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KJo vs 3bet and overbet

    • GingerKid
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,588
      PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): 383.06 BB
      SB: 103.48 BB (VPIP: 19.57, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 46)
      BB: 116.26 BB (VPIP: 20.89, PFR: 14.67, 3Bet Preflop: 2.15, Hands: 229)
      UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 12.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
      MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 10)
      CO: 198.24 BB (VPIP: 18.07, PFR: 12.18, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 243)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:heart: J:club:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 7 BB, fold, Hero calls 5 BB

      Flop: (15 BB, 2 players) 6:club: 7:diamond: J:spade:
      SB bets 14 BB, Hero calls 14 BB

      Turn: (43 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond:
      SB bets 82.48 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 82.48 BB

      River: (207.96 BB, 2 players) 4:club:

      SB shows K:spade: K:club: (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 91%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
      Hero shows K:heart: J:club: (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 9%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
      SB wins 202.96 BB

      I was not sure even on flop he is polarized, so I made decision on flop. Doesnt make sense to call flop and fold turn blank?

      I already saw some similar spews from other fish so I called down.
  • 8 replies
    • Hackett77
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Turn is an easy fold. I may even fold flop sometimes given his betsizing

      You say it doesn't make sense to fold turn on a blank if you call flop but by the same token it doesn't really make sense for him to continue to bluff turn on a blank either.

      You get alot of new information on the turn that you didn't have on the flop = the fact he shoves 86bbs into a 43bb pot.

      Unless guy is a total maniac im folding turn happily here and even then, maniacs tend to make this play with their whiffed A hi on the flop not the turn.

      Even against a range that has lots of turned FDs we still only have about 38%

      Board: 7:diamond: J:spade: 6:club:  3:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     38.18%  38.18%   0.00% { KhJc }
      SB     61.82%  61.82%   0.00% { QQ+, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, QdJd, AdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Qd9d, Td9d, 9d8d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d }
    • Suboptimal88
      Joined: 11.06.2014 Posts: 53
      Whats your calling range preflop? a lot depends how wide you call preflop , i think flop call is fine but turn is problematic , i cant give a specific answer w/o info on your whole range. Generally if KJo is at the bottom of your range then you can fold turn , if its not then you have to call that shove.

      Also i dont think its a good idea to call a 3-bet with KJo , its a borderline hand , of course this depends on how wide you open from lp.
    • lnternet
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      KJ is absolute standard call vs 3bet here Suboptimal, folding is much worse

      Flop call or minraise, both fine. Probably best to give someone who comes out with a pot bet directly some rope, I prefer the call.

      Turn isn't really close. Sure, you have poor odds, but still shouldn't be a problem to gather 40% equity if you include some draws in his range. It's so few better made hands. Most people would never overbet with sets and 2pr, and often not QQ either.

      Hand is well played top to bottom.
    • ZapOut
      Joined: 03.08.2011 Posts: 222
      Internet, can you exlplain why KJ is absolute standard call here ? And why folding is much worse ?
      And you suggest even minraise there.
      KJ :O
      That seems just nonsense to me.
    • GingerKid
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,588
      Originally posted by lnternet
      Flop call or minraise, both fine.
      Also I dont get the min raise. Maybe it is better to explain such a scandalous advice, before we all start following it blindly without understanding why it is good :)

      Board: 6:club: 7:diamond: J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    71.33%  71.19%   0.14% { JJ+, AJs, T9s, 98s, 76s, AJo }
      MP3    28.67%  28.53%   0.14% { KhJc }

      I dont see which other worse hand continue vs raise?

      If we add QT, QJ (if he sees top pair as nuts) then it is still 50%, so not really value raise. But I think QT, QJ are unrealistic to be in his 3bet range, also not realistic in his bet pot size range. He has low 3bet % on low sample, so he is most likely not 3betting super wide.

      Board: 6:club: 7:diamond: J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    48.39%  48.06%   0.33% { JJ+, AJs, QTs+, T9s, 98s, 76s, AJo, QTo+ }
      MP3    51.61%  51.28%   0.33% { KhJc }

      So I think he would need to spew vs our min raise here, to make min raise better than call, also we would need reads for that ?
      Since his range is polarized, and we have pure bluff catcher, I dont see how min raise can be good.
    • lnternet
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      (you meant JTo instead of QTo I believe)

      We are not getting away from KJ here postflop, so you can't really say a flop raise to stack off is bad, because we lose to better hands. We lose to better hands anyway.

      The flop raise is a value raise though anyway.

      It's a flop where he will cbet most of the time.

      Say preflop 3bet 77+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo
      cbet JJ+, 77, AJs-A8s, A6s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, AJo-ATo, KJo+, QJo

      vs minraise he continues about 2/3 of that range

      JJ+, 77, AJs, A6s, KJs+, QJs, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, AJo, KJo, QJo

      KQs / KQo is close for him, KQs barely makes the cut here

      KJ has 48% vs that range, so it's not a value raise, but that's enough equity where it's ok to raise, and you have to consider how the hand plays in a called pot vs a raised pot. Since the hands that fold to the flop raise all have one overcard and backdoor straight draws, the protection argument might make a raise > call.

      Now he does cbet pot size, which makes it a bit weird. I think it increases the chance that he is spazzy, meaning he would jam AK against a minraise quite a bit. I see fish also play weak 1pair and draws like this quite a bit, but not value hands. Fish don't pot size cbet AA or sets, they do it with 99 or K7 or 54s, which makes a minraise a lot more sexy.

      Now I don't think we have to raise, tough to say what's best. Calling is completely fine. Both fine.
    • GingerKid
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,588
      I guess it all depends what we think his range is. You put in his range weak Jx, 99 but I would say he can check decent amount of it, which decreases the equity of KJ vs his defend range.

      Can you please explain in more details, how can raise EV have >= of call EV, when
      equity of our hand vs his range is around 50% and we are IP ? I understand it OOP, we prevent him to check back turn and realize equity with weak draws, overcards.

      If he shoves vs min raise, we have pure bluff catcher, so assuming our equity vs his shove range >= pot odds, then we can call, so it should be +EV because we have FE when raising? So basically with min raise we need 50% FE with 0% bluff hand, and if he defends 66% vs min raise (as you said), then our EV:

      EV_raise = 0.34 * (Pot + bet_size) + 0.66 * (EV_defend)

      EV_defend is when he defends by calling or raising. We can assume EV_defend should be around 0 when he is balanced. So we win 0.34 * 29BB when raising. Is it ok calculation?

      When we call, if his barreling range would be balanced our EV of call should be 0 (actually a bit more than 0 because we block his value hands)?
      This last part is not clear to me, if villian barrels flop turn and river balanced, I understand that on each street our EV = 0 when we call, but is total EV from flop to river 0? If it is, then it looks EV of raise should be significantly bigger vs balanced range?
    • lnternet
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      If he folds 15% equity on the flop to a raise, the raise performed better than a call, most likely. OOP this effect is even bigger, yes, because villain can check back turn and realize a lot more.

      If he shoves we are committed of course. Slightly behind but insta calling.

      EV_raise looks good

      EV_defend I'm not sure what that would be. Since we have ~50% equity setting it to about 0 seems reasonable. I'd say it's even a bit less than 0 because when the rest of the money goes in we are slightly behind.

      EV_call then needs to be compared to that. That's kinda difficult to do.

      If he barrels our EV is only 0 if we hold the exact hand that he makes indifferent, or worse. If we have a stronger hand, our EV against a barrel is above zero. Here, with top pair, we are way above zero EV when he barrels. Folding turn is worse than continuing.
      If he does not barrel, our EV is more than is in the pot, because we have a hand we can value bet with.

      EV_call = (he barrels)((flop pot + flop bet size * 2)*40% - (flop bet size)) + (he doesnt barrel)((flop pot + flop bet size *2)* 120% - (flop bet size))

      something like that

      He does barrel turn is a bit like he continues flop against our raise: we are behind but still +EV because of the pot size. He doesn't barrel turn is a bit like he folds to the flop raise: we win the pot.