$EV vs Luck adjusted winnings

  • 8 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 9,745
      Originally posted by Vip3rNZ
      Am I running good or bad?
      Yes.

      The problem is that 20 SnGs is too small a sample to make any determination of quality of play. Or luck.

      If you're running BELOW where luck says you should be, then I suspect you have not been getting your fair share of the breaks. I use HM2, and if has a "luck adjusted winnings" graph I don't know of it -- but I don't play SnGs, and it may be specific to that format.

      An EV of $25 means little unless we also know what the actual was.

      If it was $50, then you've been doing pretty good.
      If it was -10, then you've been coming across a lot of luckboxes.

      Cheers,
      --VS
    • r1sk4v3rs10n
      r1sk4v3rs10n
      Silver
      Joined: 25.02.2011 Posts: 35
      I ill say its more important to review that SnGs with HRC, what do you care if you push AQ from the CO with 10bb and get called with AK, or push trash for 10bb from SB and get called and raped, the important thing is you are doing the rights moves.
    • Vip3rNZ
      Vip3rNZ
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2011 Posts: 340
      Thanks for your replies!

      First off what is HRC?

      Yeah luck adjusted winnings is specific to SnG buyin/$ graphs, when you go to the tourney reports tab in hm2 and look at the "Tournament winnings" graph, it has an option "show luck adjusted winnings" instead of in cash game graph or chip graph it shows all in EV.


      I've now played 37 SnGs ( 6max hyper turbo ) and I have $52.92 Winnings -$2.58 net winnings and $EV $47.60

      I'm not sure if this $EV amount is relevant to my net winnings or just my winnings, if it is the latter then according to this I'm running $5.32 above ev yet still losing money, indicating that I'm playing bad but still getting lucky?


      According to the "Luck Adjusted Winnings" graph my green line is sitting at about -$2.6 while my red line ( The Luck Adjusted Winnings Line ) is sitting at about -$8.

      I assume that means that I'm playing bad and running well, yet not running well enough to be in the profit with my bad play? I've been following the Pokerstrategy push fold charts for SnGs when below 13bb and the steal/resteal charts from the mid and early game charts when above 13bb ( taking into consideration the biggest stack behind me as the stack to go by if any of them have more chips then I do.

      Cant seem to find any articles to read specific to hyper turbos, maybe these graphs are more for regular speed or just normal turbos ( not hypers ) ?

      I just want to know if I can rely on these charts to beat the lowest limit? also have been playing without a hud because as a cash game player I feel my hud will hinder more then help due to having ALOT less hands on people, and people's strategy's changing with the stacks, which are changing very fast in hypers.
    • ipeaceonu
      ipeaceonu
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2007 Posts: 232
      Don't worry about EV it's all a myth ;)



      50k games is still not really a decent sample


      Use a hud, it's a must even for small amounts of hand samples. Gl and welcome to hypers hell :)
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,662
      Originally posted by Vip3rNZ
      Am I running good or bad?
      Yes
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 9,745
      Originally posted by Vip3rNZ
      First off what is HRC?
      Holdem Resources Calculator.
      That particular product is not free, however http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web-calculators/nashicm.html [b]IS[/B] free, and has some benefit as well.

      Best of luck,
      --VS
    • Vip3rNZ
      Vip3rNZ
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2011 Posts: 340
      Originally posted by LemOn36
      Originally posted by Vip3rNZ
      Am I running good or bad?
      Yes
      Your the second person to give that answer lol I don't believe am I running good or bad is a yes or no question, its more of a your running bad or your running good kinda question :o

      Thanks Vorpal, will check it out
    • ipeaceonu
      ipeaceonu
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2007 Posts: 232
      Originally posted by Vip3rNZ
      after 20 sngs



      Am I running good or bad?
      Your not even running with 20 games your just about crawling.