Flop defence of 456r

    • TeamCupcake
      TeamCupcake
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2014 Posts: 35
      Hi all,

      This might fall into the hand range category, but I don't have a hand history to post as this is more about building my flop play.

      Hero is BTN and is dealt XX

      UTG folds
      MP folds
      CO raises to 3BB
      Hero calls
      SB folds
      BB folds

      7.5BB in the pot
      Flop is 4 :heart: 5 :diamond: 6 :club:
      CO bets 5.6BB (75% of pot)

      Now my default flat list vs CO, assuming they're a 25% opener (and lets say they are for this example), is:

      JJ-22
      AQs-ATs
      KQs-KTs
      QJs-QTs
      JTs
      AQo-AJo
      KQo

      If I'm building a defence against the cbet here, I need to defend 57% (5.6/(5.6+7.5) = 43%...or thereabouts.

      And my 152 combos vs 25% PF open range becomes 143 after the flop.

      Therefore...143*57% is 82 combos to defend against any two cards cbetting profitably.

      In building this defence, I'm struggling to balance my Value Raises, Bluffs and Flats. I have...



      VALUE RAISES

      9 Sets 44-66
      6 Over pair with OESD 77

      FLATS

      18 Overpairs JJ-99
      6 Underpair with OESD
      3 Over cards with BDFD AQ :heart: , AQ :diamond: , AQ :club:

      BLUFFS

      13 Overcards AQo, AQ :spade:



      This gives me 15/13 VR to Bluff...which are low totals, but a good ratio...and 27 Flats. Which totals 55...way shy of the optimal 82...

      Am I being too nitty in not VR JJ-99??

      Should I have 87s-65s in my Flat list??

      Or should I accept this is a board that isn't going to hit me well and deal with my 38% defence??

      Thanks in advance for any advice or feedback.

      Cheers,
      TC
  • 5 replies
    • ZeDawning
      ZeDawning
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.02.2011 Posts: 204
      Am I missing something? I dont seem to get 143 combos after flop.
    • TeamCupcake
      TeamCupcake
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2014 Posts: 35
      Originally posted by ZeDawning
      Am I missing something? I dont seem to get 143 combos after flop.
      You are right...I counted AK in my range when it clearly isn't.

      Amended...

      132 combos to flat PF...

      123 excluding flop cards...

      Leaves 70 combos to defend on the flop...which is closer to the 55 I have...but still not there...
    • ZeDawning
      ZeDawning
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.02.2011 Posts: 204
      I get 123 combos. So Im gonna assume you also call w T9s.
      So 127 combos.
      Target defense @ 72 combos.

      Value Raise - Set (9), 77(6)
      Bluff Raise - Ax and Kx.bdfd(18)
      Flat - Overpairs (24), 22,33 (12)
      Total = 69

      I think 69 is okayish. We can also raise w AQo too but meh, it gives too much of an imbalance b/n value and bluff.

      -> Still BR is 1.2x more than VR but this can be justified by,
      - We are IP
      - Flop doesn't hit villain's range well

      Personally, as default, I might even call w Ax.bdfd and raise AQo and Kx.bdfd. So I defend even more, on a board which doesnt hit villain that well.
      But this is assuming villain CBs 100% of his range, which might not be the case.
    • TeamCupcake
      TeamCupcake
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2014 Posts: 35
      Originally posted by ZeDawning
      I get 123 combos. So Im gonna assume you also call w T9s.
      So 127 combos.
      Target defense @ 72 combos.

      Value Raise - Set (9), 77(6)
      Bluff Raise - Ax and Kx.bdfd(18)
      Flat - Overpairs (24), 22,33 (12)
      Total = 69

      I think 69 is okayish. We can also raise w AQo too but meh, it gives too much of an imbalance b/n value and bluff.

      -> Still BR is 1.2x more than VR but this can be justified by,
      - We are IP
      - Flop doesn't hit villain's range well

      Personally, as default, I might even call w Ax.bdfd and raise AQo and Kx.bdfd. So I defend even more, on a board which doesnt hit villain that well.
      But this is assuming villain CBs 100% of his range, which might not be the case.

      Villian in EP with a low flop is going to cbet a large portion of his range. I sure am!

      Thank you for the input and putting up with my scattered numbers, clearly I'm just getting a handle on thinking at this level.

      Cheers,
      TC
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      Originally posted by TeamCupcake

      If I'm building a defence against the cbet here, I need to defend 57% (5.6/(5.6+7.5) = 43%...or thereabouts.
      This is a very poor assumption to start with. Some reasoning why this doesn't work is in this video of mine: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/32388/



      You can flat 22 and AJ KQ as well on the flop. 22 is a pretty standard call. AJs KQs only if you have a reason for it, like he cbets too much or plays too tight on 4-straight runouts.