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5-Card Draw Multi-way trips in BTN

    • VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,706
      Feral Cow Poker
      PokerStars Limit 5 Card Draw $0.10/$0.20 - 6 players

      Button: $3.66 (Hero)
      SB: $2.32
      BB: $1.13
      UTG: $4.70
      UTG+1: $3.53
      CO: $2.18

      Dealing Hands: ($0.15) :6d: :6h: :8s: :4s: :6s: (6 players)
      2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.20, SB calls $0.15, BB calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10

      First Draw: ($0.80) (4 players)
      SB discards 3, BB discards 3, CO discards 2, Hero discards 1,
      :6d: :6h: :4s: :6s: || :Qh:
      SB checks, BB checks, CO checks, Hero ???
      Assuming all players have a pair higher than 6s -- and that is what I did assume -- should I bet here?

      Also assuming no two players have the *same* pair, then each player has an 89% chance of NOT drawing trips except for CO who has improved his chances of not drawing trips to 92%. So the chances of all of them not drawing trips is .89 x .89 x .92 = .72 so there is a 28% chance 1 of them drew trips -- ignoring all better hands.

      Similarly, the chances of them not getting two pair are .84 * .84 * .82 = 0.57

      So the questions:
      :diamond:   Clearly I should bet for value, as there a lot of worse draws that might call, but what to do if raised? At the micros, I'm folding, as they don't bluff enough post-draw, but what is "correct"?
      :diamond:   Action facing a single bet post draw?
      :diamond:   Action vs a raise and a call post-draw?

  • 1 reply
    • bigpooch
      Joined: 16.01.2012 Posts: 44
      Given the action, I'd expect the CUTOFF to have a pair with an ace kicker, the SB to have KK or AA ( maybe QQ but you caught one postdraw ) and the BB to have just about any pair.

      If none of the players would check a boat+, you have clear value bet. If all your opponents would autocheck to you and if none of your opponents will pay off unimproved, I think I calculated that it's marginal depending on the CUTOFF's range: if he could have a hand like 55A or worse, a bet is +EV; if he can't, due to the rake, your bet is very slightly -EV. It's possible that the CUTOFF doesn't even have a pair or will pay off with an unimproved pair. With all things considered, you should value bet any trips in this spot ( that's a good reason to draw one to trips ) and even value betting aces up is okay as long as the cutoff may pay off with just a pair ( after all, the pot's quite big ). You should also make a continuation bet on a failed isolation semibluff raise because if none of your opponents will pay off unimproved, about 37% of the time, nobody has made two pairs+ (assuming the CUTOFF had a pair and a kicker ), so your bet only has to work with a frequency of 5/24 ( due to the rake) ~ 20.83% of the time. Because most of your semibluffs contain an ace, value betting with aces up is important.

      If you get checkraised by the SB or BB, you usually expect to see trips+ but if you don't want to be exploitable you have a pay off from a game theoretic sense because you could have also held anything from aces up to 555 ( as well as busted flush draws ); however, against typical low stakes players, they will have trips+ the vast majority of the time in this situation. If the CUTOFF checkraises, you need to pay off because he could have made aces up ( or even small trips, if he started with something like 55A ). There is also a sophisticated play the SB can make if he thinks you'll fold ( maybe he thinks you have a semibluffing hand or will fold too often to the checkraise ): simply checkraise to blow out the other players in the pot.

      If the SB leads out postdraw, you have a pay off if nobody else called. If the BB leads out, you're not the last defender of the pot and so you have to guess what the BB's range is here; if it's only aces up or better, you probably have to fold because maybe an ace is tied up in the CUTOFF's hand making it less likely the BB has precisely aces up; however, if the BB defends very wide, he could have made small trips. If the CUTOFF leads out after the blinds check, you have to call; he could just have made aces up ( of course, if after calling the CUTOFF's postdraw bet, the SB then checkraises, you're looking at KKK+, so you fold ).

      If the BB cold calls after the checkraise, you're probably folding; if the CUTOFF cold calls the checkraise by the SB, he could just have aces up, but now what could the SB have? If there is any chance the SB is making a play, you should call; otherwise, fold. If the BB checkraises and the CUTOFF cold calls, you're probably folding. If the checkraiser doesn't have a history of checkraise bluffing, you should strongly consider folding unless this player also checkraises light ( with aces up or kings up).