postdraw question 5CD

    • Karl1977
      Karl1977
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.08.2014 Posts: 10
      Hi,

      I have a question about a postdraw example in the articles on 5CD on this site where I disagree with the analysis.
      Let me quote the example I am referring to:

      "EXAMPLE 1:
      You have been dealt 4433X in Cut Off and you are first in to make to make it $4 in a $2/$4 game. A player in bb calls and the pot is $9. The bb-player discards 3 and you naturally discard 1 and you do not improve. The
      BB player now checks and it is up to you.

      Suggestions:
      You hold small two pair. You started from Cut Off which is a position that normally should hold for something along JJ or better. You do not know a lot about your opponent. It could be a notorious defender or it could be a player who calls with a strong pair. However, your hand should be fine, given that he has checked to you (and there is only you and him in the pot).
      I would like, as a general recommendation, to go ahead and bet here. You could get paid if he wants to play hero and calls. If he folds, then you will have had the benefit of not showing your hand (the strength, this time). This is very important and therefore even if he does not call, you will have made a correct play. You will also make sure that if you enter a pot you are going to put your opponent to a decision in the next round. It is very important to be consequent in that because if a good player notice that you are checking too much behind in the post round – he will exploit that by betting into you more often."


      I'm only a beginning 5CD player with a few months of experience in this game
      But I disagree you should bet out in this situation
      True, his check indicates he did not improve after drawing 3 cards
      But normally you value bet because you think you can get called by a lesser hand
      In this case, with 4433, unless you have notes that he calls off with an unimproved pair (in this example you don't know),
      you will only get called if he improved to trips or a better two pair than yours.
      I am probably wrong though
      Any thoughts on this?

      On a side note, even 0.25/0.50 is tough nowadays, often you seem to only get a play (instead of picking up the blinds) when
      they hold at least AA, AAXX or trips. :)
  • 4 replies
    • bigpooch
      bigpooch
      Basic
      Joined: 16.01.2012 Posts: 44
      The normal/standard play is actually to bet, because from game theory, the BB needs to call+ ( includes legitimate checkraises ) with a frequency of f ~ 9(0.97)/(4+9(0.97)) ~ 0.68578162. Recall that the probability of improving a pair is p ~ 4656/16215 ( ignoring cards in the other hand(s)) ~ 0.28714154 which is strictly less than half of f; thus, if the BB is playing unexploitably, he should call with an unimproved pair about 55.921351% of the time; however, in practice, many typical players in the BB won't call unimproved even 40% of the time and against such players, betting two pairs with no chance of beating some two pairs the BB could make will be a bet with negative expectation.

      Leaving the theoretical aspects aside, if you have a wide semibluffing range or are sometimes playing exploitively, some of your opponents will pick up on that and will have an excuse to call you. From the cutoff, many aggressive/good players will raise a lot of flush draws and hands like AKQ(J/T)x and AJT98, and some will even draw one to a pair ( not necessarily recommended! ), so the BB should normally pay off with AA or KK ( because his proper defending range of one pair hands will include JJ and sometimes TT ). OTOH, if the cutoff is perceived to have a tight image or not bluff much or have a narrow semibluffing range, then it makes sense that the cutoff not try to extract value with two small pairs against a typical BB; still, an exception would be if the BB is a calling station, so even though your semibluffs from any position may have been reduced because of who is in the BB, you can still bet any two pairs for value.

      At the low limits, it sometimes does make sense against tight opposition in the BB to play a super fast approach: to have a wide semibluffing range and to have it is wide as reasonable, the cutoff ought to bet not just any two pairs, but any A-high flush draw or AKQ(J/T)x that happened to just pair on aces.

      On balance, if you want to know what the BB defends with, you could check; if you want to test out the BB to see if he will call you ( maybe unimproved ), you should bet; thus, it depends on the information you want. Also, the other players at the table will notice if you check two small pairs. Although checking is not the most testing play, it's not necessarily related to whether the cutoff will be exploitable by the BB's bets in this situation in the future.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Originally posted by Karl1977
      On a side note, even 0.25/0.50 is tough nowadays, often you seem to only get a play (instead of picking up the blinds) when
      they hold at least AA, AAXX or trips. :)
      Hi, Karl1977,
      I think that your observation is correct -- but the only way to counteract that is to open the throttle, and pick up the hands when they don't have AAxxx+

      On the two-pair hand.
      I think bet/fold is the way to go.
      Unimproved AA will call often enough to value bet this -- but only if you have shown some open-raised draws.

      Originally posted by bigpooch
      Also, the other players at the table will notice if you check two small pairs. Although checking is not the most testing play, it's not necessarily related to whether the cutoff will be exploitable by the BB's bets in this situation in the future.
      Assuming he was not drawing 3 to a flush or a straight, he has a pair pre. There is a less-than-even chance he improved.
      In this case, it is unlikely he improved to worse, but it is at least possible.
      By checking, you deny him the opportunity to make a mistake (calling with worse, or folding better)

      I think I leave a lot of money on the table checking these behind.

      Then again, I lose a lot when I forget the fold part of bet/fold.

      <sigh>
      VS
    • Karl1977
      Karl1977
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.08.2014 Posts: 10
      Thanks Bigpooch and Vorpal for your replies and your help!

      Vorpal btw I saw in another post that you use a HUD for 5CD ? However it says it doesn't work for 5CD but you seem to be able to use it somehow :)
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Originally posted by Karl1977
      Thanks Bigpooch and Vorpal for your replies and your help!

      Vorpal btw I saw in another post that you use a HUD for 5CD ? However it says it doesn't work for 5CD but you seem to be able to use it somehow :)
      For 5-Card Draw I'm using fpdb.
      The HUD works, and you can review your stats (and other players' stats also), but you cannot use it to run queries like: "How did I do raising JJxxx in the CO?"

      The other 5-Card Draw capable HUD is Pokerhands.
      It does allow such queries, but it seems incapable of handling a database of over 100K hands w/o become unbearably slow, so by the time you have sufficient hands to have a meaningful sample size, the program becomes next to useless.

      <sigh>
      VS