Outs & Odds

    • mytylynRNMD
      mytylynRNMD
      Basic
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 16
      Hello , don't know if is the right section....
      i'm really having a problem to understand the concept of Odd's

      after learning to calculate my out's , transforming them in odds.....is becoming a problem :f_frown: :f_frown: :f_frown:
      the math is very simple , but too many charts and way too big the gap between them

      out's x2 /x4 is the simplest way but not very exact , original formula way too complicated

      How do you transform your OUT's in ODDS to can compare them with pot/bet odds?

      Ok , let's say i found a way to calculate my odd's or a chart "close to the truth"

      My problem is what odds you calculate on flop...
      because you can calculate odds for turn and odds for turn and river

      i know that on turn odds will change ( bet , other outs...) but also not all hands go with bet on every street :f_confused:

      still have to learn about implied odds, fold odds , equity....(any help :f_love: )
  • 10 replies
    • Harrier88
      Harrier88
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 1,971
      First of all, I assume you're already familiar with the article on Odds & Outs and its accompanying video and quiz? If not, do check it out.

      Multiplying your outs by 2 or 4 should be accurate enough as a rule of thumb to get the probability of hitting your outs as a percentage. If you want to get it as odds that can be compared to the pot odds, I think the best way is to just learn the odds for the most common draws by heart:

      Overcards (6 outs): 7:1
      OESD (8 outs): 5:1
      Flushdraw (9 outs): 4:1
      Flushdraw + gutshot (12 outs): 3:1
      Flush draw + pair (14 outs): 2.5:1
      Flush draw + OESD (15 outs - a monster draw): 2:1

      Lesser draws like gutshots (11:1 odds) are rarely worth chasing, so I think you can ignore them for now.

      Originally posted by mytylynRNMD
      My problem is what odds you calculate on flop...
      because you can calculate odds for turn and odds for turn and river
      Always calculate your odds for the next street (flop to turn or turn to river), unless you're faced with an all-in. If that's the case, the odds from flop to river are:

      Overcards (6 outs): 3:1
      OESD/Flush draw (8/9 outs): 2:1
      Flush draw + gutshot or better (>12 outs): 1:1 - go for it!

      Originally posted by mytylynRNMD
      i know that on turn odds will change ( bet , other outs...) but also not all hands go with bet on every street :f_confused:
      Are you talking about pot odds? The odds themselves do not change at all depending on any bets.

      Originally posted by mytylynRNMD
      still have to learn about implied odds, fold odds , equity....(any help :f_love: )
      You can find the related articles here:
      Implied Odds
      Introduction to Ranges
      Combos & Card Removal
      Introduction to Equity
      Equity: Final Calls

      If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask.

      EDIT: Oh, and by the way, do I assume correctly that you're playing cash games?
      If you aren't, you can't really follow the rules about pot odds to the letter. Draws are played differently in tournaments.
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Thanks a bunch Harrier, great post :)
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      For holdem, x2 gives false equity for next street. Add +2 to that and its more accurate. Like with 9 outs it's x2 (=18) and +2 (18+2=20) which is right on the spot.

      I said for holdem, as most of the situations are with less than 10 outs. If there are over 10 outs you can use +3 instead.
    • mytylynRNMD
      mytylynRNMD
      Basic
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 16
      Exactly Kyyberi...
      there is a slight difference between methods , but in some points you''ll hind out that you have to fold after some charts or call after others...

      I mean how you do it more quickly and more recise

      and that Kyyberi is good too but i found out that is more exact and quite easy :

      9 outs x4 = 36 minus 9 outs =27 and minus an 8 (from somewhere) = 19

      so 9x4 =36 - 17 (9+8)=19

      and in most charts with 2 decimals =) for 9 outs you have from 19.15 to 19.60

      i know that seems maybe too much , but in some hands pure from outs/odds math don't know what to do
    • RakeVictim
      RakeVictim
      Basic
      Joined: 27.03.2014 Posts: 199
      If you have 9 or more outs dont care about the odds, just ship in :D

      4 outs lets say otf to hit till river= 4x4=16%
      4 outs ott to hit river- 4x2= 8%

      btw registered in 2010 and four years later dont know how to calculate odds, you're doing it wrong mate
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      If you use that you don't have to minus the outs, just multiply it by x3 and minus 8. I still think that x2+2 is easier.

      For 9 outs it gives 20%. The exact number is 9/47 (19,15) or 9/46 (19,56) if we don't know what our opponent has. If we can be sure that he isn't blocking our outs, the equity goes up a little. On the flop if we know that neither of his cards block our outs, the equity is exactly 20%.

      I don't know about charts, but the chart can't tell you when you have to fold or call. It can tell you the estimated or exact equity, and you have to base your decisions to that. Charts don't know about metagame or implied odds.
    • mytylynRNMD
      mytylynRNMD
      Basic
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 16
      Thank you for reply Harrier88

      read them all outs/odds still have to learn them better and start on some of your links, which is the next step after i finish with out/odds
      download it an app to exercise with numbers , counting outs....

      So is simple, odds for each street, when all in on flop turn & river. clear that out.

      actually now i'm playing Fifty50 but

      I was trying to speak in general , just Basics outs/odds

      cos you have implied odds, fold/bluff equity, combos....
      i'll get to them ....soon :s_cool:
    • mytylynRNMD
      mytylynRNMD
      Basic
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 16
      yee i know RakeVictim cos now i'm doing it like that some time even with more then 10 outs

      but in a slowly deep tournament, 3-4 handed , heavy board ........
      (maybe to extreme but out/odds)

      since 2010 i've learn all the bad ways to play , finish them off and start to learn the ...good way :f_p:
    • mytylynRNMD
      mytylynRNMD
      Basic
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 16
      "If you use that you don't have to minus the outs, just multiply it by x3 and minus 8. "

      didn't see that Kyyberi :evil:

      and yes seems is easier x2+2 and the gap :s_thumbsup:
    • Harrier88
      Harrier88
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 1,971
      Originally posted by mytylynRNMD
      and in most charts with 2 decimals =) for 9 outs you have from 19.15 to 19.60

      i know that seems maybe too much , but in some hands pure from outs/odds math don't know what to do
      Unless you're writing a theoretical essay about poker, I wouldn't worry too much about that. In an actual game, a deviation of a few decimal points, or even percents for that matter, rarely makes a big difference. It is typically enough to get a rough estimate to decide whether a call is profitable or not. You don't have time for complex calculations anyway when you're multitabling.

      Also, keep in mind that the odds only give you the probability of hitting your out, and not necessarily your chance of actually winning the hand. To calculate that, you'd have to put your opponent on a range first, which is already a bit of a gray area, and it also leads to concepts like discounted outs, dead cards and redraws, making a painstakingly accurate calculation of your odds superfluous.

      Originally posted by mytylynRNMD
      actually now i'm playing Fifty50 but

      I was trying to speak in general , just Basics outs/odds
      It's true, knowledge about basic concepts like odds and outs can never hurt, even if they're played differently in your format. In some other formats like MTTs, knowledge of cash games can actually be quite helpful.

      Just keep in mind that draws are played differently in tournaments. A chip won is worth less than a chip lost.
      I'm also not sure if the concept of implied odds is that relevant to Fifty50's or other SNGs...