[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH: 99 IP on Axx flushdrawboard vs nit opener

    • Diedobal
      Joined: 07.10.2007 Posts: 558
      $0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
      5 players
      Converted at weaktight.com

      UTG ($47.00) 10/10/1.5 ~50 hands.
      CO ($49.25)
      Hero ($54.30)
      SB ($45.25)
      BB ($94.90)

      Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is BTN 9:diamond: 9:heart:
      UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 2 folds

      Flop: A:diamond: 4:diamond: 2:spade: ($4.75, 2 players)
      UTG bets $3.50, Hero raises to $8, UTG calls $4.50

      Turn: A:spade: ($20.75, 2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero checks

      River: J:diamond: ($20.75, 2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $12
  • 5 replies
    • Tosh5457
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      the A will hit alot of his range, but that is in fact EV+ because of the money in the pot if you know he folds TT-KK. I'm not sure between a float and raise cbet here though, I guess he could c/c PPs on turn.

      On the river its hard for him to call with 77-TT I think, but QQ and KK will call. He could have an ace aswell.
    • Escientist
      Joined: 18.07.2007 Posts: 1,618
      Easy fold flop, A hits a big part of his range.
    • jakedamansnake
      Joined: 27.05.2008 Posts: 15
      i would say fold flop, but as played why check the turn when the a only makes your hand better
    • Tosh5457
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Originally posted by Escientist
      Easy fold flop, A hits a big part of his range.
      Giving him a range of 7.1%: TT+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo

      4.1% of this range has an ace. That's 57% of the range, but with another ace on the flop I think this reduces a bit.

      So he's risking $8 to win $8.25, he needs to win 50% of the time to breakeven, maybe more with rake. Sometimes the opponent will call with JJ-KK or he may have a fdraw himself. Maybe this is EV-...
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      He often has A himself, so imo it is better fold flop, rather than turn your hand into bluff.
      River bet is imo bad, he wouldn't b/c flop with KK, QQ and he won´t c/f trips on the river.