Being unlucky at poker!!

    • randombob
      randombob
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.05.2014 Posts: 174
      Hi,

      I know every poker player bemoans their luck, but Ive been keeping records recently from when I am all in pre flop

      I'm dominating
      won 2
      lost 3
      tied 2

      I'm dominated
      won 0
      lost 5

      Flipping I'm ahead
      won 5
      lost 11

      Flipping I'm behind
      won 5
      lost 12

      Ive got Over pair vs under pair
      won 1
      lost 3

      I've got under pair vs over pair
      won 0
      lost 4

      So I've won 13/48 hands!! I know it is only a small sample size but it's not even close to 50/50, and I have always remembered myself not winning many flips.
      Does this mean I'm not calling enough when other people shove or am I just an unlucky sod?
  • 8 replies
    • andiofwbafc
      andiofwbafc
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 397
      You are probably like me 'an unlucky sod' as you put it :)
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,914
      Hi, randombob,
      You might very well be unlucky.

      Have a look at this:
      http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

      If you just go there and see the graph, you can see the influence of variance.
      Using the same winrate, standard deviation and sample size, one lucky sod wins 7000+ BB another loses 7000+ BB and a whole host of others are in between.

      This is just randomness, though -- I'm sure the graph generator took 72o up against AA a lot more often that either of us would.

      But still, SOMEBODY has to be a luckbox.
      It seems to me that the luckbox gets passed from player to player, but you never know when it is your turn.

      Cheers,
      --VS
    • NightShadePMC
      NightShadePMC
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2010 Posts: 798
      You only remember your bad beats because that's what the human mind naturally does - remembers when something seemingly unfair happens to the individual much better than common stuff such as your AA holding. Given enough volume, a winning player will win an overwhelming majority of the time. Your time is better used studying the game rather than your bad beats.
    • randombob
      randombob
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.05.2014 Posts: 174
      Originally posted by NightShadePMC
      You only remember your bad beats because that's what the human mind naturally does - remembers when something seemingly unfair happens to the individual much better than common stuff such as your AA holding. Given enough volume, a winning player will win an overwhelming majority of the time. Your time is better used studying the game rather than your bad beats.
      I know people tend to remember their bad beats that is why I started to keep a record to see if I was just imagining it or not.

      I'll carry on doing it for a while and see how it pans out
    • spreeboy
      spreeboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.09.2010 Posts: 223
      Luck is underrated in poker. If you play around with variance simulator you will see samples of like 20 players with the same skill level. You will then see the brown line indicating the most unlucky player. Now no matter how good you are if its your turn to be that guy with the brown line, you will gonna lose or break even at best. Even if you input your lifetime hands with over a million samples, there will always be a brown-line guy, and there is always the possibility that it could be you. This is the reason why even the very best players loses or experience 50-100K hands break even stretches. The same strategy but varying luck.

      Its comforting to think that eventually variance will even out and we will win enough in the long run to cover our bad run. But no, poker sites will not remember our bad run. We could be fk on board run-outs, coolers, suck outs, etc. for an eternity and there is nothing we can do.

      Only the stubborn winning-players survive so you better be one. :D
    • biogas
      biogas
      Gold
      Joined: 22.07.2010 Posts: 384
      Well, there are three known cures for a bad run: BRM, volume and skill. All are fully controllable.
    • Paakjis
      Paakjis
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 141
      In poker you will always lose far more often than win, you just need to make the best of with when you have a best hand.

      I suggest to not pay attention on bad beats, if you multitable it's even real hard to notice it.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,914
      Originally posted by Paakjis
      In poker you will always lose far more often than win, you just need to make the best of with when you have a best hand.

      I suggest to not pay attention on bad beats, if you multitable it's even real hard to notice it.
      Thanks for that, Paakjis,
      It will go on my wall next to "Don't Panic!", and "Patience, Grasshopper"

      Best of luck,
      --VS