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sb vs bb cev math

    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      Poker Stars, $7.34 Buy-in (300/600 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): 8,897 (14.8 bb)
      BB: 9,076 (15.1 bb)
      UTG+2: 6,924 (11.5 bb)
      MP1: 4,880 (8.1 bb)
      MP2: 2,322 (3.9 bb)
      MP3: 31,314 (52.2 bb)
      CO: 2,804 (4.7 bb)
      BTN: 3,206 (5.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K 4
      6 folds, Hero raises to 8,847 and is all-in, BB calls 8,247

      Flop: (18,094) 8 J A (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      Turn: (18,094) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: (18,094) A (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      18,094 pot
      Final Board: 8 J A J A
      Hero showed K 4 and won 18,094 (9,197 net)
      BB showed Q T and lost (-8,897 net)


      Hello everyone i whould like to know how can we calculate if its cev+ to shove from sb vs bb

      we figure out vilian will call with a 25% range

      how we can calculate if this is +cev ?
  • 1 reply
    • w4terman
      w4terman
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 757
      i have done a similar post about this some time ago

      and i got this reply

      Originally posted by YohanN7
      (Lol, managed to squeeze in 234 errors in my first two edits.)

      ES_shove = ES_BB_calls*probability_BB_calls + ES_BB_folds*probability_BB_folds.

      ES_BB_calls = pot_size_bb_calls*equity_bb_calls = (1sb + 1bb + 2*effective_stack)*equity_bb_calls

      ES_BB_folds = pot_size_bb_folds = (1sb + 1bb + 1*effective_stack)

      ES_fold = effective_stack

      You take it from here. ES_* stands for "Expected Stack in case *".
      Our equity when vilian calls is 33,89% (Kh4d vs 25% range)

      So here we go!
      ES_BB_calls = 600 + 300 + (8x50ante) + (2x 8847) * 33,89% = 18994*33,89%= 6437,06

      ES_BB_folds=600 + 300 + (8x50ante) +8847 = 10147

      ES_fold = 8847

      So…

      ES_shove = 6437,06*25% + 10147*75% = 9219,515

      So if we shove we are winning 9219,515-8847= 372,515 chips!

      Is the calculation and the math type correct ?