Exploiting stats and not being exploited

    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Hi,

      I am interested in exploiting opponents stats, and not opening myself to exploits in the same way. This is not possible with current knowledge as i know? If not, how much should we exploit opponent to minimize the chance he exploits us?

      Lets say villain has a big leak postflop, and we can float vs him with 100% bluffs +EV and take the pot on turn.
      If i really float 100% bluffs, my range will be very bluff heavy on turn. Many of those bluffs will be only slightly +EV. (This question applies for all stats and kind of leak which we could exploit, just wanted to give example)

      Now if scenario comes that villain fixes totally his leak, or improves it (not fix completely), my floats that were slightly +EV will become big -EV, and I will need a lot of time to realize that he changed strategy (until his average stats or stats vs hero changes). Villian can notice that I exploit him, or simply improve his overall strategy which is very realistic.

      If I don't float 100% bluffs but just increase the float frequency a bit (only floats that are nice +EV and fold hands that are just slightly +EV), still my hands which are good for floating like e.g. gutshots, overcards with bdfd should still remain +EV but less positive. Now if he totally fixes his leaks, all combos which I floated extra to exploit him will be -EV.

      So, what should be the best way to exploit him and not be open too much for being exploited myself brutally? If I have to defend e.g. 66% to remain unexploited, I always fold at least 20% of range (unless my range is strong).
      But I took this threshold for folding just as a guess, and not sure what is optimal and how to calculate it?
  • 2 replies
    • booomm
      booomm
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.03.2011 Posts: 677
      Originally posted by GingerKid
      ....
      Now if scenario comes that villain fixes totally his leak, or improves it (not fix completely), my floats that were slightly +EV will become big -EV, and I will need a lot of time to realize that he changed strategy (until his average stats or stats vs hero changes). Villian can notice that I exploit him, or simply improve his overall strategy which is very realistic.
      that would be a big leak itself, you should konw wether vilain adjusted or not before the average stat changes drastically. let's say we are floating 100% with our bluffs as you said, vilain cbets flop and c/c turn and river with second pair or worse for the first time, that should raise a flag for us and we have to start readjusting accordingly.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Ok thats how we would notice he adjusted. But the question here is how much % bluffs to add when exploiting, or should i exploit him with each bluff which is +EV?