Can someone explain HEM 2 EV for HU SNG for me please

    • adamall
      adamall
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.02.2009 Posts: 178
      For a while now I was wondering if HEM 2 is broken or something. I would win a SNG getting it in as a favorite but my luck adjusted winnings would go down.

      Here is two hands I will post now

      Poker Stars, $1.44 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: 670 (33.5 bb)
      Hero (SB): 330 (16.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 4 7
      Hero completes, BB raises to 80, Hero calls 60

      Flop: (160) 6 K 5 (2 players)
      BB bets 80, Hero raises to 250 and is all-in, BB calls 170

      Turn: (660) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: (660) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      660 pot
      Final Board: 6 K 5 2 8
      BB showed J 6 and lost (-330 net)
      Hero showed 4 7 and won 660 (330 net)


      Equity
      Preflop: 41.1%
      Flop: 57.3%
      Turn: 38.6%

      Results in tournament results tab

      Net won: 330
      bb: 16.50
      cEV Diff: -282
      $EV Diff: -0.81


      Poker Stars, $1.44 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BB): 660 (22 bb)
      SB: 340 (11.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 8
      SB raises to 60, Hero raises to 660 and is all-in, SB calls 280 and is all-in

      Flop: (680) A 7 4 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
      Turn: (680) 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
      River: (680) 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

      Results:
      680 pot
      Final Board: A 7 4 5 5
      Hero showed 8 8 and won 680 (340 net)
      SB showed Q 9 and lost (-340 net)


      Equity
      Preflop: 55.3%
      Flop: 76.1%
      Turn: 86.4%

      Results in tournament results tab

      Net won: 340
      bb: 11.33
      cEV Diff: -304
      $EV Diff: -0.88

      Total tournament results

      Winnings: $2.88
      Net Winnings: $1.38
      $EV: $1.19

      Which pushes my Luck adjusted winnings down by .19

      Every other hand is ev neutral because i didn't go to show down.

      Can someone tell me if its broken or I just don't understand it

      Thanks
  • 7 replies
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 27,060
      Hello adamall

      I moved your thread to HM board, because its fits better there.
      Looks like you won both hands on showdown.
      That’s why luck adjusted winnings dropped, because on long run you win hand 1 57,3% of the time on the moment your going all-inn.
      On the moment you win 100% of the time luck adjusting winnings and profit will be the same.
      That happened when the action closed on river or without a showdown.
      If you had lost the hand luck adjusted winnings will growth and profit will decrease.

      If you have more questions about luck adjusted winnings don’t hesitate to ask it.

      Best regards,
      SDK1987
    • adamall
      adamall
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.02.2009 Posts: 178
      So luck adjusted winnings (or EV) in my mind would work like this

      Using the first hand as an example but changing the numbers to make it a little easier

      If I shove all in for $3 into a $4 pot and get called the pot is $10

      even though i win this pot by the river, I still win this pot only 57% of the time so $EV is $5.70 or EV Diff of $4.30

      My luck adjusted winnings graph would still trend upwards, just at a more gradual incline.

      however as you can see in the results below... that wasn't the case.

      The results per hand are correct but the results for the tournament don't seem to be

      I guess the question I am asking is that I get it in as a favorite in both hands

      but at the end of the day my tournament EV (not hand EV) says I made a -EV play

      can anyone explain the difference
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,907
      Hi, adamall...
      I will try.

      Let's make it easy:
      You shove 100 BB and get called.
      The pot is then 200 BB
      If when you shove you have 60% Equity, your luck-adjusted winnings are 120BB

      If you later win the hand, you win 200BB

      So your luck-adjusted winnings are still 60%

      If you lose, you win 0 BB, but your luck-adjusted winnings are still 120BB.

      Make sense?

      Cheers,
      --VS
    • adamall
      adamall
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.02.2009 Posts: 178
      yep i get that side of equity.

      but in your example you are correctly showing a profit of 20BB

      so if you graph this result you will have 2 lines

      one line EV showing a 20BB profit

      one line net winnings showing 100BB profit

      this is correct and how i assume it would look.

      however this is my results below. If you look over all it says that my EV for this tournament is $1.19, and you can see all the hands below. You can also see the HH in my first post for both hands including my equity when i get it in.

      So what I dont understand is how I can make 2 correct and profitable decisions and arrive at a -EV result. Is my HEM calculating EV incorrectly or am I missing something?


    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,907
      Hi, adamall
      I overlooked the fact that this is an SnG

      Were you heads up both hands?

      If so, chip EV should be the same as $EV -- if not, you might get it in with a hand that is ahead of your opponents hand, but may be -EV according to ICM

      I'm going to shut up now and wait for the real answer, 'cuz now I'm baffled.

      --VS
    • adamall
      adamall
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.02.2009 Posts: 178
      Yeah the SNG is HU Hypers sorry and yeah I dont get it either
    • Ramble
      Ramble
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 1,421
      I just posted about this in another thread last night... I hope this helps:

      Let's say you have AA all-in vs TT in a $20 pot.

      AA should win about 80% of the time, so your expected value ($EV) is $20 x 0.8 = $16 (on average over the long term in this situation).

      Now to talk about $EV Diff - this is how your actual result deviates from the expected result. Think of it as what you'd have to pay or receive to get back to the expected.If your expected value ($EV) is $16 and you win the $20 pot, you've actually won $4 more than expected - so this is shown as a negative $4. If you lost the $20 pot, you've actually lost $16 more than expected - so this is shown as a positive $16. Remember $EV Diff is about getting the balance back to what was the expected value.

      Finally if you look at one tournament in HM2, Your winnings = $EV value - total $EV Diff (from each individual hand).I hope this clarified instead of confused.