is it just me

    • billnmex
      billnmex
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2014 Posts: 47
      I am fairly new to on line poker and I understand that with the volume of hands there is a huge variance but I played a $0.55 poker stars tourny and was dealt 82 hands without an ace or face card. How is this possible? I am not complaining just baffled.
  • 19 replies
    • PerusJamppa
      PerusJamppa
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 2,714
      Because cards are dealt randomly it's very likely that at some point something very unlikely is going to happen. ;)
    • andiofwbafc
      andiofwbafc
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 397
      Originally posted by billnmex
      I am fairly new to on line poker and I understand that with the volume of hands there is a huge variance but I played a $0.55 poker stars tourny and was dealt 82 hands without an ace or face card. How is this possible? I am not complaining just baffled.
      82 hands without seeing an Ace, K, Q or J.

      The odds on that must be astonomical :D
    • TinoLaan
      TinoLaan
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,411
      Originally posted by PerusJamppa
      Because cards are dealt randomly it's very likely that at some point something very unlikely is going to happen. ;)
      This is very true! :D

      And yes, the odds of not seeing an A, K, Q or J 82 hands in a row are ridiculous. About 53% of hands have at least one A, K, Q or J. So yeah, your chances of not seeing one 82 times in a row is approximately 0.47^82 = lol

      But that's poker and very unlikely things do indeed happen quite often :)
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,245
      Originally posted by TinoLaan

      But that's poker and very unlikely things do indeed happen quite often :)
      Lol. Most players can tell stories of the most ridiculously unlikely things happening :facepalm:
    • RakeVictim
      RakeVictim
      Basic
      Joined: 27.03.2014 Posts: 199
      [ ] OP doesnt dealt A, K, Q or J in 82
    • Paakjis
      Paakjis
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 141
      It's more possbile to be dealt royal flush for several times :/
    • billnmex
      billnmex
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2014 Posts: 47
      well I am glad to see everyone got a chuckle and I accomplished something rare in poker. but can someone explain to me when I look up variance I keep reading it is higher at micro stakes why is this?
    • Harrier88
      Harrier88
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 1,971
      Originally posted by billnmex
      can someone explain to me when I look up variance I keep reading it is higher at micro stakes why is this?
      Mathematically speaking, it's the same on all levels. At micro stakes, however, you are more likely to run into situations where variance has an influence on the outcome because people are more likely to make weird moves. It's more likely that people will suck out against your strong hands if they are more willing to put their money in against your strong hands.

      At least as far as I can tell. I've actually never played higher than NL10, unfortunately.
    • kidzoltan
      kidzoltan
      Platinum
      Joined: 05.08.2010 Posts: 815
      BogdanPS has a great video about variance.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/25155/
    • PerusJamppa
      PerusJamppa
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 2,714
      Originally posted by billnmex
      but can someone explain to me when I look up variance I keep reading it is higher at micro stakes why is this?
      Basically if your EV is the same no matter what stakes you're playing, in micros variance is higher because the rake is much higher compared to blinds.
    • RakeVictim
      RakeVictim
      Basic
      Joined: 27.03.2014 Posts: 199
      so much fail in that thread...

      At micro stakes, however, you are more likely to run into situations where variance has an influence on the outcome because people are more likely to make weird moves. It's more likely that people will suck out against your strong hands if they are more willing to put their money in against your strong hands.

      :facepalm:

      in micros variance is higher because the rake is much higher compared to blinds.

      :facepalm:

      but can someone explain to me when I look up variance I keep reading it is lower at micro stakes why is this?

      FYP

      [ ] variance at micro stakes
      [ ] downswings in microstakes

      Believe me, if you have a downswing in microstakes (7-8bi or more) that means you suck at poker. It's not variance
    • Harrier88
      Harrier88
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 1,971
      Originally posted by RakeVictim
      At micro stakes, however, you are more likely to run into situations where variance has an influence on the outcome because people are more likely to make weird moves. It's more likely that people will suck out against your strong hands if they are more willing to put their money in against your strong hands.

      :facepalm:
      More situations where people push crap hands against you or where they call you down with any two cards = more opportunities where a suckout can potentially occur, isn't it?
    • booomm
      booomm
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.03.2011 Posts: 677
      I think you guys get it wrong here, variance is higher when edges are closer (higher stakes)
    • badgerer
      badgerer
      Silver
      Joined: 29.03.2010 Posts: 555
      Originally posted by RakeVictim
      Believe me, if you have a downswing in microstakes (7-8bi or more) that means you suck at poker. It's not variance
      this is terrible advice
    • RakeVictim
      RakeVictim
      Basic
      Joined: 27.03.2014 Posts: 199
      Originally posted by booomm
      I think you guys get it wrong here, variance is higher when edges are closer (higher stakes)
      this
    • ThatGuyMatt
      ThatGuyMatt
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2010 Posts: 3,758
      Swings and roundabouts is what it's all about.

      I had one cash session where I had AA around 15 times in 500 hands.
    • gadget51
      gadget51
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Hi Billnmex.

      Watch this from the mighty Bogdan, it explains about variance:

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/25155/

      Thank you kidzoltan for posting it ealier, nice one.

      Variance will be higher if your winrate is low as well as far as I know, but I wouldn't go into all that too much as bogdan says it like it is much better.

      Do what I did, enjoy leaning from the video and realise it's part of poker and we need it. How're we going to win without it? I don't know if (or think) we can, but it's not always bad variance is it?! :f_love:

      Best regards,

      Mal.
    • billnmex
      billnmex
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2014 Posts: 47
      Thanks gadget for the advice.I noticed someone else offered the same advice and I am going to watch it first chance I have. Also want to thank everyone for taking the time to give feedback. This is a great site and I cannot say THANKS enough
    • ShawnlovesShawn
      ShawnlovesShawn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.07.2014 Posts: 18
      Thats definitively strange! However, PokerStars is still by far the best hosted room to play in. I may be biased because I play there exclusively. As far as yer luck goes, keep playing and try not to put to much stock into luck! If your making good decisions regardless of the cards you are delt, you should do well! Keep playing and I doubt those exact conditions will persist! Happy days n happy plays!