Tough river spot in live cash game

    • CreamyGoodness
      CreamyGoodness
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2010 Posts: 229
      Hey guys

      This normally wouldn't be worthy of a post but the opponent in the hand was a good, experienced regular who makes a decent living from this game, despite it being a live €1/2 late night cash game. He is my only consistant threat and any help I get on beating him would be great. The game is full of fish, as the casino is in between a few big nightclubs. On a given night there is only ever one or two poker players besides me. The Villain in this hand is a good reg.

      Obviously I have no stats on the Villain, but I have played about 25hrs with him over the past few weeks. I can tell you he is quite loose preflop. He often makes very questionable calls of open raises and 3bets without regard for position, pot odds or SPR. He makes up for his dodgy preflop strategy by being a surprisingly good player after the flop. He is cautious with middling hands and practices pot control, but he is capable of making good calls and big folds. He is loose with draws, often chasing all the way. He picks his bluffing spots well though I've never seen him make a huge bluff. Or he's never had a huge bluff called.

      I think he sees me as tighter than him, but as a thinking, aggressive player, and not just as another gambler. He knows I can hand read to a good degree, and that I am also capable of bluffcatching AND laying down a good but second best hand.

      So I'm on the Button with a stack of about €300. The pot is straddled to €5 and three players limp ahead of me. I look down at Q :spade: Q :club: and make it €35 to go. It folds around to the local Villain. He has me covered.

      Flop is K :diamond: T :diamond: :9 :heart:

      I bet €55 and Villain calls.

      Turn is 2 :heart:

      I bet €75 and Villain calls.

      River is 9 :club:

      Villain shoves


      WTF
  • 11 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,914
      Originally posted by CreamyGoodness
      He picks his bluffing spots well though I've never seen him make a huge bluff. Or he's never had a huge bluff called.
      Well I can see why he has never had a huge bluff called.

      There are a host of hands he could conceivably have that beat 2nd pair on this board.

      He could have been chasing a draw that missed, but decided to take advantage of a scare card, or he could hold K9 -- or any Kx

      I don't have any experience at this level, nor live, but as the cards lie, I don't think that QQ is worth 300€.

      Cheers,
      --VS
    • CreamyGoodness
      CreamyGoodness
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2010 Posts: 229
      I know what you mean Vorpal, but all I could put him on was a 9 or a bluff.

      He has very few Kx in his range. He wouldn't play AK in this way (limping behind two others pre and flatting a raise by an aggro player on the BU), and it's hard for him to have KQ.

      While he is loose preflop, I don't think he would call my raise with KJ, KT or K9. If he did, he would have raised his two pair on flop or turn, and I cant see him jamming KQ or KJ on the river. Like I said, he is cautious with middling hands. I also doubt he would slowplay a set to the river here, especially when I have shown so much strength and the board is so drawy.

      Same can be said for a straight (QJ). Surely he would raise the flop or turn, particularly with the flush draws on board. And why would he then jam when the board pairs on the river.

      If he has a 9, what can it be? K9 and T9 surely raise the flop or turn, and how often does 98 or 97 make it to the river?

      After all that, the only range I can give him is missed draws or 9x, where x is a J or Q. Sets are also remotely possible, making up the smallest part of his range, and straights are in a similar position.

      You are probably right though, QQ is not worth 150bb, but given the side of the pot (I was getting 3-1) and the strange action, I called.
    • Rihard4a
      Rihard4a
      Gold
      Joined: 08.09.2010 Posts: 2,038
      Check flop, bet turn, bet river.
    • FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      Silver
      Joined: 30.12.2010 Posts: 3,107
      Checking flop is terrible imo because we heavily block nuts and draw hands, so betting strong 2 barrels seems pretty logical, once he calls both times and donks river I think we should fold readless most of the time; his line seems very strong.
    • Rihard4a
      Rihard4a
      Gold
      Joined: 08.09.2010 Posts: 2,038
      Originally posted by FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      Checking flop is terrible imo because we heavily block nuts and draw hands, so betting strong 2 barrels seems pretty logical, once he calls both times and donks river I think we should fold readless most of the time; his line seems very strong.
      Betting flop on texture where we are getting raised like 80% of the time with 2nd pair + gutshot is even worse. :)

      Check flop, bet turn, bet river. Keeps his calling range wider. If he has ATdd for example, he is unlikely to fold on such board run out. On the flop he might raise such hand and we are in difficult spot. OTT he is unlikely to raise with 2nd pair+draw for example, he is gonna bet only strong hands and pure bluffs himself or x/c hands that we beat. EASY GAME!
    • FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      Silver
      Joined: 30.12.2010 Posts: 3,107
      If we are playing vs player with high flop agg frequency I don't mind 3beting the flop with QQ here. I believe that checking the flop and bet bet afterwards is bad bcs we dont represent much, and good players will exploit us heavily in these spots if we take this line often.
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      I'd fold all day with QQ had I got to the river like this. Generally don't think that esp regs bluff nearly enough on 1/2 live and what u r describing is a loose-passive live-regfish. Not saying he's not a winner in that game but I doubt he'll show up with enough bluffs. 9:dX is my top guess.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      9 x makes a lot of sense. that said i also check flop, really don't see that much value in betting when compared to checking
    • CreamyGoodness
      CreamyGoodness
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2010 Posts: 229
      Originally posted by Rihard4a
      Originally posted by FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      Checking flop is terrible imo because we heavily block nuts and draw hands, so betting strong 2 barrels seems pretty logical, once he calls both times and donks river I think we should fold readless most of the time; his line seems very strong.
      Betting flop on texture where we are getting raised like 80% of the time with 2nd pair + gutshot is even worse. :)

      Check flop, bet turn, bet river. Keeps his calling range wider. If he has ATdd for example, he is unlikely to fold on such board run out. On the flop he might raise such hand and we are in difficult spot. OTT he is unlikely to raise with 2nd pair+draw for example, he is gonna bet only strong hands and pure bluffs himself or x/c hands that we beat. EASY GAME!
      Thanks guys, looks like I got a little debate here, which is what we're all about!

      I agree with Frankie here. He has so few Kx in his range that I don't see us being raised too often. His value hands are 2pair, sets and combo draws. If he raises flop (which this player does every time he beats TP in this spot), he has me crushed and I fold cheap.

      I think draws make up the bulk of his range here. Pure bluffs on the flop are close to zero for this player, esp when I have shown strength.
    • CreamyGoodness
      CreamyGoodness
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2010 Posts: 229
      But do you guys really fold on the river here? Is close to 4-1 not enough to bluffcatch with QQ?

      What would you want to bluff catch here? AK?
    • CustardKid
      CustardKid
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.05.2014 Posts: 171
      I would put this guy on 9xd since even two pair with kx is most likely to check call the river since Ak is definatly in your range, hence why he shoved instead of value bet he thought u was a worse player then You are and would call with ak