[Highlights]AJs IP on ssx board

    • contadocenas
      contadocenas
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2010 Posts: 254
      Poker Stars, $6.37 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: 1,755 (17.6 bb)
      BB: 1,418 (14.2 bb)
      MP1: 4,271 (42.7 bb)
      MP2: 1,375 (13.8 bb)
      MP3: 1,770 (17.7 bb)
      Hero (CO): 2,148 (21.5 bb)
      BTN: 763 (7.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A J
      2 folds, MP3 raises to 200, Hero calls 200, 3 folds

      Flop: (550) 5 T 9 (2 players)
      MP3 bets 275, Hero calls 275

      Turn: (1,100) 9 (2 players)
      MP3 bets 1,295 and is all-in, Hero calls 1,295

      River: (3,690) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Villain is 18/8 over 53 hands
      AF 3.5
  • 6 replies
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Hi all! I decided to give this hand more in-depth analysis since it caught good attention and I believe it's covers an interesting and important spot.
      Originally posted by contadocenas
      Poker Stars, $6.37 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: 1,755 (17.6 bb)
      BB: 1,418 (14.2 bb)
      MP1: 4,271 (42.7 bb)
      MP2: 1,375 (13.8 bb)
      MP3: 1,770 (17.7 bb)
      Hero (CO): 2,148 (21.5 bb)
      BTN: 763 (7.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A J
      2 folds, MP3 raises to 200, Hero calls 200, 3 folds

      Flop: (550) 5 T 9 (2 players)
      MP3 bets 275, Hero calls 275

      Turn: (1,100) 9 (2 players)
      MP3 bets 1,295 and is all-in, Hero calls 1,295

      River: (3,690) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Villain is 18/8 over 53 hands
      AF 3.5
      So let's start by going through preflop play. There a few factors that will play a big role into forming ranges, so here we go:

      -villain seems fairly on the tight side, especially his PFR

      -his position also indicates he's not going too crazy, being sitted in MP3, I will not give him a wide range at all

      -given how shallow the rest of the table is and there are many re-shove stacks behind us(check BTN's stack), that will narrow his range even more towards pure value(raise/call hands) and less with semi-bluffs(middling suited hands), since hands like 87s, 97s, 86s, will see flops less often thus lower possibility for them to realize equity. We also don't have 3 streets of play here, which again benefits more made hands than middling hands.

      Which....leads us to good point :P



      Speaking of which, here goes the numbers:

      PREFLOP equity:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 47.54% 43.59% 3.95% 66+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KJo+
      MP3 52.46% 48.51% 3.95% AsJs


      As you see-we give MP2 a fairly wide range, I extended the number of PP I assume he would normally open in this spot(since he can def. m/r call the BTN with them), but I cut a big portion of his offsuited broadway and his middling hands for the reasons mentioned above. All in all, I still believe I am very generous with his range and it could certainly be tighter. Even like this-you see clearly that a 3bet ship will be bad.
      There is other things to consider here, of course, besides pure equity and that is fold equity if we shove, ICM tax, other player's overcalling ranges, however, no matter how you play with it, AJs ranges from BE to clearly bad 3bet shove. Not a spot I wanna be in this deep on a soft table.

      And given the equity we have vs MP2's range, that's why I said that even flatting here might not be great.

      We go POSTFLOP:

      FLOP PLAY:
      Board:
      5hTs9s

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 43.33% 40.86% 2.47% 66+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KJo+
      MP3 56.67% 54.20% 2.47% AsJs

      Which actually looks decent, doesn't it? But there is one very important thing I want to mention here: That is pure equity range vs range. He is not cbet/stacking off with his entire range here. So we never get to play with this high equity if we shove. Also-ICM tax will result into taking a few extra % from our equity, since his stack is quite large compared to hours. Also, given he is likely to check some of his middling holdings-such as weak pairs, Ax with overs, it makes a 2bet shove less and less temping. We have position as well, which despite being short, will still help us out somehow.

      TURN PLAY:

      Board run out is : 5hTs9s9h

      Defining his range is gonna be the fun part. I assume, he stacks off with top pair, 9x , overpair, FDs and TT,99(since we are quite short and with just 1 ps bet left, I assume he will be shoving those for value as well as opposed to cbetting half pot or less). It could vary a bit of course, f.e. he will not always ship the turn with 99/TT, but then again-he might also pot control JT on the turn.

      Here's our equity against that range:

      MP2 72.06% 71.49% 0.57% 99+, A9s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, ATo-A9o, KTo, QTo, JTo
      MP3 27.94% 27.37% 0.57% AsJs

      As you can clearly see, we don't even get to call if we were chip EV, but not ICM EV. Given that ICM is a factor here, we should give ourselves even higher equity to make a profitable call. There are a few things that were missed in the analysis and that is villain's cbetting range and how we perform vs his cbet/call range. For simplicity reasons I decided to not put too much weight on this as it won't change our analysis too much at all. All it could do is reduce his middling strength hands and make his flop cbet range more polarized. Which again makes us want to flat the flop cbet, because his value range does really good vs our semi-bluffing hand. Also-we have position and strong SD value.

      So all in all, I think I call preflop in game as well. Postflop, I really believe calling flop/folding turn is superior.

      Cheers!
    • contadocenas
      contadocenas
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2010 Posts: 254
      I dont know what are his stats since my HUD is filtered to players left. Therefore, his stats is going to be for the EG, where most players are more tight than on this spot.

      Dont you think it is at least better to 3bet pf?

      I call since I expect him to have some semi bluffs which I am head, like QJ and KhJh+ (of hearts) and KsQs.
    • contadocenas
      contadocenas
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2010 Posts: 254
      kurrkabin sorry for upset you. But give give your thougts regarding 3bet this hand pf pls.

      Thanks in advance!

      PS. I dont know where the button to ask the juge to review the had gone :f_confused:
    • munkey7
      munkey7
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.09.2011 Posts: 190
      what about just shipping your AJs pre?
    • contadocenas
      contadocenas
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2010 Posts: 254
      Originally posted by kurrkabin
      he is tight and he's opening from the Mp3 with many re-shove sacks. His range is nutted. FWIW, you can even think of folding this hand preflop vs this guy.
      We can make an Exploitative as kurrkabin with the read he his nit on this spot. However I am not such fan of it, since my HUD is filtered for EG on this spot and usually he is tigher when he is deep. I think it is a close spot and since I didn't want to fold I took the low variance option, which I dont know if it is the best one since we dont get such good implied odds.
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      We can 3bet AJs only if we think it's the best option. Otherwise, we should just fold or flat. I don't see many worse hands raise/calling here. We are flipping vs pairs and we are not in great shape vs his Ax hands. I think I prefer to flat than 3bet ship, especially given we have position.