EV calculations?

    • jameshewson7
      jameshewson7
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.07.2013 Posts: 14
      I played this hand last session vs a mega fish (85/23 over 150 hands) and I wanted to do some math work on it for practice. I'm trying to calculate how often I need to be right when I made this call against fish's range for this to be profitable in the long run. Do we use the 'break-even = risk / risk + reward' formula here? (I got 68% meaning that I would have to be right 68% of the time for it to be profitable, yes?)
      Many thanks to anyone's input :)

      Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players

      MP2: $6.34
      Hero (CO): $4.86
      BTN: $5.00
      SB: $1.81
      BB: $6.46
      UTG: $2.27
      UTG+1: $5.00
      MP1: $5.31

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with Th Tc
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, SB calls $0.13, BB calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.45) 4s 5d 7s (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.32, SB raises to $1.66 all in, BB folds, Hero calls.

      Turn: ($3.77) Kd (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($3.77) 8s (2 players - 1 is all in)

      Final Pot: $3.77
      Hero shows Th Tc (a pair of Tens)
      SB shows Kh 5s (two pair, Kings and Fives)
      SB wins $3.61
      (Rake: $0.16)
  • 7 replies
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      not sure how you did this but i have different numbers:

      BE = amount to call / (pot + amount to call)
      BE = 1.34 / (2.11 + 1.34)
      BE = 39%

      to calculate your EV of calling is a bit different and requires (at least) an estimate of your equity.

      EV(call) = (final pot after all money goes in * equity) - investment

      for example, using your equity of TT vs K5 in this spot (71%)...

      EV(call) = (3.61 * 0.71) - 1.34
      EV(call) = $1.22, or 24.4bb

      hope i didn't make mistakes and hope that helps.
    • jameshewson7
      jameshewson7
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.07.2013 Posts: 14
      Ahh thanks man! Yeah I calculated the BE formula wrong and can see where I went wrong now with that. Also thanks for the EV help. I ran his flop 2 bet shove ranges against my 10s through the equity calc and found that because he is a super fish that would do that with basically any one pair and all the other combinations that beat me, he still has a ton of worse hand combos that gives me a good 65% equity. (there's no way in hell I would assign the same range to a stronger player).
      So given my assumptions calling in this spot is definitely +EV
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      yeah, also if we see his stack size as so low we can't really fold because we always get the odds now.

      i also notice u dont have auto-rebuy on, is there a reason?
    • jameshewson7
      jameshewson7
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.07.2013 Posts: 14
      What makes you say that? It is set to rebuy if I fall below %90 of my starting stack :/
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      ah i see, just thought you didn't have rebuy on.
    • ThaiRosi
      ThaiRosi
      Basic
      Joined: 12.08.2014 Posts: 1
      Tbh I don't think you need to be working anything out, it's a snap call all day and especially at these limits :)
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      Originally posted by ThaiRosi
      Tbh I don't think you need to be working anything out, it's a snap call all day and especially at these limits :)
      of course, but it isn't so much about this particular hand being +EV but practising the maths is always helpful. we can change the variables and play around with the calculation to see many different similar situations and that's where the value is, not in just seeing if TT is a +EV call here.