 replies
    • Asaban
      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,220
      Hey Tomsom =)

      ICM is a very important concept for tournament poker for sure. However, it doesn't take things like future game or table flow into account. Even the Future Game Simulation can just be an indicator.

      Personally I always adjust ICM slightly. Because of your reads I would most certainly push the hand, even though it is a slight -EV push according to ICM.

    • pauln
      Joined: 15.03.2010 Posts: 191
      The numbers coming from ICMizer are the unexploitable ranges for the situation. I'd guess in this spot if you have a read that an opponent is even slightly tight of nash then this is an good shove.
    • maxtere
      Joined: 23.03.2009 Posts: 1,896
      For me this is easy shove, you cant play strictly how ICM says in 180s. I would not fold here K8o too. Firstly blinds going up soon. Secondly You cant be sure that shotrstack would be out earlier than you, especially when he is nit. Thirdly no one in 180s play strict ICM on FTs so when you play strictly ICM play you can call, shove nothing. So you would be blinded out in most of the times.

      Sorry for my bad english. I hope that you understand my opinion.
    • Yaron123
      Joined: 23.07.2012 Posts: 9
      Hey, also if we give our self 37k in chips k9o will be a fold.
      As u said that the bu is a nit its doesnt say that is not going to call there 66 a8s at qks... we know his not a reg so he can make a massive mistake not considering icm (also some regs do it).
      Ill go with 44+ A4s+ A9o+ KTs+ KJo QTs+ JTs.