AQ vs donk

    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.32, PFR: 14.34, 3Bet Preflop: 1.96, Hands: 256)
      SB: 101.66 BB (VPIP: 28.13, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 33)
      BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.83, PFR: 17.53, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 157)
      UTG: 488.44 BB (VPIP: 28.30, PFR: 22.64, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 54)
      MP: 101.28 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
      Hero (CO): 439.96 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:heart: A:heart:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) K:diamond: 8:heart: 4:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB

      Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) Q:club:
      BB bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

      River: (30.5 BB, 2 players) 2:spade:
      BB bets 22 BB, fold

      BB wins 29.12 BB


      call turn? I block now KQ, but donk on turn is usually strong?
  • 21 replies
    • FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      Silver
      Joined: 30.12.2010 Posts: 3,107
      This line is usually strong, but it doesn't make any sense on this turn (only KQ makes sense I guess) .. especially on this river... Do you think he could take this line with diamonds draw? I mean, I don't see many Kx hands take this line... idk, pretty tough spot, I would also fold I guess otr..
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Originally posted by FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      This line is usually strong, but it doesn't make any sense on this turn (only KQ makes sense I guess) .. especially on this river... Do you think he could take this line with diamonds draw? I mean, I don't see many Kx hands take this line... idk, pretty tough spot, I would also fold I guess otr..
      Even though his stats look regular, his line is fishy because strong hand would likely raise flop or c/r turn, so maybe the most sense makes fd and 56s, 67s, but again he could c/r also those.

      Anyway on that river I dont think he bluffs often enough
    • FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      Silver
      Joined: 30.12.2010 Posts: 3,107
      Yeah, I agree, I would think the same in this hand..
    • booomm
      booomm
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.03.2011 Posts: 677
      only way he could have a legit value hand is if he forgot what action was pre and otf and thought he had iniative, happens to me all the time lolz. excluding that, I'm snap calling, all draws missed and we block KQ so pump fist snap call.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Originally posted by booomm
      only way he could have a legit value hand is if he forgot what action was pre and otf and thought he had iniative, happens to me all the time lolz. excluding that, I'm snap calling, all draws missed and we block KQ so pump fist snap call.
      Hahaha, happens to me also quite often, when I am tired, and then it is a sign for a break :)
    • booomm
      booomm
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.03.2011 Posts: 677
      Originally posted by GingerKid
      Originally posted by booomm
      only way he could have a legit value hand is if he forgot what action was pre and otf and thought he had iniative, happens to me all the time lolz. excluding that, I'm snap calling, all draws missed and we block KQ so pump fist snap call.
      Hahaha, happens to me also quite often, when I am tired, and then it is a sign for a break :)
      haha yeah exactly, when I see the hand history after loosing the hand and going 'wtf how did he call that', I go on insta life tilt and quit immediatly :f_biggrin:
    • ETBrooD
      ETBrooD
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2009 Posts: 2,421
      I'd call for reasons. Kinda agree with booomm but not entirely. Imo the blocker isn't reason enough.
      If you think villain might be leaving soon anyway, fold. If you think he'll stay, call.
    • paulmoras
      paulmoras
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2014 Posts: 41
      times to times i see this line taken by fd's but since u have no significant stats on him and u think him as a fish u should consider strongly that he could easily defend with a hand like Q8s f.e. it would make sense...despite that if u see him around i would call cause u have the bluff <<catcher>> and u could really justify the means of this strange line he took (that is if u see him regurarly..i consider it +ev)


      sry for my english :P
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      This line is often strong, sizing indicated strength too.

      That said, If im playing him regularly and he often takes weird lines im calling down even if im 100% sure im beat as the note to me will be worth more than than the buy in over the long run.
    • AnaJorge
      AnaJorge
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.05.2014 Posts: 26
      When i play broadways/Pocket pairs OOP and hit something on the flop vs a TAG player and they Cbet the flop, i usually call down and donk bet the river for about 1/2 pot.

      From my point of view after this they got only 2 options, either raise or fold (calling just isnt an option from my point of view since u get into the river without knowing where you at).

      If they raise u on the turn, u get more value off your sets and just fold your TPGK, if they fold u make money off your broadways aswell.

      On the rare case of a call like in the example, i would just value bet the river, to balance range on the set/broadway and rely on fold equity for +EV !
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Originally posted by Hackett77
      This line is often strong, sizing indicated strength too.

      That said, If im playing him regularly and he often takes weird lines im calling down even if im 100% sure im beat as the note to me will be worth more than than the buy in over the long run.
      I think such a note is worthless. You assume that if you see him donking value that he will always do it or if bluffs he always bluffs?
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      it gives me a lot of information. This is an unusual non central spot and when people do things non centrally there is a high probability he will do the same like again.

      It also gives me an insight into his mindset regarding flop textures, hand strength, betszing his perception of ranges, how he views me etc. All things that are worth more than a buy in to me.

      Your all here discussing the hand and wondering what he had. For the sake of just 1 buy in we answer that question and know how to adjust in the future.

      However I play against pretty much the same players every day with a huge part of my profit coming from game flow situations (I actually win the same amount NSD as I do SD) so maybe its worth more to me than if your playing in a huge player pool or if your mass multi tabling.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Lets say he shows you the 2 pair. What is your conclusion about that?

      If he is fish, you will most likely not see him playing again, and fish play random so I wouldnt draw conclusions based on one hand
      If he is a reg, regs have somehow balanced ranges in NL50, not really playing randomly. So if you see him donk 2 pair, he is probably also donking busted draws, and you dont know anything about his bluff frequency. he might change the strategy next day (I change it often), he might be on tilt with this hand, or lost in action, or he maybe does it on very specific board and number of players in pot and positions.
      So what I wanted to say, it is all still assumptions, which I dont see how it can improve EV.
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      If he was a fish it's the easiest fold in the world this is a turned two pair 100% of the time.

      As for regs, regs arent balanced at Nl50, nor should they be. You may feel you change your strategy all the time but if you do it's not consciously and it won't be as much you believe you do. Humans are creatures of habit and patterns and we find it had to randomize. We may feel we are but it's just a cognitive bias. This is something we need to become of aware of in ourselves.

      The path to crushing these games first lies with knowing yourself, including your own cognitive failings and biases, then we can start to get inside the mind of our opponents.

      As far If he is on tilt etc. I would know all that and factor in these things in my decision process. It's my job to be aware of and keep tabs of the mental state of my oppponents.

      It's one reason I feel these hand discussions dont really achieve much therefore don't usually participate in them. Nobody ever includes the stuff that really matters, game flow, dynamics, our opponents state of mind in general and right at that moment, how he perceives our mental state at that moment.

      You may feel the note in a non central spot is worthless but it's a non central spot for a reason, it's unusual and these instances tell us a lot . Fr example His sizings tell us a lot about how he perceives us.

      If he donks pot turn and river with top two on a board in a spot that will often only get called by sets due to his sidings it tells us he see us as stations, this lets us realise we shouldn't be bluff catching him too much. It could also tell us that he doesn't think too much about calling ranges more his hand strength.

      In this hand there is also a huge variation in his turn and river sizings, that again is something players often do subconsciously and will often be a pattern they are not awa per of in themselves, working out what this means is highly valuable.

      The inability to think about calling ranges is huge leak I see in most regs under Nl100 because as soon as they make a strong hand they lose the ability to think about what range actually calls different bet sizes. They size according to their hand strength and lose a lot of value which they could of gained had they thought about range manipulation a little more, the effect different sizes has on their opponents calling range.

      I am happy to Lose a buy in a spot like this because for this note is worth the cost. Especially with regard to hs sizings and timings. Probably it won't be worth it for your average reg at nl50, but it should be.

      The fact that this hand has generated so much discussion should tell us that the note and getting to showdown is valuable here.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Hi Hackett,

      Even though we dont agree, I like the discoussion, and I think it is the point of discoussion not to agree always and to hear other opinions.


      If he was a fish it's the easiest fold in the world this is a turned two pair 100% of the time.
      Again I think it is assumption. My experience in party poker is that fish donk big river all day long with busted draws. He can have in that case many busted draws, even small pairs which didnt improve are also busted draws.



      As for regs, regs arent balanced at Nl50, nor should they be.
      I didnt say they are playing totally balanced, but they are also not totally unbalanced, nor they play randomly. Rarely I see a reg who is just e.g. raising nuts, or just donking nuts and similar, most of them have bluff range and value, it is just the question if they are value havy or bluff heavy which I cant conlcude from one hand.


      You may feel you change your strategy all the time but if you do it's not consciously and it won't be as much you believe you do. Humans are creatures of habit and patterns and we find it had to randomize. We may feel we are but it's just a cognitive bias. This is something we need to become of aware of in ourselves.
      I am surely not playing completely randomly, and not changing strategy randomly. For example, I used to overbet all the time as bluff river vs cappt range, people were folding non stop, and after some time they realized I am bluffing and started calling. So probably some of them made a note that i bluff overbet seeing one hand, but then I start value ovebettting and he is using false assumption and note is missleading him.
      One example of using wrong note is here:
      AK Axx ugly overbet

      Agree humans are far away from random, and have patterns, but I wanted to say, players are not changing game style purely random, but still they change it and your notes and assumptions can misslead you.
      Maybe you didnt know, computers are also not random, as well as dealt cards from casino, if you list a huge list of random samples you can discover a pattern.


      The path to crushing these games first lies with knowing yourself, including your own cognitive failings and biases, then we can start to get inside the mind of our opponents.
      As far If he is on tilt etc. I would know all that and factor in these things in my decision process. It's my job to be aware of and keep tabs of the mental state of my oppponents.
      Maybe you have special skills to get into mindset of opponent, but I find it hard for me, especially in fast forward (zoom etc) where opponents change all the time.
      Can you please explain how you do it? How do you get into mindset of opponent and use it for your advantage?


      You may feel the note in a non central spot is worthless but it's a non central spot for a reason, it's unusual and these instances tell us a lot . Fr example His sizings tell us a lot about how he perceives us.
      Agree, I didnt say all notes are worthless, but seeing one hand and concluding about players frequencies and ranges I think is worthless.



      In this hand there is also a huge variation in his turn and river sizings, that again is something players often do subconsciously and will often be a pattern they are not awa per of in themselves, working out what this means is highly valuable.
      Sure, people have bet size tell, and I very often analyse offline my opponents by filtering their hands.


      The fact that this hand has generated so much discussion should tell us that the note and getting to showdown is valuable here.
      I dont see the logic behind this statement, for me these two facts are totally independent.




      It's one reason I feel these hand discussions dont really achieve much therefore don't usually participate in them. Nobody ever includes the stuff that really matters, game flow, dynamics, our opponents state of mind in general and right at that moment, how he perceives our mental state at that moment.

      I learned a lot in hand discussions. I couldnt beat nl10, and when I started posting hands every day in forum I started beating very fast NL50.
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Yes it is a good discussion and of course we don't need to agree. Its always good to learn how other players think. That is our main goal at the end of the day.

      I should get tracked again so I can do these fancy forum posts but to be honest I've never worked out how to do it anyway so Ill just reply as best I can:

      About the fish assumption. Yes it's an assumption but its one based on close to 4 million hands of experience. At the end of the day most of our decisions are more or less assumptions, based on the our experience, the limited data (HUD) we have available, gameflow/interplayer dynamics and the accuracy of our stereotyping of our opponent.

      The same as the assumption that when a fish min raises a paired flop I can min3b my entire (no hand) range and get a fold. Yes its an assumption , I don't know 100% he is going to fold but based on a great deal of experience and stereotyping this has proven to be super profitably and im fairly confident the fold is coming. Likewise when a fish min raises a dry a turn I can safely assume he has two pair or better. All we are doing is making assumptions at the end of the day really.

      Fish love to donk river with busted draws yes but that isnt what happened in this hand nor is it the interesting part. The salient factor here is that he cc flop then lead turn bombed river. The turn is the key factor here. Fish usually cc/cc/bet their busted draws. Besides I think its safe to assume (albeit tiny sample) that a 18/17/7 isn't likely to shape up to be a fish.

      With regards to getting into the mindset our opponents the key is to first understand you own mind and pay attention, pay attention, pay pay attention.

      I imagine its much harder to do playing a format like zoom and where player pools are large and changing often but when you play against the same players 8 hours a day, 5 days a week it becomes easier (and more important).

      Again this may be redundant in zoom but another thing is to try to be less reliant on a HUD. Stats are great and everything but really they should be used to provide extra information, not a solution to every decision. Even if you have a huge sample on a player his stats will only tell you his general tendencies but too often people take this as gospel and do not notice the subtle variations in a opponents play on any given day or session, variations that are driven by emotions.

      One of the most important things ive learnt in the 3 years I've played professionally is that this game isn't really about strategy or math (although they are both important). It's about human emotion. So the lower down you get or the weaker the player you face the less emotional control they will generally have which means greater deviations from their general strategy (therefore their HUD stats).

      Another thing I've learnt is that poker has many parallels to life so talking to your opponents helps alot too. It doesn't even have to be about poker either. Once you get an idea of a players attitude to life in general you can get an insight into his mindset as a poker player. I talk to my opponents all the time (and Im hated for it but im not at these games for enjoyment, its a means to an end so I use whatever weapons I have at my disposal to meet my goals) but it gives me a great deal of information into how people think

      To develop these skills you have to understand the human mind and its cognitive failings. I'd recommend studying psychology. MIT have recently made all of their courses accessible for free (but without the qualification). Definitely worth the time:

      http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/brain-and-cognitive-sciences/9-00sc-introduction-to-psychology-fall-2011/

      The point about the note is for me its worth it as I will be playing the same guys day in day out so dynamic and understanding the psychology of my opponents becomes extra important. Im sure it won't be as valuable for someone playing zoom or in a large player pool.

      I'd also recommend the book "how to be a poker player - The Philosophy of Poker" by Hasseb Qureshi. It deal mostly with the psychology of poker and the human mind and the part about 'non central' spots is golden.

      I didn't mean to imply discussing hands are pointless. We can all learn a great deal using these forums and other mediums to talk poker. My point was I feel its pointless to try to gain a definite answer on how to play X hand in a hand history discussion because hardly ever does anyone actually include the information we need to do so.
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Lets give villain a tight rough range of

      88,44,KQ,87s,AQd,AJ,QJd,ATd,QTd,JTd,J9d,89d

      He has a set 24% of the time
      Two pair 24%
      Flush draw 35%
      2nd mid pair 24%
      Busted draws 40%

      AQ has 50% equity vs this range.

      But lets look at his value range vs our perceived range.

      Our perceived (v tight range) range by the river is say: AQ,KK,QQ,KQ,A8s,88,44 (forget all our busted draws for now)

      We have a set 28%
      Top two 30%
      Overpair 14%
      Top pair 28%

      for a total of 43 combos (which is a 64/35 favorite range vs range).

      But what about our calling range vs his river bet sizing. Many regs will fold AA and AK here and lets say fold K8s and Q8s 1/2 the time. that reduces our calling range to 25 combos, about 40ish%

      So if he turns over KQ here it tells me for example

      a) he views me as a calling station as he expects me to call with hands like AA and AK which make up a large part of my range. I can adjust by bluff catching less
      or
      b) His river bet sizing also tells me he doesn't think too much about his opponents calling range, just his hand strength as if he did he would bet size better to keep in the AK, AA hands that it looks like I have (AA,AK,AQ ar e the same hand vs his range).
      c) Gives me a read on his variations in bet sizing (plus timing)

      If he turns over a busted draw it tells me

      a) Again he isn't thinking about my range, just his hand strength. He is bluffing in a spot where my range is strong.
      b) Again great read on a non central play and betsize/timing tell.
      c) that I can bluff catch him more frequently (unless of course I turn over 1 pair then he should adjust by bluffing less which means I should in turn adjust by calling less - but given (a) he probably won't adjust so I should still bluff catch frequently.

      Not to mention in non central spots you are also more likely to see random hands than you would in a common situation.

      All this equates to profit to me in the long run. I can adjust and play much better vs him in the future. Or I can fold and discuss the hand on the forums and be none the wiser next time he does something strange and possibly continue to make mistakes vs him.

      but again, this is kinda pointless if you aren't facing the same player day in day out.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Hey,

      I agree about last 2 comments :)

      I actually thought he c/c flop c/c turn and donk river. But his line looks strong, and you are right that it would be the great read on him. However, I do play in fast forward on party poker, so I will probably not see him that often. Also, If i would have enough hands on him, instead of burning money by calling river, I could just filter his hands from pokertracker and find spots where he donks turn and river, and then see plenty of situations not just one.+
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Originally posted by GingerKid
      Hey,

      I agree about last 2 comments :)

      I actually thought he c/c flop c/c turn and donk river. But his line looks strong, and you are right that it would be the great read on him. However, I do play in fast forward on party poker, so I will probably not see him that often. Also, If i would have enough hands on him, instead of burning money by calling river, I could just filter his hands from pokertracker and find spots where he donks turn and river, and then see plenty of situations not just one.+
      Yeah I think thats the key point. If you're playing a fast poker format or in a large pool its not going to be worth it.

      For me where I'm likely to play thousands of hands vs him I want this read now, 150 hands into our dynamic and not still be guessing after like 2k hands.
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