just checking some math basics

    • srna10
      srna10
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.12.2010 Posts: 346
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $12.18 (121.8 bb)
      BB: $9.08 (90.8 bb)
      UTG+1: $14 (140 bb)
      UTG+2: $18.81 (188.1 bb)
      MP1: $8.95 (89.5 bb)
      MP2: $20.70 (207 bb)
      MP3: $28.90 (289 bb)
      Hero (CO): $13.36 (133.6 bb)
      BTN: $10.27 (102.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 5 6
      UTG+1 raises to $0.35, 4 folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, BB calls $0.90, UTG+1 calls $0.65

      Flop: ($3.05) 5 7 4 (3 players)
      BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.45, BB raises to $8.08 and is all-in, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $6.63

      Turn: ($19.21) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($19.21) K (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      $19.21 pot ($0.86 rake)
      Final Board: 5 7 4 Q K
      BB showed A A and won $18.35 ($9.27 net)
      UTG+1 mucked and lost (-$1 net)
      Hero mucked 5 6 and lost (-$9.08 net)


      So this will be both mathematical and theory question.

      On the flop I decided to bet bcs I have at most 15 outs and i think it was good decision, only doubt that bet was too small, maybe I could bet bigger considering that there were two players in EP. When BB x/r and shove OTF i started to recount my outs and made decision to call his shove.

      So, if my math isn't wrong I need around 35% equity to call, which I have against his range. I put sets and premiums in his range and calculate that I have almost 40%, so my question is: was this good call considering that I will flip against his range almost every time bcs I won't get any FE from villain?

      Long term I think this is fold but what says advanced math? :f_confused:
  • 5 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,915
      Hi, srna10,
      Intriguing spot.

      BB cold calls a 3Bet -- what range does he have?
      To me it is PP or big pairs

      In your words, "sets or premiums in his range"

      So that gives:

      Board: 5:club: 7:spade: 4:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BB     57.21%  56.00%   1.22% { QQ+, 77, 55-44 }
      CO     42.79%  41.57%   1.22% { 6s5s }


      On the flop, the pot starts at $3.05, you bump it to $4.45, and BB adds $6.63 to make it 11.08. (I just include the amount that covers you).

      So you need to risk 6.63 to win 11.08 or pot odds of 1.67:1
      I see 8 outs -- 4 3s and 4 8s you also have a BD flush draw

      If you have a look at http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/others/2279/1/ and find the Poker Odds Chart.
      The OESD gives you odds by the river of 2:1 against, but you're only getting 1.7:1
      I don't think the backdoor FD adds enough to make the call worthwhile.

      What am I missing?

      Another way to look at this:
      You have 43% equity, but to get it you have to put up more than 50% of the pot.

      One last thought -- I'm rarely 3Betting suited connectors vs UTG from CO -- did you have reads?

      Best of luck,
      VS

    • srna10
      srna10
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.12.2010 Posts: 346
      Hi Vorpal and thanks for your reply.

      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      So you need to risk 6.63 to win 11.08 or pot odds of 1.67:1
      I see 8 outs -- 4 3s and 4 8s you also have a BD flush draw

      The OESD gives you odds by the river of 2:1 against, but you're only getting 1.7:1
      I don't think the backdoor FD adds enough to make the call worthwhile.
      Yes, that's right but it's really close to call especially with such equity (40%).

      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      Another way to look at this:
      You have 43% equity, but to get it you have to put up more than 50% of the pot.
      That's also true but I think that we need to look at villain FE. If I'm not wrong against his presumed range (QQ+, 77, 55-44) I have around 40% or 1.5:1 odds but, again but, with his FE=0 think this is -EV cause e.g. in 5 draws I'll win 2 and lost 3. So, if that hand was played differently and had some of his FE then I think it will be +EV.

      Correct me if I'm wrong.

      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      One last thought -- I'm rarely 3Betting suited connectors vs UTG from CO -- did you have reads?

      Best of luck,
      VS

      Yeah, I don't have any reads of both BB (2 hands) and UTG (50 hands) but 56s is bottom of my 3bet bluff range in LP.


    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,915
      Hi, srna10,
      How much bluff do you think villain has in his range?

      Once BB gets it in, we can only look at our pot odds.
      In order to make this worthwhile, we need to be reasonably sure villain has some bluff capability.

      So...
      We enter the pot with the bottom of our range.
      We get check/raised with a draw to a one-card straight.

      There has to be a time to just toss the cards in and use our resources in a better spot.

      This seems like one of those times.

      Best of luck,
      VS
    • srna10
      srna10
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.12.2010 Posts: 346
      Hi Vorpal,

      I agree with you that was poor call and the best line would be to fold and move on.

      Thanks mate for your help and good luck at tables.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Preflop readless imo too loose, you have plenty of better hands to bluff with (if you need to bluff at all at Nl10 vs tight range)

      For me actually it looks like a snap call on flop :) I really wouldnt think a second. You put him on sets, strong overpairs, but I dont. I put such flop shoves on draws, and since on such board there are not many draws, then also on overcards like AQ+. He is fish, he can have actually many 8x, 6x, 3x hands here. The reason why I would greatly discard strong combos is that it just doesnt make sense to check shove strong hand on so dry board.
      Sometimes fish make plays like this which doesnt make sense, but still it is very rarely (at least I see almost allways bluff when fish shoves in such spot)