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Random thought about pot odds, playing draws and poker mindset.

    • Daggystyle
      Joined: 14.05.2014 Posts: 245
      Hello, i would like to get some insight on how to play draws most profitably.

      My concerns are when you should use pot odds to determine whether you should play your draw or not, when you should use implied odds in the mix to play your draw profitably.

      Let's say you have a flush draw to the nut flush IP, but you were not the preflop aggressor. The pot is 10 dollars and villain bets half the pot, which is what i most commonly see people do when C-betting. You then have 9 outs, which is roughly 20% chance you complete your draw and win the pot. This is not enough probability in order to call under the laws of pot odds. But then implied odds comes into the picture and you could call if there is a big chance the villain is willing to offer his whole stack into the pot.(which they rarely do when a flushdraw completes)

      Then my question is on what kind of boards is there more profitably to call/fold just with pot odds and on what kind of boards should you include implied odds?

      Example: A board with 2 of the same suit,2 mid connectors, one low card.

      After some reflection i find more arguments to use only pot odds here than to include implied odds. Firstly because there is high probability that villain is also playing a draw and only very rarely does both complete, so in my head it would not be profitable if you don't stick to pot odds.

      Example2: A board with 2 of the same suit, two high cards, one low.

      In my head it makes more sence to use implied odds on boards with cards that have high value, making it more likely that the aggressor preflop has hit something like TPTK two pair or sets while still thinking he has the best hand when my draw completes.

      Also i would like your opinions on risk.vs.reward in this game. Pot odds is a great "tool" to keep risks at a minimum, but i feel like you won't see many of your flush draws complete if you follow this method. As a very fresh poker player i'm not going to just learn what is the "recipe" for making it in this game as it goes against my nature of behaving. I'm a very open minded person and i value past information greatly, but i take everything with a pinch of salt as i like to think for myself and think of poker almost as a market, and markets are constantly changing. Making methods working in the past useless or atleast not as effective in the present. A market has rare events that most people associate with market crashes, in these rare events people with little knowlegde about risk management go bust. I see the same thing in poker with bad bankroll management, making people go bust when rare events hit (Downsvings as you may call them).

      I would like to be as randomness resistant as possible when launching what i hope to become a poker career at some point in the future. I would like to be so randomness resistant that the probability of me loosing a BI (which can be linked to a dip in the markets) is as little as possible within the realm of poker.

      After analyzing my game i see that i play draws to often, I tend to overplay pairs, and I make calls to float on a later street to often.

      The annoying thing is that i know i make these mistakes over and over, but my emotions run my decition making alot of the time. It's hard to be rational when action is demanded and easy to be rational when just thinking.

      This post got to the point where it became alot more than I intended it to be. Hope you all read this and leave your thoughts, experiences and strategies for dealing with these kind of problems.


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