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[NL20-NL50] NL50SH: standard flop all-in with QQ?

    • Kruppe
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,145
      seems very standard to me, but it looks like i shouldn'T get called by worse hands.

      Known players:

      0,25/0,5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.58 by

      Preflop: Hero is BU with Q:heart: , Q:diamond:
      2 folds, CO raises to $2,00, Hero raises to $6,50, 2 folds, CO calls $4,50.

      Flop: ($13,75) 5:diamond: , J:spade: , T:club: (2 players)
      CO bets $7,00, Hero raises to $46,00 (All-In), CO calls $19,45, Hero gets uncalled bet back..

      Turn: ($66,65) 9:diamond:
      River: ($66,65) 2:diamond:

      Final Pot: $66,65
  • 4 replies
    • Grimzor
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 421
      Spent like 10 minutes figuring what would be best here.. Didnt figure it out yet so i am really interested what coaches will say.

      Thing is that there are no flush draw and you block straight draws. Dont think he makes this bet with air so i put him on at least 1 pair. He is likely to have set or overpair. Only 19 hands on him - but in those he has shown tendency to be passive. 19 are really not enough tho. And his middle stack to mix it up even more.

      I really dont know ... really ... But i would be more inclined to call flop, call his shove or shove myself this turn. Problem is if turn is A, K or some crap that helps noone and he shoves. I would be inclined to fold then (but his remaining stack and my hand would make it a hard thing to do)
    • csnmf
      Joined: 22.11.2006 Posts: 444
      With villain's stack i always go broke here. I don't think many people will donk here with a set usually wil go for the check raise. I think i saw a video on here that donk bets in 3bet pots are usually weak hands so in this case maybe an AJ. This guy is an unknown anyway, 19 hands is too small of a sample.
    • texbball33
      Joined: 20.05.2008 Posts: 67
      I would go broke here too, after his donk on the flop he has less than the pot left in his stack. If you're not going to shove this flop then your preflop 3 bet was turning your hand into a bluff, this was a value 3 bet and should be a value shove. There's no A, K or flush draw on the board and like Grimzor said the str8 draw is blocked by your Q's. Push... I don't think you want to see too many turn cards and then have to make your decision, do it while you have the highest FE and highest probability of being ahead.

      Also, why would he donk that big into you with a big hand? If he wants to get his money in he'd c/r, if he's scared and weak he'd donk... or maybe he's just staring at his cards and not thinking ahead...

      You push ~$19 to win ~$20.75 (13.75 pot + 7 donk bet) when he folds, and win ~47 (13.75 pot + 7 donk + his ~19 call) when he calls. Even if your fold equity is 0 you still only need 40% equity (19/47) to break even.

      Here's an equity approx...

      Board: Js Tc 5d

      Equity Hand
      Player 1: 57.282 % QhQd
      Player 2: 42.718 % 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+

      At 40% Equity every $1 you bet you get back $1, so at 57% equity every $1 you bet you get back $1.42.

      This range is maybe a little loose, but it's probably close. If you assume he 4 bets AA and KK and doesn't call with KQ, AT, or 88, then it looks like this:

      Board: Js Tc 5d

      Equity Hand
      Player 1: 64.894 % QhQd
      Player 2: 35.106 % 99-QQ, AJs+, AQo+

      From this I think you can clearly push.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Easy shove on the flop.