[NL2-NL10] NL50 - JJ on the blinds - folded in the face of UTG raising

    • abundance211
      abundance211
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 151
      Hand #1:
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php] Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      BB ($50)
      UTG ($62.29)
      UTG+1 ($77.64)
      MP1 ($51.60)
      MP2 ($23.80)
      MP3 ($14.27)
      CO ($64.01)
      Button ($57.14)
      Hero (SB) ($13.75)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J:heart: , J:spade:
      UTG raises $2.50, 8 folds

      Total pot: $1.25 | Rake: $0

      UTG stats:
      VPIP 10.22
      PFR 8.22
      633 hands sample

      Hand #2:
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - [url=http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php] Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      UTG+1 ($98.34)
      MP1 ($11.25)
      MP2 ($50.25)
      CO ($9.95)
      Button ($28.34)
      SB ($9.50)
      Hero (BB) ($10.55)
      UTG ($161.43)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J:club: , J:heart:
      UTG raises $2.50, 7 folds

      Total pot: $1.25 | Rake: $0

      UTG stats:
      VPIP 14.43
      PFR 13.4
      97 hands sample

      Was it correct move to fold JJ from the blinds when UTG raised?
  • 13 replies
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Not with those PFR... they could be on many hands weaker than yours.
      I think you could shove it.
    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      You have decent sample sizes, what are the EV calculations?
    • kukkiwonBG
      kukkiwonBG
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      In the first hand:
      You have an easy fold here imo
      vs. even 99+,AQs+,AKo you are behind

      In the second hand:
      You don't have any stats with only 100 hands. But if we know that this stats is right (bigger sample size) you have very easy shove.
      vs. around 6% range (55+,AQs+,AKo) you are 6:4
      vs 5% (66+,AKs,AKo) you have 57% equity

      Maybe around more than 9-10 PFR is a good shove here. But is a villain dependent.

      Best regards,
      kukkiwon_BG
    • IngolPoker
      IngolPoker
      Black
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,467
      i instashove both hands if i dont have exact stats on the exact (!) position telling me otherwise
    • kukkiwonBG
      kukkiwonBG
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      Ingol you broke my heart
      Can you give me the range of the villain it the first hand that with his PFR 8 we have more than 50% equity

      Thanks for the help
    • kukkiwonBG
      kukkiwonBG
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      We even need 52,2 with the rake
      Or vs. what hands OR f/ UTG we have fold equity
    • IngolPoker
      IngolPoker
      Black
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,467
      against AK, 77+ (4,8%) we have 54%

      for example :)
    • kukkiwonBG
      kukkiwonBG
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      So you are saying that he plays 60% of his range from UTG
    • IngolPoker
      IngolPoker
      Black
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,467
      I say i dont know it, and therefore i stick to the standard play.

      Imo you cant just fold because you are guessing he is tight...use elephant or HM and tell me his position stats and we can talk about safer assumptions.

      Also he might always limp monsters and therefore they are not in his raising range....we simply dont know.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Unknown Opponent in 2nd hand = Basic SSS play = Shove.

      I fold the first hand though although I like to know more about Villains :)
    • abundance211
      abundance211
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 151
      Originally posted by IngolPoker
      i instashove both hands if i dont have exact stats on the exact (!) position telling me otherwise
      1st hand
      Villain stats (on total of 633 hands)
      UTG - 30 hands 0.00/0.00
      UTG+1 - 50 hands 8.00/6.00

      2nd hand
      there are not enough sample hands at these positions to conclude anything, still his stats at UTG and UTG+1 were 0.00/0.00

      I had few hard sessions the last week, so I think I was playing more cautious/hesitatingly

      Thank you all for your contribution and opinions
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by kukkiwonBG

      Can you give me the range of the villain it the first hand that with his PFR 8 we have more than 50% equity

      Pokerstove is your friend.

      OP: Like INgol says, you need to know position stats. A comparison between PFR and Attempt to steal can be useful if you don't have HM.
    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by abundance211

      I had few hard sessions the last week, so I think I was playing more cautious/hesitatingly
      This is an error, akin to tilt, read the articles. If you took bad beats with JJ, so what? When the chum turns over 58o I will take the race all day every day. If you raised/called according to strategy and keep facing cold-deck (QQ+ behind) so what? Notice it works in your favor too? If you played your JJ bad, like all-in after 2 raises, or limping IP then thats just bad play, and you can change that. But you can't change how the cards fall, so if your JJ are ahead preflop then raise and re-raise. Dont get gunshy cause a few chum slapped you in the face :D