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Why does variance come in group?

    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      When I get a bad beat they all start coming, one after another. Why is variance like this, comes in form of downswings and upswings(doesnt exist for me btw :P )?

      I dont get it, but i do know when variance comes i lose 2 to 5 BIs in less than 1 hour, and all goes wrong in that time. straights beat, flushes beat, constantly losing hands against completed draws, etc...

      What's up with this? why doesnt it come like it should, sporadically?

      I just lost 3 BIs in 1 hour, and i dont know wtf happens that 3 in 3 days or 2 in 2 days my whole profit goes in this hour. ?( ?( ?(
  • 5 replies
    • awkorama
      awkorama
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.09.2008 Posts: 18
      actually it isn't true.

      only humans perceive these as groups.. actually all hands are independent of each other.
    • Tosh5457
      Tosh5457
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2008 Posts: 3,062
      Originally posted by awkorama
      actually it isn't true.

      only humans perceive these as groups.. actually all hands are independent of each other.
      variance definitely comes in group, I could make a video of that "hour" and you'd see what happens. its so sick :(

      the probability of those bad beats happening one after each other is so low, why does it happen though? its more than a probability, its always happening to me and other people
    • Zheelvern
      Zheelvern
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.10.2007 Posts: 705
      I see that too... 50K hands of downswing and then 50K hands of miracle upswing where I just can't lose with anything.
      No way to see some 100 hands downswing, and then something normal after, lol.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      3 bi's per/hour isn't the worst case scenario)
      thinking a lot about variance doesn't help either) just concentrate on decisions you make, big part of the loss is there.

      what people tend to forget, is everytime you win a pot w/o the nuts, you are running over expectation)
    • srohack
      srohack
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 1,908
      hi
      i think usualy we dont realise that after we lose 1 . 2 . 3 bins most of us cant play our best game further more and conscious or subconsious Mr Tilt comes and says hello and we usualy let him in . very rarely we lose 5 bins in 30 mins when we play well and take the right decisions . most of the time our thinking will be damaged by the money lost with the first to bins and this will lead into losing some more (without playing corectly)
      gl