87s vs UTG raise what do you think to this play is it exploiting

    • CustardKid
      CustardKid
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.05.2014 Posts: 171
      UTG 100bb 25 vpip 18 pfr
      MP1 100bb
      CO 100bb
      BTN 100bb (hero)
      SB 100bb
      BB 100bb

      hero is btn with 8c7c
      utg raises 3 bb, 2 fold, hero calls, 2 fold.

      flop(9bb) 2h 7s Kc

      utg bets 6bb, hero raises 15bb

      my thought here is villains range here is somewhat like 55-AA 76s-KQs KQ KJs AK

      6 combos of sets that will shove

      39 combos of pairs that will fold
      28 combos of suited connectors that will fold
      12 combos of KQ that will fold (assumption)
      4 combos of KJs that will fold (assumption)
      83 total combos that fold

      3 combos of pairs that will call (its possible to get these to fold to)
      12 combos of AK that will call (its possible to get these to fold to)
      15 combos that might call

      83+15=98
      83 is roughly 84% of the villians hand range that will fold we only need to make villain fold 1 out of 2 to break even, im not 100% sure about this but does that give us 84% fold equity?? if so then this play is much better then calling the flop since we will take down 84% of the time and not to mention we still have 24% equity in the pot vs villains calling range and most likely 2 free cards if villain calls, if he shoves we can still fold.

      I didn't even include AJ AQ so we have even more fold equity

      is this correct i would like to start thinking about adding combos and fold equity to my game. is this the correct way to do it?

      thanks
  • 11 replies
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      fold pre
    • MasochisticDesire
      MasochisticDesire
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2010 Posts: 486
      Hi CustardKid,

      I have to say that I think you are massively overestimating the combos in villains range that you will make fold on such a dry board. I cannot imagine I would fold any Kx, TT-QQ a lot of the time AQ,AJ,AT w backdoor draws. What exactly would you be trying to rep here (hypothetical situation I assume) beyond the weak holding you have and other small/mid pairs? I think raising villains flop Cbet doesn't rep value (as I think it would be better to call with such hands) and is actually more suggestive of weakness.

      I don't think you ever have 84% fold equity in spots like this. That said, as an exercise in how to make range orientated decisions, I think you are on the right track simply using a poor example.

      MD
    • CustardKid
      CustardKid
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.05.2014 Posts: 171
      Hey MD,

      I haven't played this hand, I was just thinking ways to implement this into my game and came up with this example hand, I wont try putting this into my game until I learn a bit more theory behind it and I would be extremely selective to the opponent I do this too, I would be repping a set obviously the player would have to be able to fold.

      this is based on a 6max table so I think them UTG ranges should be accurate.

      also I was just wondering is that a good way of estimating your fold equity, i haven't come across working out your fold equity yet in the strategy section.

      Dont we only need 30% fold equity to make a profit here since we still have 24% equity in the pot?

      Thanks
      CK
    • MasochisticDesire
      MasochisticDesire
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2010 Posts: 486
      Sure, ranges may be accurate but you still rep very small value range by raising such a flop and so will have very little fold equity. You say you would be repping a set but a set wouldn't raise that flop. The logic appears flawed in my opinion.

      I would be interested to see if one of the hand judges or more advanced players think that they ever have a raising range in such spots. My inclination is that if you were raising your sets (not optimum imo) then you would have to raise some air to balance. This doesn't include many hands that aren't Ax or hit the board as you have cold-called UTG pre-flop and A high has some value here and arguably would also be better flatting the flop Cbet.

      But again -

      ...as an exercise in how to make range orientated decisions, I think you are on the right track, simply using a poor example.
      MD
    • MasochisticDesire
      MasochisticDesire
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2010 Posts: 486
      ps - thread title says 89s but example is 78s.
    • CustardKid
      CustardKid
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.05.2014 Posts: 171
      Hey MD,
      Yeah you are totally right flatting would be the best line since all bluffs would fold and only better hands would call it is a bad example but the topic I was aiming at was more like combos and fold equity to be honest I think that is more advanced and I'm thinking too far ahead I'm going to leave this out of my game for now and focus on the bigger leaks in my game.

      Sorry about the 89s topic, the hand was an example that I made up in my head lol

      Ck
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 27,080
      Originally posted by MasochisticDesire
      ps - thread title says 89s but example is 78s.
      Fixed:f_cool:
    • VaskataBuci
      VaskataBuci
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2011 Posts: 2,245
      55+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo

      Probably something like this. You could use Equilab to assign ranges to your opponent. What in this example you think has the most EV?
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      Call the flop.
      Raising doesn't make him fold any better hand. (If you think he folds KQ to a flop raise, you can call any two cards preflop and then raise every cbet and show a massive profit.)
      Raising flop also doesn't make him call any worse hands.
      It's just a really silly raise.

      It's still not that bad, because you get protection, and he never 3bets the flop, but fundamentally it's not a raise you wanna have the habit of making.
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      Originally posted by lnternet
      Call the flop.
      Raising doesn't make him fold any better hand. (If you think he folds KQ to a flop raise, you can call any two cards preflop and then raise every cbet and show a massive profit.)
      Raising flop also doesn't make him call any worse hands.
      It's just a really silly raise.
      Assume hero wants a raising range. And he wants to raise half his sets, so about 3 combos. He'll want about 9 combos of bluffs.
      89s and QJs with bdfd's make ok bluffs. After that? What is better than 78s? Perhaps some PP's below 77's achieve a similar thing as 78s, but they don't block villains 77.
      Is it relevant that we don't get a better hand to fold? As long as we are 'bluffing or semi-bluffing enough so that we get paid with our value hands?

      He may not fold a better hand on the flop. But he will when barrelled on the turn (which should probably happen about half the time). That combined with the equity denied of his flop b/f range make this a better bluff than something like T9s?

      It's still not that bad, because you get protection, and he never 3bets the flop, but fundamentally it's not a raise you wanna have the habit of making.
      On a dry board such as this, fundamentally it's no big deal whether raised or not. But on a wetter board, I'd argue that fundamentally it's a raise that should be habitual.

      Raising some weaker made hands such as this also prevent villain from receiving free EV when he floats the flop raise with showdown value hands that beat heros pure bluffs, but are behind yet have nut equity against heros value raises. So without these weak made hands in ones raising range, villains can float flop raises (and turn barrels) wider and more profitably.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Originally posted by jules97
      Originally posted by lnternet
      Call the flop.
      Raising doesn't make him fold any better hand. (If you think he folds KQ to a flop raise, you can call any two cards preflop and then raise every cbet and show a massive profit.)
      Raising flop also doesn't make him call any worse hands.
      It's just a really silly raise.
      Assume hero wants a raising range. And he wants to raise half his sets, so about 3 combos. He'll want about 9 combos of bluffs.
      89s and QJs with bdfd's make ok bluffs. After that? What is better than 78s? Perhaps some PP's below 77's achieve a similar thing as 78s, but they don't block villains 77.
      Is it relevant that we don't get a better hand to fold? As long as we are 'bluffing or semi-bluffing enough so that we get paid with our value hands?

      He may not fold a better hand on the flop. But he will when barrelled on the turn (which should probably happen about half the time). That combined with the equity denied of his flop b/f range make this a better bluff than something like T9s?

      It's still not that bad, because you get protection, and he never 3bets the flop, but fundamentally it's not a raise you wanna have the habit of making.
      On a dry board such as this, fundamentally it's no big deal whether raised or not. But on a wetter board, I'd argue that fundamentally it's a raise that should be habitual.

      Raising some weaker made hands such as this also prevent villain from receiving free EV when he floats the flop raise with showdown value hands that beat heros pure bluffs, but are behind yet have nut equity against heros value raises. So without these weak made hands in ones raising range, villains can float flop raises (and turn barrels) wider and more profitably.
      I think you made mistake by saying 9 bluffs for 3 value, it should be 6 bluffs considering that bluffs have low equity. So with that you dont have problem adding more bluffs :)

      I also think that it is not important at all if we dont fold better hand and villian doesnt call weaker, all it should matter is that we play our range max
      EV.

      And it should be obvious that raising 78s is +EV, since villian will defend vs raise in a way to make our low equity hands indifferent, so having nice equity ensures +EV. It is just the question if calling EV is higher than raising, it is impossible to calculate it, so we can imo just logically purely assume which line is max EV. I dont even have a clue here, which one is higher, there are arguments for both.

      Internet (coach), can you please explain your logic in more details why do you think that call EV is max (beside what you already said about folding only worse hands).