hitting flops

    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      I'm curious to understand how I connect with different flop textures from different positions, assuming standard open raising ranges.

      I know flopzilla and even equilab's pie function shows us how often we hit certain hands, and that's great, but I'm more interested to know what exactly it means to "hit a flop", because it seems very arbitrary.

      If you open UTG with {55+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo+,KQo} for example and you see a K72r flop, you can define "hit" in different ways. You hit TPGK+ ~25% of the time, but you have a BDFD and TPGK+ about 50% of the time for example. change the flop texture to T72tt and you now have BDFD, FD, GS, and TPGK+ around 70% of the time.

      If we define "hit" as anything that gives us a cbettable (i.e. no pure bluffs) hand, then we "hit" the T76tt flop much more than the K72r flop, despite this last one being a "classic" cbet flop.

      So my question is, how do we define "hit"?
      1) as a cbettable (and preferably with barrel-potential) range?
      2) as TPGK+?
      3) as how often we can have a nutted range?
      4) is this always relative to an assumed range for villain?

      I'm really wondering.
  • 4 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      Originally posted by DrDunne
      4) is this always relative to an assumed range for villain?
      ofc you can define "hit" in various ways, but i think this is the most useful way to think about it when thinking in terms of cbet's folding equity.
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      It mainly has to do with both players ranges and how each piece of these ranges interact with each other.

      Like:

      - how does your bluffs interact with villains value/bluffcatchers? Are you dead a lot? Do you have equity?
      - How does your value interact with villains value? Is villain capped low (i mean, are you best hands a lot better than villains best hands?)
      - How does your mid strength hands interact with villains weaker bluff catcher or floats? This is also important for betsizing purposes

      So, in those 2 examples you gave, your analysis, it gives the impression that we should be cbetting more frequently on T72tt than on K72r, which may not be true.

      Let's take another example, we open MP and villain calls BU, flop 443r

      We should be cbetting very frequently, since our bluffs have good equity against villains bluffcatchers and top end value (QQ+) crushes villains range. Also, we should be betting big (75%-potsize), since we want to minimize villain's EV of calling flop with hands like AQ.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      What do you mean by cbetting very frequently on 433? Bluff heavy? Or you mean balanced range will be frequent allready?

      If you want to minimize EV of his weak bluff catchers, why not overbet flop, because that way we really go towards EV minimization? On one hand, if we bet smaller he is forced to defend very wide range having big equity disadvantage (not nice spot), and that way his AQ gets higher EV, but there are weaker hands now that he calls having bad EV. That way we can bet for value also AQ+.
      On the other hand, by betting big, we fold his weak part of range which is very glad to fold (and we lose value vs those range) and he gets worse ev for AQ (not necessarly more value for us vs AQ if he folds it on turn).

      So when villian is in so tough spot on flop, it seems to me that by betting big we just make him defend easier, overfold flop (he has to overfold some street due to equity disadvantage and for us it is worst if he overfolds flop).
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Just to add about AQ EV. If we are assuming betting balanced ranges, in that case by betting bigger or smaller the EV of AQ will stay 0, since that is the definition of balanced range. So the reason to bet big shouldnt be to decrease EV of his bluff catchers because it is not possible. It should be the reason like we get avarage EV of range higher, but imo it is very hard to say if small bet or big is better.