30 stacks down.

    • dandycal
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Downswings are an unpleasant thing for a poker player. Yet no one can really get rid of them. I see many players losing their minds over great losses, but there is advice everywhere for us to keep ourselves together during difficult times.

      I have read about techniques, or tricks, to win mmoney on casino games such as the roulette. The basic principle behind it was one of an "unequal distribution". It says that mathematical probabilities will work themselves out in the long term, but in the short term one tends to experience great streaks of coincidences and unlikely sequences of events. I myself have once seen the roulette hit a red number 15 times in a row,as my bets were always on the black colour, I lost everything. It was 50% chance for me, and I lost 15 times.

      It is nearly impossible for a poker player to maintain an average winning daily. Your average can only be calculated after several thousand hands (I'd say 100K at least).

      I have now been on a downswing for 10000 hands, 30 stacks down. I evaluate my game daily to make sure I am not tilting. However, on the first 4000 hands that I ever played, as I had just started studying in Pokerstrategy, I won nearly 20 stacks, which is even more absurd than my downswing.

      So I advise everyone not only to be prepared to withstand great losses, but first be ready to withstand great winnings without being over excited and thinking that poker is like that, an easy way to easy money. It isn't, it takes study and discipline.

      Good luck to everyone, and make sure you evaluate your hands on good times and bad times!
  • 1 reply
    • SalamiandCheese
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      The thing with roulette is that after the 14th spin and red comes up for the 14th time, there's still 50/50 chance (minus the chances of a 0, which is the house's edge) that another red will appear on the next spin. Believing otherwise is called the "gambler's fallacy." Roulette is negative EV in the long run due to the house edge.

      In poker, a player who can take advantage of the times when there is a +EV play and avoid -EV plays will win in the long-run. There can be significant variance of course (ie. losing 15 flips in a row) but it's the long-run we're concerned with, and having an adequate bankroll to deal with the downswings is key.