Running at -EV

    • StartlingGrope
      StartlingGrope
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2014 Posts: 67
      I've been playing for a few years now but one of the things I'd never really considered before is what to make of a run of negative -EV. Until very recently I used to consider negative expectation over the course of a session as a sign that I hadn't been playing well, without really considering the fact that sometimes you're going to run kings into aces every time you get the money in and your EV is going to get punished as a result.

      Realistically though, when should an EV downswing start ringing alarm bells? Is it reasonable to play 100 S&Gs and be -EV but only to worry if you're still not +EV over 2,000 games or should you start asking questions if you're behind after 20. I appreciate that big sample sizes are everything but surely an ongoing measurement of EV is the best immediate example we have of how we're playing.
  • 2 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Originally posted by StartlingGrope
      Realistically though, when should an EV downswing start ringing alarm bells? Is it reasonable to play 100 S&Gs and be -EV but only to worry if you're still not +EV over 2,000 games or should you start asking questions if you're behind after 20. I appreciate that big sample sizes are everything but surely an ongoing measurement of EV is the best immediate example we have of how we're playing.
      Hi, StartlingGrope,
      Should it ever? The push/fold stage of a Sit-n-Go is going to totally mess with any EV lines on a graph.

      I don't think that the EV line can truly be used to make decisions on how to play.

      It is entirely possible that over a significant sample you are making solid poker decisions that result in a loss, simply because someone at the table had something better.

      Cheers,
      --VS
    • gadget51
      gadget51
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Moved to Sit and Go Discussion Forum.

      Regards,

      Mal.