Can someone explain this graph?

    • XandreW36
      XandreW36
      Platinum
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 197
      Hi all, this is my graph of last two days.

      Graph is two days / sessions of 7 hours (with 15 minute break every hour) of NL4 on party network.

      First day finished with over 15 buy-ins up. It was super strange when i looked over the graph to see that first 2k hands i was breakeven and than boom, 15 BI in other 2k hands.

      Today I've played other 4k hands... after the session when i looked on the graph I just couldn't belive that can happen. I've analysed hands after and there were some poorly played hands but I didn't donked/tilted away the chips. Sets over set, coolers and bad beats. I couldn't belive that after the absolutely the best session (in bb terms) in my career just a day after I could get absolutely the worst session ever.

      How is this possible can anyone tell me... I'm playing poker long enough to not belive in poker sites being rigged and stuff, but this just blows my mind...

      Btw. I'm 10+ bb/100 winner over more than 500k hands
  • 13 replies
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Can someone explain this graph:

      Standard variance :f_p:

      btw if you won 10bb/100 over 500k hands you shoulda moved up months ago :f_drink:
    • Avataren
      Avataren
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2010 Posts: 1,621
      if you are a 10bb/100 winner over 500k you should know about variance already. thats standardvariance as metza says. nothing special. Believe me ive tried worse. your lucky you are in + still basically. It can get A LOT worse.
    • mrav0jed
      mrav0jed
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2009 Posts: 2
      I agree with metza
    • Rihard4a
      Rihard4a
      Gold
      Joined: 08.09.2010 Posts: 2,038
      Just because you had a +15BI day, don't expect it to be everyday like that. It's not how poker works.
    • XandreW36
      XandreW36
      Platinum
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 197
      Yeah, standard variance. Guess I will have to go with that. Now that I played a bit with variance calculator I can see it's possible although not very likely.

      But having extreme upswing and right after that extreme downswing makes you question some things...
      Anyway, enough of me rambling and whining gotta hit those tables again.

      Thx all for the replies and maybe moderators can move this thread in bad beats/variance section as I can't seem to find it.

      Peace
    • Zanardi1
      Zanardi1
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 5,602
      I'd say, too, that is variance.

      Originally posted by XandreW36
      But having extreme upswing and right after that extreme downswing makes you question some things...
      All it tells to me is that you ran super hot then poker variance took back what wasn't your, from an equity point of view.
    • XandreW36
      XandreW36
      Platinum
      Joined: 05.09.2010 Posts: 197
      Originally posted by Zanardi1
      I'd say, too, that is variance.

      Originally posted by XandreW36
      But having extreme upswing and right after that extreme downswing makes you question some things...
      All it tells to me is that you ran super hot then poker variance took back what wasn't your, from an equity point of view.
      But it doesn't work like that. Every hand is a new hand. Past results have absolutely no impact on variance or how well you'll continue to run. Right?

      Maybe I should've bought a lottery ticket instead of grinding last two days as I feel like the probability of winning a ticket is almost the same as this swing that happened. :f_zZz:
    • Zanardi1
      Zanardi1
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 5,602
      Originally posted by XandreW36
      But it doesn't work like that.
      OK. How does it work? :)
    • Rihard4a
      Rihard4a
      Gold
      Joined: 08.09.2010 Posts: 2,038
      Originally posted by Zanardi1
      I'd say, too, that is variance.

      Originally posted by XandreW36
      But having extreme upswing and right after that extreme downswing makes you question some things...
      All it tells to me is that you ran super hot then poker variance took back what wasn't your, from an equity point of view.
      That's like the dumbest thing I've heard relating to variance. Variance (or even cards, as it is related to poker) has no memory. Therefore each new hand doesn't get influenced by past results. Just because you run good X amount of hands it DOESN'T mean that you should run bad the next Y amount of hands. Variance is a continuous process that has no balance.
    • Zanardi1
      Zanardi1
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2010 Posts: 5,602
      Variance doesn't. It is correct what you say. However, probabilities have their own laws which will be obeyed on the long term.

      All it tells to me is that you ran super hot then poker variance took back what wasn't your, from an equity point of view.
      I wouldn't say it's the dumbest thing you heard :)
    • iSoOwnYou
      iSoOwnYou
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2014 Posts: 637
      Yes this could be worse, you could be 20 buyins under ev and -15 buyins like I am at the moment :P
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 5,333
      Yea I know what it feels like.. Couple of coolers and bad beats + a few bad palys -> -6bin in 1k hands. :f_eek:
    • Avataren
      Avataren
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2010 Posts: 1,621
      my friend is 100BI below EV in husng hypers :P that sucks. $2000 difference so hes pretty tired of variance :P