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[NL2-NL10] NL100 Flushdraw.

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Party Poker
      No Limit Holdem Ring game
      Blinds: $0.50/$1
      10 players

      Stack sizes:
      UTG: $99.73
      UTG+1: $119.24
      UTG+2: $113.86
      MP1: $53.29
      MP2: $116
      MP3: $59
      CO: $119.61
      Button: $273.29
      SB: $100
      Hero: $18.04

      Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with 4 A
      UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 7 folds, 7 folds, Hero checks.

      Flop: 6 7 3 ($3.5, 3 players)
      Hero bets $3, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds.

      Turn: J ($9.5, 2 players)
      Hero bets $5, UTG raises to $15, Hero calls all-in $9.04.
      Uncalled bets: $0.96 returned to UTG.

      River: J ($37.58, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $37.58)

      Final pot: $37.58

      Virtually unknown opponent(10 hands) so i leave out stats.

      I Do not like the way this hand panned out. Especially my misclick on Turn. (Party froze and next thing i know, i have been reraised)
  • 3 replies
    • caltabiano
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Your pot odds for a shove on the turn would be 2.9:1 if you got called..

      I wouldn't give you all your 13 outs here, because your straight would be kind of a shitty one. I'll give you 10. That's 3.6:1. So you'll complete your hand in about 22% of the cases.

      You'd need to win in 26% of the cases though. Let's see how often he has to fold for you to break even:

      0 = FE x (9,5) + 0,22 x 17,61 - 9,04 x (0,78 - FE)
      0 = FE (9,5) + 3,88 - 9,04 x (0,78 - FE)
      0 = FE (9,5) + 3,88 - 7,05 + 9,04FE
      0 = 18,54FE - 3,17
      FE = 0,17

      So he needs to fold 17% of the hands in order for you to break even in this case.
      Were my calculations correct? This is the first time I calculate EV :P

      If they were.. Well, I think if you shove it at once on the turn, you can achieve 17% of fold equity. But then again if this equity is too high, your move would end up being -EV, right...
      I don't think it would be too high though. I THINK you could shove it on the turn. But I suppose you have to do it on your first move
    • IngolPoker
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,485
      of course bet turn, what else?

      checkfold with flushdraw, gutshot, overcard, initiative and maybe the best hand against any draws?
    • Kruppe
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,145
      looks like villain has a weak pair or a draw. you're ahead against draws and J gives you FE against weak pairs.