Valuing potential flush and/or st8 calls

    • Valsomething
      Valsomething
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2010 Posts: 20
      Hi all;

      I don't have a specific hand I want to throw out there but a general situation I am having some trouble with with the hope someone can provide some insight.

      Scenario - you are in a hand and post flop you have either top pair with a good kicker, 2 pairs or even better, a set. But there is a flush or st8 draw. You make a decent sized bet - say 3/4 pot - to push the other players off the hand or pay to see the draw.

      Either on the turn or the river, the dreaded card card drops and your instincts scream "they hit" their flush or st8 and they make a pot sized bet or perhaps even go all in.

      Now I realise the answer will depend widely on the activity - position, betting patterns, pot size until the river etc - but I am hoping there is a general strategy.

      I find it not any easier but easiest when I have position and the dreaded card drops on the turn. The opponent check calls both your bets post flop and turn then decides to put in the big bet at the river. I figure they were slow playing the made hand on the turn to extract maximum value.

      However, it is not so easy when either the card drops on the river or they have position on you and you check the river - giving them an opportunity put in a big bluff bet sensing your weakness. Or perhaps I am the short stack and they are simply trying to bully me off the hand.

      My question is - is there a way to value that call rather than a simple call/fold decision? Assuming it is a pot sized bet, your looking at putting in a 33% pot call. The various calculation methods - pot odds, equity, implied odds - help during play but not so useful after all the community cards are out.

      Any thoughts would be appreciated.

      Valsomething
  • 6 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      standard = fold

      what you might want to consider: is your opponent capable of bluffing? could he even turn a made hand into a bluff?
      if yes, "what is his range", can he have enough bluffs to compensate for when he has it?
    • Valsomething
      Valsomething
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2010 Posts: 20
      Thanks for taking the time reply Tomaloc - I realise there are many individual hand details/situations to take into account.

      My question is trying to find out if there is a method of calculating the value to decide to fold or call - not so much on the circumstances as there would be too many to discuss in any meaningful degree on such a generic question.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Originally posted by Valsomething
      Thanks for taking the time reply Tomaloc - I realise there are many individual hand details/situations to take into account.

      My question is trying to find out if there is a method of calculating the value to decide to fold or call - not so much on the circumstances as there would be too many to discuss in any meaningful degree on such a generic question.
      Hi, Valsomething...
      When you say, "calculating the value" it sounds like you mean equity.

      To calculate equity, you need to have a good idea of the opponents range.

      If you have a good idea of the opponents range, then you can use Equilab.

      For example, here is a case where Hero in BU holds 88 and flats vs UTG preflop.
      He flops a set, but there are straight draws on the board.

      Here is what equilab says:

      Board: K:heart: J:heart: 8:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    16.48%  16.48%   0.00% { 99+, 77-66, AJs+, AQo+ }
      BU     83.52%  83.52%   0.00% { 8h8c }


      You can refine these ranges as much as you like -- I just took a standard tight 6-max UTG range.

      Equilab can only deal with the cards. You have to collect and process the information on the players.

      With 88 on that board vs a standard tight UTG, you'll win 83% of the time at showdown.
      UTG can CBet pot size (I see this a lot now -- I used to think it was strong, now I'm not so sure) with two pair, flush draws, straight draws, higher sets.

      Knowing you'll win 83% of the time you get to showdown helps a bit, but a lot can happen between flop and showdown!

      The depends somewhat on limits too -- at NL 5 and lower, I re-raising any CBet on this board -- like you say, if he does have a draw, give him odds such that they are against him to call, but remember reverse implied odds -- if he DOES hit, you don't want to pay him off.

      Equilab is a great tool (and free), and you can find it in the software section

      Best of luck,
      --VS
    • Valsomething
      Valsomething
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2010 Posts: 20
      Hi Vorpal;

      Thank you for suggestion as it seemed to address my question and I downloaded the software and had a look. A few questions;

      1. It seems the software is designed for 6-max - is there a version for a full table or a feature to modify it?

      2. The software calculates the winning percentage but doesn't have any provisions for the pot size - is there a way to work out the equity value for the call in chip or dollar terms?

      Thanks in advance
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Hi, Valsomething,
      I'm using v1.2.8 -- just in case these instructions don't work...

      Q1.
      On the main menu, click "View".
      There are 3 checkboxes -- clear the one for "short handed" and the missing positions automagically appear.

      Q2.
      (I *think* this is what you're asking, but I'm not sure).
      In the example I gave above 88 had 83% equity vs the selected range (which is always a guess at best) on the given board.

      There is no information available about pot size or stack size, but both clearly are important decision factors at the table.

      If you run this scenario out 100 times to showdown (there will be other times when somebody folds) then of the showdown hands you will win 83% of the time, but if you win every time it is checked down, and lose every time you shove, you're going to lose a lot more than you win.

      So Q2 leads to a discussion of the difference between equity (your share of the pot in terms of your chances to win) and EV -- the $ value that you can expect to gain.

      Unfortunately, I can't remember where I read all that.
      I think it may have been part of the first Beginner's course but I can't find it.
      I thought it was a strategy article on poker math.

      I'll ask the other mods...
      --VS
    • Valsomething
      Valsomething
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2010 Posts: 20
      Thanks again for your thoughts