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[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH: flopped set on a wet board

    • mrjorisa
      Joined: 30.03.2008 Posts: 200
      Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players - Hand History Converter

      BB: $6.75
      UTG: $40.70
      MP: $29.30
      CO: $26.65
      BTN: $23.50
      Hero (SB): $25

      Pre-Flop: 9:heart: 9:club: dealt to Hero (SB)
      UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, CO calls $0.25, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BB folds, UTG calls $1, CO folds

      Flop: ($3) 9:diamond: Q:heart: T:heart: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $2, UTG raises to $4, Hero raises to $9.75, UTG raises to $39.45 and is All-In, Hero?
  • 3 replies
    • kukkiwonBG
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      I like your isolation raise preflop.
      Raise on the flop a little bit more. If you had AA you will protect vs. FD, SD.
      So nearly pot size I thing is better.

      He minRR and this is more of a draw or a not so strong hand (bottom two pair or something like that)
      as of a big monster like made strait or bigger set.

      I thing you show weakness with your 3bet on the flop (two small imo) so is an easy call for me without stats, reads.

      Even if he has a made straight witn something like KJ (very weak of him) you still have some ouds. You need 29.1% BE (with rake)

      vs. KJ we have 39.3
      vs KJ :heart: we have 33.9%
      vs. AhKh we have over 66%
      and vs. bigger set we are dead.

      and vs. all the big hands we have 48%

      And imo there is a lot more hands that he is dead and he will play like that.

      So call is optimal

      Best regards,
    • TheBrood
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      The only hands that beat you are J8, KJ, TT, QQ. We can rule out QQ and prob TT as he would have raised pf. That leaves J8 and KJ. Even if he has this, you still have outs to FH.
      You beat any SD, FD, 2pair. If he's passive watch out since he will prob raise a monster here. (2pair, set, straight or combo)
      Unless you have a good read I'd call him.
      You even have a heart which helps against FD.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      There are so many two pair+ combo draws, that you can´t fold to his shove, after you 3-bet pf.
      It is an easy call.