Odds & Outs - Question 11

  • 15 replies
    • markker76
      markker76
      Basic
      Joined: 03.06.2014 Posts: 3
      According to the answer given, "For a correct call with an OESD at the flop you need pot odds better than 5:1.".
      But the odds&outs table shows that the after the flop, the odds are actually 2:1.
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/quiz/weekly/2766/

      Am i missing something?


      Thanks,

      Mark
    • TimoDee
      TimoDee
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.08.2008 Posts: 153
      The odds represented by 2:1 are the odds of you completing the OESD if you continue with the hand all the way through (turn + river)

      The 5:1 odds are for completing the OESD on the next card, the turn. To call profitably you need to have better pot odds than the odds of you hitting on the next card, because then of course you may be faced with another bet.

      I'm not sure how far you've read up to on the strategy so I won't mention the implied odds just yet. But yeah to summarise, the odds of you hitting the OESD with 2 cards to go, roughly 2:1 but with only 1 card they are roughly 5:1
    • markker76
      markker76
      Basic
      Joined: 03.06.2014 Posts: 3
      I see what you mean. Thank you so much for the elaborated answer.

      What I still don't get is that according to your answer, I'd need to act the same way if I'd been in the OESD state in the flop or in the turn.
      When I'm in the flop, the fact that afterwards come 2 community cards shouldn't matter to me? According to the calculation as you presented it, I should take into account only the next card...
    • Harrier88
      Harrier88
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 1,986
      Originally posted by markker76
      When I'm in the flop, the fact that afterwards come 2 community cards shouldn't matter to me? According to the calculation as you presented it, I should take into account only the next card...
      That's correct. You always calculate your odds for the next street, because that's when your opponent has a chance to bet again and you'll be forced to make another decision.

      The only time when the odds for two remaining cards are used is when either you or your opponent goes all-in on the flop. That way, you're looking at two consecutive community cards for the same price, without having to make a decision about calling or folding on the next street.

      Hope that makes sense.
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,893
      Hey Mark,

      The problem here is you are only calling for the turn. It's likely that you would also have to call a turn bet if you blank the turn.

      You can only count turn and river outs here if you end up all in or you expect your opponent to check turn.

      Regards

      Laz
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,893
      Merged identical threads.
    • RakeVictim
      RakeVictim
      Basic
      Joined: 27.03.2014 Posts: 199
      There is not really a way to calculate that equity. You have to know the basics by equilating a lot for standard situations. But there is a trick, when you do not have a made hand and think that a specific number of outs is clean and makes you the nuts you can calculate

      Outs x 4 = Equity in % from Flop to River
      Outs x 2 + 2% = Equity from Turn to River

      So, let's say you have 2 Overcards and a Gutshot in a specific situation and you think that versus Villains Range half of the time the Overcards can make the best hand and the gutshot always. That would make 3+4 = 7 Outs, so about 36% Equity from Flop to River and 16% from Turn to River. This however is just a rough estimation, of course.

      Best way to learn:
      POKERSTOVE
    • darkonebg
      darkonebg
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 17.01.2008 Posts: 9,508
      RakeVictim is correct, the 2% rule is just a rough estimation, however it does work in some simple situations.

      I would recommend PokerStrategy.com Equilab rather than Pokerstove, it has more options and is also free.

      @markker76, let us know if you have any other questions regarding strategy!

      Best,
      Kamen
    • LynellHillaire
      LynellHillaire
      Basic
      Joined: 05.06.2014 Posts: 27
      Due to be newbie to poker, at now I am not able to solve your problem. But I am using Ace Poker Drills to learn about odds and outs in poker. It may help you more.
    • TheFrick
      TheFrick
      Silver
      Joined: 06.03.2014 Posts: 72
      i have another question.
      if a flush draw has 4:1 odds, the right call should me make only when the opponent bet 1/4 of the pot?
    • PerusJamppa
      PerusJamppa
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 2,714
      With 1/4 pot bet you're getting 5:1 odds so yes, you should call.
    • Harrier88
      Harrier88
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 1,986
      Originally posted by TheFrick
      if a flush draw has 4:1 odds, the right call should me make only when the opponent bet 1/4 of the pot?
      4:1 means 20% (in four cases you miss, in one case you hit), so your opponent would have to bet only 1/5 of the pot or less.

      That being said, this only takes regular pot odds into account. You could potentially still make a call if your opponent bets more as long as you're getting the right implied odds, meaning that you could win enough money to make the call profitable in case you do hit.

      This topic might be a little too complicated to describe in a couple of sentences, though, so I suggest you read the article on implied odds, if you're looking for more info on this.
    • TheFrick
      TheFrick
      Silver
      Joined: 06.03.2014 Posts: 72
      Thanks for the answer, i will read the article.the thing is, nobody bet 1/5 of the pot, and for a straight draw you have even less odds, so it makes me think that implied odds are more important then pot odds.
    • Harrier88
      Harrier88
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 1,986
      Originally posted by TheFrick
      the thing is, nobody bet 1/5 of the pot, and for a straight draw you have even less odds
      That's true, it's pretty rare. It mostly happens in big multiway pots. That's also the reason why it is recommended to play speculative hands like suited connectors in position and after a number of players have already entered the pot.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 9,212
      Originally posted by TheFrick
      Thanks for the answer, i will read the article.the thing is, nobody bet 1/5 of the pot, and for a straight draw you have even less odds, so it makes me think that implied odds are more important then pot odds.
      Hi, TheFrick,
      Yes, that is spot on.

      There is another way to get money from your draws.
      How to Play Strong Draws
      How do you play weak draws?

      Both of the above mention the semi-bluff.
      You need to know your opponents fairly well though. Specifically you need to know two things:
        Can they fold?
        Will they pay you off if you hit?

      Best of luck,
      --VS