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odds w allins

    • BIKEBOY79
      Joined: 20.02.2013 Posts: 12
      Started playing $0.25 45-man SNGs at Pokerstars 2 weeks ago. Built bankroll from free $10 to $20, so though small sample size, I am doing well. I am a tight player, too tight I'm sure.

      What I'm trying to figure out is that even though I'm winning $, I'm only ITM 1 out of 3 or 4 SNGs. The other times I lose out to a preflop allin, almost always with < 15 BB and 5/6 times to worse hold cards. Is this just the way it goes - you lose more than win, but when you win it makes up for the losses? Can't figure how I almost always have better hole cards, but don't win as much as the odds would suggest.
  • 2 replies
    • andiofwbafc
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 397
      One word for you. Variance.

      If you keep getting it in good then over time you will show a profit. :)
    • Harrier88
      Joined: 01.05.2012 Posts: 2,168
      Hi BIKEBOY79,

      andiofwbafc is right. SNGs are a relatively variance-heavy format, especially the ones with bigger fields. You are forced to put your tournament life on the line quite a few times in these games, so it's inevitable that you will end up in situations where a worse starting hand will end up winning.

      You may be interested to know that in a SNG, it is not always enough to be a slight favorite to win the hand, due to a concept known as the risk premium.

      But don't worry, suckouts just happen, and if you keep putting your chips in as a favorite in the right situations you can be sure to eventually make a profit in the long run.
      In MTSNGs, it's more important to finish deep than to barely make it ITM as often as possible anyway.