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Question about FE and equity

    • Tosh5457
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Ok lets say I got 3 :spade: 2 :spade: .

      It's an heads-up pot on the flop.

      Pot: $0.25
      Flop: 9 :spade: T :spade: 7 :club:

      I bet $0.25, so I only need to take the pot 1 in 2 times to be EV=0 (lets say there is no rake).

      But considering I got a FD(9 outs, I got no backdoors), how many times do I need to take the pot down, assuming the flush will make me win the pot. That's my question, it would be extremely useful to know, does anybody know the math? Thanks :)
  • 3 replies
    • EagleStar88
      Joined: 06.10.2008 Posts: 7,359
      Sorry Tosh, no idea, but would be interested myself in the response from one of the coaches or established players though.

      I think you might have to discount some of the outs or be very cautious though as someone could have a higher flush draw, so not guaranteed to win even if hit. Also if 2x more suited hit then more than likely behind someone with a higher single flush card.

    • Nunki
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Tosh5457

      I bet $0.25, so I only need to take the pot 1 in 2 times to be EV=0 (lets say there is no rake)...

      ..assuming you never win if called.

      Using your example and assuming that your flop bet puts you AI with villain covering.

      EV{semi-bluff}= FE*pot +(1-FE)*[pot_equity*potsize_when_called - bet_size]

      =FE*0.25 +(1-FE)*[36%*0.75 - 0.25]

      where FE = Probability of you taking the pot straight down and your pot-equity is assumed to be 36%

      In real life though you have implied/reverse implied odds to worry about besides villain's hand-range and general playing style.
    • TribunCaesar
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      What Nunki wrote looks good. Actually I am not a big fan of those calculations, because it's difficult to get to a real result. There are factors like domination by a higher flush draw, loosing against a full house etc. But obviously you need less fe when you have a draw.