Postflop math

    • ZeDawning
      ZeDawning
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.02.2011 Posts: 204
      Hey,

      Lets say we are HU and I raise to 50. Villian calls.
      Pot is 100.

      x/x, x/x, I bet River 50.

      I need to know how much bluffs I need to have in this, assuming he calls 100%, to breakeven.

      Do I consider the money invested pre?
      Which means I need to have 50% Value, 50% Bluff
      Win once -> I win 50 post + 50 pre = 100
      Lose once -> Lose 50 post + 50 pre = -100

      Do I not consider the money invested pre? (Dead money?)
      Which means I need to have 25% Value, 75% Bluff
      Win once -> I win 50+100pot = 150
      Lose thrice -> I lose 50*3 = -150

      I'm assuming the answer would be the second one. Could you explain why please?
      I mean, in the second one, I will be down 200 overall after 4 times.

      2 years of playing poker and now I ask this :facepalm:
  • 2 replies
    • JCSeerup
      JCSeerup
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 1,039
      I'm certainly not a big GTO shark, but I'm pretty sure you need a 3:1 bluff:value ratio as that is the odds villian is getting on a call.

      Don't know if that answered the question?
    • ZeDawning
      ZeDawning
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.02.2011 Posts: 204
      I get what you are saying.

      But effectively, aren't we going to be down having 3:1 bluff:value on R and not breakeven considering the preflop money we've invested.

      We are treating it as dead money. Why?