Spin and Gos

    • billnmex
      billnmex
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2014 Posts: 47
      just wondering how the house is making money off these. how, when 3 players enter for $10 each and the payout is $60 does this work? there has to be a catch.
  • 25 replies
    • badgerer
      badgerer
      Silver
      Joined: 29.03.2010 Posts: 555
      pretty sure the house is making more rake from these than standard sng's. they take a loss when the prize pool is multiplied but the times that you play for 2 buyins which is by far the most likely outcome more than makes up for this.
    • mute20
      mute20
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2011 Posts: 563
      here you go with the most recent changes.

    • MichFran
      MichFran
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2007 Posts: 156
      Originally posted by billnmex
      just wondering how the house is making money off these. how, when 3 players enter for $10 each and the payout is $60 does this work? there has to be a catch.
      Don't you worry about PS, they know how to calculate a profit out of these ;)
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Here is the breakdown using the above table for $1 GI games :

              Multiplier    Quantity            
                    3600           1      3600  
                     240           5      1200  
                     120          10      1200  
                      25         100      2500  
                      10         500      5000  
                       6        7500     45000  
                       4       18366     73464  
                       2       73518    147036  
                     Sum      100000    279000  
                 7% Rake                 21000  
        Total Prize Pool                300000  


      The catch is that you need to win a decent percentage of your 2x games, because you'll be playing more of them than of anything else.

      Cheers,
      VS
    • Bullettooth12
      Bullettooth12
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2014 Posts: 82
      Most of the time you only play for x2 your wager. So if you play the $1 one, 3 players register so that should be a $3 prize pool but its only $2. So PS have taken rake AND that extra $1.
      That's how they make money on these.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Originally posted by Bullettooth12
      Most of the time you only play for x2 your wager. So if you play the $1 one, 3 players register so that should be a $3 prize pool but its only $2. So PS have taken rake AND that extra $1.
      That's how they make money on these.
      Hi, Bullettooth12
      If you check two or three posts back, you'll see a table where it shows quite clearly that the "extra $1" is given back in the higher-multiple games.

      The "extra $1" is not rake in the usual sense of the word -- it is part of a larger prize pool from the which the higher-multiple games are paid.

      The "difference" between the amount paid in, and the amount paid across all multiples is 7%

      The 7% goes to PokerStars bottom line. The "extra $1" would be considered a fund from which to pay Spingo prizes.

      Cheers,
      VS

    • lynius
      lynius
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2011 Posts: 382
      1-----------0.00001------3000------0.03
      5-----------0.00005------200-------0.01
      10---------0.0001--------100-------0.01
      100--------0.001---------25---------0.025
      500--------0.005---------10---------0.05
      7500------0.075----------6----------0.45
      18366-----0.18366------4----------0.73464
      73518-----0.73518------2----------1.47036

      =$2.78 payed out on average, compared to $3 taken from all players

      2.78/3 = 92.66% => ~ 6% rake.

      The second column is the probability of the payout.

      The third column is the payout.

      The final column shows the effective value of all results, which sums up to = $2.78

      Just noticed that Vorpal has already done this, based on 100,000 instances instead of probability, so I can see I've got a rounding error.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Hi, lynius,
      I took the numbers from PokerStars own Spingo page

      And yes, it is probably a rounding thing.

      Also, I'm pretty sure that the occurrence of 3600x prizes is random, so sometimes PokerStars will be ahead, sometimes behind, but with their volume it will even out in short order.

      Cheers,
      VS
    • paraliasssss
      paraliasssss
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.10.2009 Posts: 1
      The extra money is offer...
    • lynius
      lynius
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2011 Posts: 382
      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      I'm pretty sure that the occurrence of 3600x prizes is random, so sometimes PokerStars will be ahead, sometimes behind, but with their volume it will even out in short order.
      VS
      This is true - if they randomly generate the prize pools (my opinion leans that this is the appropriate assumption)

      However, it would be interesting to consider that they may produce "batches" of spin and gos for respective levels - similar to how scratch cards can be made and distributed. In this regard, variance is a mitigated issue if their net gain is pre determined after a set interval.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Originally posted by lynius
      However, it would be interesting to consider that they may produce "batches" of spin and gos for respective levels - similar to how scratch cards can be made and distributed. In this regard, variance is a mitigated issue if their net gain is pre determined after a set interval.
      So if they do batches of 100K spins, then their exposure is limited.

      Good thinking...,
      VS
    • tonypmm
      tonypmm
      Silver
      Joined: 11.01.2009 Posts: 3,853
      IPoker (Ladbrokes in particular) write explicitly that they do produce Twister prizes in batches of 20K games. I don't know if it's the case for Stars, that would be interesting to learn.
    • paulie2sups
      paulie2sups
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2010 Posts: 13
      ya they make so much money they should rename them sit & pissurmoneyuponawll
    • Jan217
      Jan217
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      If they really are made in small batches then it wouldn't be hard to write software that keeps track of the prizepool for every game that fires and can calculate when the prizepool is actually more than 3$ on average....
    • tonypmm
      tonypmm
      Silver
      Joined: 11.01.2009 Posts: 3,853
      It can't be written this way because others' games aren't shown in the lobby (and the batch is global).

      But as 3600x Spingos are listed in the lobby, it would be possible to assess the conditional probability of hitting a 3600x in your game by comparing the times of past hits (if they're too close to each other in time, they can't be in the same batch). So I don't believe Stars release them in batches, they must be drawing the prize for each game independently.

      On iPoker, winners of 1000x Twisters aren't listed in the lobby (€5K-10K winners might be listed by an individual room with a delay, but some don't do it at all), hence you can't determine how far you are from the end of the current batch and whether a 1000x has already appeared in it; so your best guess is that it will hit in your game 1 time out of 20000 (unless you've hit two back-to-back 1000x's yourself and are now considering going for the 3rd, which is -EV to do just after shipping the 2nd one).
    • unetonne
      unetonne
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 2
      Interresting tho i stopped playing those
    • mendiolacubicle
      mendiolacubicle
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.11.2010 Posts: 11
      The chance of getting a bigger prize is small, perhaps they are making money out of those chances that we don't get the bigger prizes. 😊
    • JHTAN
      JHTAN
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.07.2010 Posts: 1,331
      Hello guys,

      Do you think "Spin and Gos" and "Twister" is a profitable game?

      Thanks.
    • hoagy
      hoagy
      Silver
      Joined: 21.10.2014 Posts: 81
      Hi jhtan

      Its hard to say if they are a profitable game but mathematically they can be. Variance is huge and strict BRM and volume essential. There is a very interesting thread here by RW666, his opening bankroll was $50 in October he now has $800

      Super Agressive One

      The rake varies depending on the buy in, calculations over 300000 it works out like this for spin n go:

      $1 7%
      $3 $7 6%
      $15 $30 5%

      Therefore to breakeven you need winrates respectively of 35.9% 35.5% and 35.1%

      Twister is similar EG:

      For twister prize-pool structure of a $10 buy-in you contest (when all is considered) an average pay-out of $28 about 6.6% house rake.
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