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THe odds on this...

    • jurgizzzzz
      jurgizzzzz
      Basic
      Joined: 21.03.2010 Posts: 12
      These are 3 hands in a row on a tourney in stars just now. Odds of this happening?:f_biggrin:

      PokerStars - $1+$0.10|25/50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      SB: 201.14 BB (VPIP: 54.55, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
      BB: 61.6 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
      UTG: 39.14 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
      UTG+1: 128 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
      MP: 137.82 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
      MP+1: 66.5 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
      Hero (MP+2): 52.2 BB
      CO: 45.68 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
      BTN: 56.78 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: A:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 3.5 BB, BB calls 3 BB

      Flop: (12 BB, 3 players) 9:heart: 3:diamond: 9:club:
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, fold, fold

      Hero wins 12 BB


      PokerStars - $1+$0.10|25/50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 197.14 BB (VPIP: 58.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
      SB: 57.6 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
      BB: 39.14 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
      UTG: 128 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
      UTG+1: 137.82 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
      MP: 66.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
      Hero (MP+1): 60.2 BB
      MP+2: 45.68 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
      CO: 56.78 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:heart: K:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 8 BB, SB calls 7.5 BB, fold

      Flop: (25 BB, 3 players) 7:heart: 2:diamond: 5:heart:
      SB bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 52.2 BB and is all-in, fold, fold

      Hero wins 31 BB

      PokerStars - $1+$0.10|25/50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      CO: 189.14 BB (VPIP: 61.54, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
      BTN: 46.6 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
      SB: 38.14 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
      BB: 128 BB (VPIP: 7.69, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
      UTG: 137.82 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
      UTG+1: 66.5 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
      Hero (MP): 80.2 BB
      MP+1: 45.68 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
      MP+2: 56.78 BB (VPIP: 7.69, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:club: A:heart:

      UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 12 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 10 BB

      Flop: (37.5 BB, 3 players) Q:club: 2:club: J:spade:
      UTG checks, Hero bets 68.2 BB and is all-in, CO calls 68.2 BB, UTG raises to 125.82 BB and is all-in, CO calls 57.62 BB

      Turn: (357.34 BB, 3 players) 6:diamond:

      River: (357.34 BB, 3 players) 4:diamond:

      UTG shows Q:diamond: J:diamond: (Two Pair, Queens and Jacks)

      Main Pot [242.1 BB]: (Pre 14%, Flop 47%, Turn 62%)
      Side Pot#1 [115.24 BB]: (Pre 67%, Flop 70%, Turn 82%)

      CO shows 9:diamond: T:diamond: (High Card, Queen)

      Main Pot [242.1 BB]: (Pre 14%, Flop 28%, Turn 19%)
      Side Pot#1 [115.24 BB]: (Pre 33%, Flop 30%, Turn 18%)

      Hero shows A:club: A:heart: (One Pair, Aces)

      Main Pot [242.1 BB]: (Pre 73%, Flop 25%, Turn 19%)

      UTG wins 357.34 BB
  • 6 replies
    • Cardbender
      Cardbender
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 1,076
      I would'nt worry about the odds here, it's typical. When your playing fish variance will bite you in the a55.

      QJs is a typical hand someone will want to see a flop... it would have been funny if the strait chaser hit on the river. ;)

      Just move on an hope you can get to the finish line next time.

      gl
    • jurgizzzzz
      jurgizzzzz
      Basic
      Joined: 21.03.2010 Posts: 12
      I am not worried about the variance here I know QJ was standart I was unlucky I couldn't get the board paired :f_drink: I was just saying that getting these 3 hands in a row on the same tourney are fing unbelievable this happend 3 times in a row I mean thats pretty much impossible , just thinking what the odds of this happening are, if anybody could post the odds I would apreciate it cheers :)
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,528
      I once had AA three times in succession.
      I can't remember whether I won or lost with any of them.

      The table broke up shortly after -- there is no competing with luck.

      Of AA Doyle Brunson (I think) said, "You win small pots and lose big ones"

      Cheers,
      VS
    • badgerer
      badgerer
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2010 Posts: 555
      i was also once dealt rockets three times in a row, it was heads up in a 6max hyper, and i got all in pre all three times and held. i felt like i could hear the faint sound of a distant mouse shattering into pieces on the wind. happy days!
    • MasochisticDesire
      MasochisticDesire
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2010 Posts: 487
      It has been a long while since I was at school but I reckon the math goes something like this:

      Odds of being dealt a specific pair -
      (4/52)*(3/51) = 12/2652 = 1/221 = 0.45%

      so the chances of being dealt a specific pair 3 hands in a row would be -
      (1/221)*(1/221)*(1/221) = 1/10,793,861
      or
      0.000009%

      So the odds of being dealt AA, KK, AA three hands in a row would be:
      one in ten million seven hundred and ninety three thousand eight hundred and sixty one ;)

      That is a big number! (Bear in mind that the probability of being dealt 3 random pairs in a row is significantly lower.)
      Sorry for sending you all :f_zZz:
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,528
      Given that the odds of winning a standard "pick 6 from 49 numbers" lottery is 1:13,983,816 and given that I've had AA three times in a row, I suppose that there is hope for me yet :profit:

      We have another lottery here where you pick 7 numbers from a pool of 49. The odds there are 1:28,633,528.

      I don't enter often. Each $5 ticket gives you 3 sets of numbers.
      In the last 8 draws I've entered, I have won 5 times. Not the big prize of course :s_cry: , free plays only, however 3 of those times I won two free plays on the same ticket.

      The important thing to remember is this:
      No matter how wild the odds against something might be, if it can happen eventually it will happen.
      Or not :coolface:

      Fun stuff to think about...
      :profit: VS