[NL2-NL10] NL100 AKs donkbet

    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Known players:

      0,5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.62 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A:heart: , K:heart:
      UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls $1,00, 4 folds, Hero raises to $5,00, 2 folds, UTG2 calls $4,00.

      Flop: ($11,50) Q:diamond: , 9:heart: , J:club: (2 players)
      UTG2 raises $52,68 (All-In), Hero raises to $11,93 (All-In).

      Elephant doesnt diplay the stats of this guy ''Jhr_gert'' because of the underscore... >.< nevertheless he played like 32/5 preflop as a complete loose passive guy.
      =33.7% - 2% bluffequity if I can substract this due his fish action = 31.7% equity needed.

      Okay to shove it with 2 overcards + gutshot? I see myself with 8 or 9 outs at most.
  • 6 replies
    • davidangel
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      I like your shove, not sure why, but I like it.
      Why would he donk the nuts oop into the pfa on a rainbow board? He likely has a pair plus draw and is value/protection betting, or just bluffing a shortstack on a scary board.
      outs then 3A+BDFD+4T = 8 for 2:1 hand odds
      and your pot odds are 1.96:1
      So your play is -EV, however, with stats and reads you can push as it is very marginal. Vs 2p, trips or str8 you are in deep kaka, a more conservative player would fold. I would push, but I'm crazy like that.
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      I think you probably have a decent draw against him(7-10 outs), so with your pot odds should be around breakeven situation, but you said he's a loose passive guy... ...and when passive opponents start playing aggressively I tend to fold rather than push.

      P.S.: Or you call and make a note. ;)
    • allizdoR
      Joined: 02.01.2007 Posts: 4,568
      when he is passiv, i would fould.

      against a normal or agressive player you can call, you have maybe 2 overcards, 1 bdfd, 1 gutshoot and he could also have a straightdraw.

      This AI is mostly no Monster Hand like a Set.
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by allizdoR
      This AI is mostly no Monster Hand like a Set.
      I suspect TopPair/Mediumpair or Tx, or what do you think he might have?
      Deuces would also be a crazy option
    • ysessa
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      i like your call here, backdoor flush gutshot 2 overs ;-) maybe he pushs an oesd
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by ysessa
      maybe he pushs an oesd
      how did you know xD ?